Celtics vs Pacers Odds & Predictions for Game 4

It isn’t often that a team in any sport starts the season as the prohibitive favorite and basically rolls all the way to a championship.

As it stands at the moment, it looks as though the Boston Celtics are on track to do just that.

My Analysis, Odds & Predictions

We will get to that soon enough, but before we do, we need to take a closer look at the Eastern Conference Final to see if there is anything to suggest that the Indiana Pacers can make things interesting. Even if they can’t and Boston moves on to the NBA Finals, they still need to get past the Western Conference winner, but that is a conversation for another day. For now, let’s focus on what could be a series deciding Game 4 in the East. The Celtics are favored by 6 ½, with the point total set at 222 ½.

Boston Celtics Odds -280

To this point in the playoffs, the Boston Celtics have not really had to break too much of a sweat. The biggest surprise thus far is that the 2 games they have lost during their playoff run have come on home court. We say this is surprising because they lost just 4 times at the Garden during the regular season. Still, both series have proven to be pretty straightforward, with Boston beating both the Heat and the Cavaliers in 5 games. They might be about to go one better, though, as they head into game 4 against the Pacers with a 3-0 lead. It has not been totally smooth sailing in this round. The Celtics needed a late 3-pointer and OT to win Game 1 and won Game 3 on the road by just 3 points. Boston took 3 of 5 from Indiana in the regular season. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 versus Indiana, as well as 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against the Pacers. The OVER has hit in 8 of their last 10 versus the Pacers.

Indiana Pacers Odds +235

When a team enters the NBA playoffs as the #6 seed, we don’t expect to see them stick around very long. The Pacers have bucked the trend, though, and have made an impressive run all the way to the Eastern Conference Final, but sitting at 0-3, they might see their dream run come to an end sooner rather than later. They eased past a hobbled Milwaukee Bucks in Round 1, which was not a huge surprise, but taking out the Knicks in 7 games was a surprise. They have been close in 2 of the 3 games against the Celtics in this round, so can they keep the series alive on Monday night? The Pacers have been very good at home, winning 11 of the last 12, although their lone loss came in game 3. Theyn have covered in 4 of their last 5 and are 5-2 ATS at home in their last 7 games in May. Each of their last 5 meetings with Boston has gone OVER.

Celtics vs Pacers Betting Prediction

I don’t see the Celtics letting the opportunity to close things out pass, which is why I like them to win, although the Pacers might well do enough to cover. The wager that I really like here is the OVER.

Boston Celtics 118, Indiana Pacers 114

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Date & Time: Monday, May 27 at 8 PM EST
Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indiana
TV: ESPN

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Celtics vs Pacers Game 2 Conference Finals

Any realistic chance the Indiana Pacers likely had of upsetting the NBA-best Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals overall likely ended in Game 1 when the Pacers had a five-point lead with just over a minute left in regulation yet blew it in an OT loss.

Game 2 is back in Boston on Thursday with the Celtics again solid favorites on the NBA odds.

Expert Pick Celtics -8.5 (total 224.5)
What´s the Score? Celtics 120, Pacers 111

Indiana Pacers Betting Line +184

It would take too long to explain everything that happened late in Game 1 but the short answer is that Indiana had a five-point lead with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter, and they had a three-point lead plus possession of the ball with 10 seconds left. Despite all of this, they lost 133-128 in overtime. It was an epic collapse of mistakes and coaching mistakes – Rick Carlisle opted to not foul in the final seconds and Jaylen Brown tied it on a 3-pointer. Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton had a few awful turnovers late in regulation and OT as well as a couple of questionable shots.

Indiana became the first team since at least 1997-98 to lose a playoff game despite inbounding the ball up 3 in the final 10 seconds, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Haliburton was otherwise good with 25 points, 10 assists, three rebounds and three steals. After hitting six 3-pointers in Indiana’s Game 7 win over the Knicks, Haliburton hit six more in the Eastern Conference Finals opener. However, turnovers and a minus-15 margin at the foul line proved costly for the Pacers, In these playoffs, he’s averaging 19.3 points, 8.2 assists and 4.9 rebounds.

Pascal Siakam was great as well with Siakam having 24 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. In the final games of the Pacers’ second-round series win over New York, Siakam did most of his damage in the mid-range and restricted areas, which was also the case on Tuesday. He missed both 3-point attempts and did not attempt a free throw. Siakam has now scored at least 20 points in four straight outings.

Myles Turner was third starter with at least 20 points as he finished with 23 along with 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. He came out hot, shooting 7-of-10 from the field and scoring 18 points in the first half. He went quiet in the second half and overtime, only attempting three shots while most of the offense ran through Haliburton and Siakam. It was still Turner’s highest scoring game since May 6, and this was his sixth game of the postseason with at least 20 points.

Obi Toppin scored 15 points off the bench for the Pacers, and T.J. McConnell had 13 points. Overall, the Pacers shot 53.5 percent from the field, and the Celtics made 47.5 percent of their shots. Indiana’s 38 team assists tied the most for a playoff game in franchise history, which was achieved in Game 2 against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs. Indiana’s bench outscored Boston’s second unit 30-13.

However, the Pacers finished with 22 turnovers in the overtime loss, which are the most by them in the 2024 postseason and second-most all season. The Celtics turned those turnovers into 32 points. Turning the ball over was uncharacteristic for Indiana, which entered the game committing the second-fewest turnovers per game among playoff teams. The Pacers are now 0-3 in Game 1s these playoffs.

Boston Celtics Betting Line -233

The Celtics often have one game they play really poorly at home in these playoffs – just look at Game 2 losses to Miami and Cleveland. They actually played well for about three quarters on Tuesday but absolutely deserved to lose if not for the Pacers imploding and Jaylen Brown hitting an incredibly tough corner 3-pointer in the final seconds of regulation to tie it. Why didn’t the Pacers foul instead?

Indiana was 117-114 with 8.1 seconds left, with the Celtics inbounding the ball on the baseline. Fouling immediately wouldn’t allow Boston the chance at tying the game, thus creating a free throw battle in the final seconds. Lakers star LeBron James tweeted that he would choose to foul when up three points every single time. J.J. Redick said that he agrees with James. Dick Vitale tweeted that Indiana had the game won and never should have allowed the shot.

Indiana coach Rick Carlisle said he instructed the team to foul … but apparently Brown’s defender, Pascal Siakam, was worried about a possible four-point play.

Brown finished with 26 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals. In the final minute of the fourth quarter, Brown knocked down a pair of clutch free-throws, forced a critical Indiana turnover while trailing by three with 8.5 seconds remaining, and then knocked down the game-tying triple.

It was a huge bounce-back from Brown after he was held to 11 points in the final game of the previous series against the Cavaliers. He’s been terrific for most of the playoffs, as he’s hitting 54.8 percent from the field while averaging 23.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Brown has now scored 26 points or more in three of the team’s last four games, shooting 50% or better in each.

Jrue Holiday played great defense on Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton late in the game and played 48 of a possible 53 minutes, finishing with 29 points, eight assists, seven rebounds and three steals. Holiday has found his groove after struggling to begin this postseason. He’s shot 54.5% or better in each of Boston’s last four games, and the 28 points scored in Tuesday’s Game 1 were a postseason high.

Tatum led Boston with 36 points while adding 12 rebounds, four assists and three steals in 46 minutes. His 3-pointer with a little over 42 seconds remaining in overtime gave Boston a four-point lead. Tatum nearly single-handedly outscored the Pacers in the extra five-minute frame, finishing with 10 points to Indy’s 11. It was the first 10-point overtime period by an NBA player in a postseason game since 2021.

Tatum has now scored at least 33 points in three of his last four games. He, Brown and Holiday became the first trio of teammates in NBA playoff history to log at least 25 points and three steals apiece in the same game.

The Celtics again were without starting center Kristaps Porzingis due to a calf injury suffered in Round 1 vs. Miami. He will not play here, either, but could be back as soon as Game 4 in Indianapolis.