Who Saw This Coming? Biggest Surprises So Far and How They’re Affecting the MLB Odds

 

With the new MLB season almost upon us, it’s time to get serious about how we are going to wager on the upcoming games and division races.

MLB Teams that Have Surprised and Are Shifting the Odds | Current World Series Odds

For me, it all starts with trying to identify the teams that might surprise and perform better than expected, as well as those that will not live up to the preseason hype or expectations. In both cases, those are the teams that will see their MLB odds change dramatically over the course of the season. The way in which I identify the teams on both sides of the coin is to take a look at the win totals posted by the bookies and try to figure out who will go over and who will fall short. It’s an inexact science to be sure, but that is what I will be using to talk about the teams in this piece, so let’s dive right in.

Kansas City Royals

The future for this team looks very bright indeed and there is a lot of hype surrounding the Royals, especially after looking at what they have done in the preseason. This is a young group of players, and while they are coming off a horrible 56-win season, the general consensus is that they will take a big step forward this season. Their 2024 win total is set at 72 ½, which I think might be a little on the low side of the scale when you consider that the Central is one of the weaker divisions in the MLB. Do I think they will win the division and go on a deep playoff run? No, but I do think they have the ability to cross their current win total and have a decent year. I still think the Royals are a year or two away from seriously competing, but they could certainly shift the odds if they get out to a strong start.

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Baltimore Orioles

I need to start off this portion of the piece by saying that I think the Orioles will be strong again this season. That said, there are some concerns that things might not be as good as they were last season, when they went out and won the AL East. Their core group of players is still intact, but they are also in a division where we all expect the New York Yankees to have a bounce back year. This is a team that won a ton of close games last season to get 101 wins. In fact, had they lost all the 1-run games that they actually won, they would have ended the season with just 87 wins. They will be in the hunt to win the division, but their current odds might go the opposite direction if they start to lose those close games.

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Detroit Tigers

Let’s stick with the AL Central to look at another team that might be in a position to shift the odds this season. The Detroit Tigers finished 2nd in the division last season, and while they were a good way off the pace set by the Twins, the eventual winners of the division, they proved that they were a team on the rise. The Tigers went 78-84 overall, which is certainly not particularly great, but it was a vast improvement over what we have seen from them in recent years. The feeling is that their performance last was just the first step in much better things to come. The bookies don’t see a huge improvement coming this season, with the win total for the Tigers set at 80 ½. That said, given the wide-open nature of this division, just beating that total by 5 or 6 games could potentially put them on top.

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St. Louis Cardinals

Every season, fans and pundits have a sexy pick for the upcoming year. It would seem that the Cardinals are that team this season, at least based on the current odds. The Cardinals finished dead last in the NL Central last season, going 71-91, yet they are in as the favorite to win it in 2024, mostly based on the moves they made in the offseason. Whether this team excels and delivers as expected or simply goes in the tank and has a similar, or perhaps even worse, season than last year, they are going to have an impact on every team in the division and their odds. For me, the Cardinals are going to be one of the more interesting teams to keep an eye on this season to see how quickly perceptions might change about their prospects.

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Houston Astros

They say that death and taxes are the only things you can count on in life, but in sports, the Astros making a deep run in the playoffs also seems like a given. They have made a habit of making it to the ALCS over the past 6 or 7 years and the feeling is that they will be in that conversation again. It is worth remembering, though, that they needed a tiebreaker to win the West last season and ended up losing to the Texas Rangers, the team that finished 2nd, in the playoffs. If the Rangers can build on their World Series winning season, they could knock off the Astros and send Houston’s odds in the wrong direction.

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Philadelphia Phillies

If you ask the average baseball fan who they believe will represent the National League in the World Series, the vast majority will probably name the LA Dodgers or the Atlanta Braves. That is a more than fair response, as both teams are loaded and very much in the World Series conversation. That said, I would not sleep on the Philadelphia Phillies, a team that has knocked off the Braves in the postseason in each of the last 2 seasons. Their win total for 2024 is set at 90 ½, so they are likely to be in the conversation in the NL East, especially if the Braves take any kind of backward step this season.

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MLB Odds to Win 2024 World Series – Top 10

• Los Angeles Dodgers +350
• Atlanta Braves +500
• Houston Astros +750
• New York Yankees +950
• Baltimore Orioles +1300
• Texas Rangers +1300
• Philadelphia Phillies +1400
• Toronto Blue Jays +1800
• Seattle Mariners +2000
• Minnesota Twins +2500

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?

MLB Vegas Lines
MyBookie Odds for the Games

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February 22, 2024

As the Major League Baseball season moves closer to and closer to the start of play, we look closer and closer as betting odds for the season.

Today, we want to discuss teams that have surprised and are shifting the odds and with MLB preseason starting up today, things should start to look much more interesting. These MLB World Series odds will continue to shift as the rest of the season plays out.

2024 MLB World Series Odds Update: Teams that Have Surprised and Are Shifting the Lines

As the Major League Baseball season moves closer to and closer to the start of play, we look closer and closer as betting odds for the season.

Today, we want to discuss teams that have surprised and are shifting the odds and with MLB preseason starting up today, things should start to look much more interesting. These MLB World Series odds will continue to shift as the rest of the season plays out.

 

2024 MLB World Series Odds Update: Teams that Have Surprised and Are Shifting the Lines | Baseball Betting Analysis for the Season

2024 MLB | 155th edition of professional baseball in United States
Wednesday, March 20th – Sunday, September 29th, 2024
162 Games | 30 Teams

 

Houston Astros

Not really sure this is a surprise, but the odds have been interesting for this squad ever since Dusty Baker elected to retire as the manager. New leadership, but many of the same talented roster will play in Houston. The Astros seemingly are a threat to win the World Series every year, and have been one to watch when it comes to odds. They are +820 to start the season.

Houston Astros
World Series Odds: +820 | Odds for the World MLB Series MyBookie Betting Lines for the Title

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Philadelphia Phillies

A season removed from reaching the World Series, but falling a bit short. Many are wondering how long the Philadelphia window is going to stay open, but the talent is still there with this team. They have starting pitching, and deadly bats. Can the bullpen hold up their end of the bargain? The Phillies are +1500 to win the World Series, but do not be surprised to see this move lower as the season goes along.

Philadelphia Phillies
World Series Odds: +1375 | Odds for the World MLB Series MyBookie Betting Lines for the Title

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Seattle Mariners

This is a team that is ready to make the jump. Julio Rodriguez is the top guy in the lineup that can do the big time damage. We are projecting a MVP type season from Rodriguez. The pitching staff is still ready to bust it. The Mariners are hoping 2024 is the season it all comes together and they can get out of a tough American League West.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

For a team that reached the World Series a season ago, 32/1 odds seems to be a little juicy. The Diamondbacks certainly played a little over their heads a season ago. But, this is still going to be a talented team that will have momentum and experience on their side. Corbin Carroll is ready to lead, and be a consistent force in the postseason.

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St. Louis Cardinals

In what was probably the most disappointing team in Major League Baseball a season ago. St. Louis made some changes to their pitching staff, and guys like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are ready to show it was a one year fluke. Young guys Jordan Walker and Mayson Wynn are ready to make the step up. The Cardinals at 34/1 odds are intriguing to look at.

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Tampa Bay Rays

The last team on our list that we are surprised by the odds is the Tampa Bay Rays. Sure, the American League East is torture to manuever through, but this is still a franchise that finds ways to win games. Seeing a team that gets to the postseason often at 40/1 odds is worth taking a look at. The Rays have young talent, but can they hit enough will be the question for 2024.

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Previous Betting News

Now that we are in the middle of June, the MLB standings are really starting to heat up in each league. MLB World Series odds have been available since the end of the 2022 season, but they have continued to be changing every single day.

This has been a strange year in MLB as several of the top teams in the preseason have really started to fade to begin the year. On the other side of that, there have been plenty of teams that have surprised, and those teams have impacted the odds in a big way.

These might be the odds on June 15th, but they were not the odds to begin the season. These MLB odds will continue to shift as the rest of the season plays out, but some teams have really come out of nowhere.

MLB World Series Betting Update: Teams that Have Surprised and Are Shifting the Odds | MyBookie Baseball Preview

2023 World Series: Begins on Friday, October 27, 2023

Big Surprises

The Houston Astros were big betting favorites to win the World Series in Spring Training, but the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays have taken control. Atlanta is rolling to a huge lead in the NL East, while the Tampa Bay Rays are nearly unbeatable at home.

The Texas Rangers are a huge surprise this season, and their odds have gone all the way from +3600 when the season began to +1400 now. Texas is leading the AL West Division, and they have seen one of the biggest jumps.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+2700), and the Baltimore Orioles (not listed at +3200) have both seen huge jumps in the odds after great starts as well. Both teams look like solid contenders to win the title this season, but they still have plenty that has to be proven.

Other Teams Fading Fast

The National League East Division was supposed to be loaded with great teams this season, but it just hasn’t played out that way so far this season. Atlanta has jumped out to a big lead, and the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies haven’t been able to keep pace.

New York (+2600) and Philadelphia (+2800) are still in a solid position based on the odds, but their first order of business will be getting to the postseason. There are other teams on the list that have seen their odds drop a bit, but they still have better odds than these two teams.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox are two of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season, and their odds have fallen fast, and in a big way. St. Louis is now the worst team in the National League, and those odds continue to fall.

Chicago was never a huge favorite to win the World Series, but no one expected them to struggle to keep pace in the AL Central Division.

Bet World Series Odds to Win

Top Teams to Win the World Series

Here is a current look at the odds to win the World Series: 

 

 

Previous Betting News

Now that we are in the middle of June, the MLB standings are really starting to heat up in each league. MLB World Series odds have been available since the end of the 2022 season, but they have continued to be changing every single day.

This has been a strange year in MLB as several of the top teams in the preseason have really started to fade to begin the year. On the other side of that, there have been plenty of teams that have surprised, and those teams have impacted the odds in a big way.

These might be the odds on June 15th, but they were not the odds to begin the season. These MLB odds will continue to shift as the rest of the season plays out, but some teams have really come out of nowhere.

MLB World Series Betting Update: Teams that Have Surprised and Are Shifting the Odds | MyBookie Baseball Preview

2023 World Series: Begins on Friday, October 27, 2023

Big Surprises

The Houston Astros were big betting favorites to win the World Series in Spring Training, but the Atlanta Braves and Tampa Bay Rays have taken control. Atlanta is rolling to a huge lead in the NL East, while the Tampa Bay Rays are nearly unbeatable at home.

The Texas Rangers are a huge surprise this season, and their odds have gone all the way from +3600 when the season began to +1400 now. Texas is leading the AL West Division, and they have seen one of the biggest jumps.

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+2700), and the Baltimore Orioles (not listed at +3200) have both seen huge jumps in the odds after great starts as well. Both teams look like solid contenders to win the title this season, but they still have plenty that has to be proven.

Other Teams Fading Fast

The National League East Division was supposed to be loaded with great teams this season, but it just hasn’t played out that way so far this season. Atlanta has jumped out to a big lead, and the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies haven’t been able to keep pace.

New York (+2600) and Philadelphia (+2800) are still in a solid position based on the odds, but their first order of business will be getting to the postseason. There are other teams on the list that have seen their odds drop a bit, but they still have better odds than these two teams.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox are two of the biggest disappointments in baseball this season, and their odds have fallen fast, and in a big way. St. Louis is now the worst team in the National League, and those odds continue to fall.

Chicago was never a huge favorite to win the World Series, but no one expected them to struggle to keep pace in the AL Central Division.

Bet World Series Odds to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Games

 

 

Previous Betting News

The Major League Baseball Trade Deadline is Friday afternoon so odds to win the World Series likely will change between now and then, but one contender already made a big splash and that’s the already-loaded San Diego Padres acquiring Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier for prospects. The Friars are +700 on the MLB odds to win their first-ever World Series. Unfortunately for them, they are stuck in the same division as the title favorites, the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are +450.

Analysis World Series | MLB 2021

Frazier, 29, leads all Major League players with 125 hits and his .324 batting average ranks second in the National League behind Nick Castellanos (.329). Frazier has gone 22-for-61 (.361) in his last 15 games and is hitting .345 (90-for-261) in his last 67 games, dating back to May 8.

He has a track record of being a high-contact hitter, and this year he has reduced his strikeout rate to a career-low 10.6. He also has hit four home runs and swiped five bases. Frazier is not a free agent until after the 2022 season. Frazier was the Pirates’ second-longest tenured player, behind right fielder Gregory Polanco.

Frazier is the 3rd player in the Modern Era (since 1900) to be traded midseason at the time he led MLB in hits. He joined Willie McGee (1990 — STL to OAK) and Red Schoendienst (1957 — NYG to MLN).

Thing is, the Padres didn’t really even need him because they already have an All-Star second baseman in Jake Cronenworth, but he can play just about everywhere as can Frazier. While Frazier has made all his starts this season at second base (other than one at DH), he has played more than 1,000 innings in the majors in the outfield. Cronenworth has started games at first base and shortstop besides second.

In fact, San Diego could start an entire All-Star infield in Cronenworth at first, Frazier at second, Fernando Tatis Jr. at shortstop and Manny Machado at third. Frazier presumably will make his Padres debut Tuesday vs. Oakland.

The Padres are on pace for 92 wins but find themselves looking up at the Giants and the Dodgers in the National League overall and the NL West, and this could be the first of several moves GM A.J. Preller makes. The Padres are banged up in the rotation so they could add an arm too.

Another team that has added a big-time offensive player is the Chicago White Sox, who are +500 to win their first World Series since 2005. The Pale Hose saw the season debut of young slugger Eloy Jimenez on Monday night in Kansas City. Jimenez tore his left pectoral tendon in late March and the prognosis was that he’d miss five to six months of action. The expectation was that he’d likely miss nearly the entire season or perhaps come back for part of September in hopes of getting up to game speed for the playoffs, but he has recovered faster than anticipated.

Jimenez, 24, has played 177 games in his MLB career. He’s hit .276/.321/.527 (122 OPS+) with 32 doubles, 45 homers and 120 RBI. The White Sox have a massive lead atop the AL Central despite ranking also 14th of 15 AL teams in home runs. Jimenez will clearly help there. Jimenez finished fourth in AL Rookie Of The Year voting in 2019 and he won a Silver Slugger last year as he helped lead the White Sox into the postseason.

Jimenez should help the team against right-handed pitching. His slugging percentage and OPS are both higher against righties than lefties and the Sox have struggled against some of the better righties in the league. They rank 28th in OPS against right-handers they’ve faced on plus-.500 teams.

‘‘Everybody’s fired up,’’ Manager Tony La Russa said of Jimenez. ‘‘He’s playing the outfield with good movement, he’s throwing and he’s reaching balls defensively. At the plate, he’s swinging free and easy. It’s going to be more about timing. We’ll know more when we see him ourselves, but it’s full speed ahead.’’

Another terrific young hitter, Luis Robert, just began a rehab assignment himself after Robert went on the injured list in May with a hip flexor strain.

 

 

Previous Betting News

2018 World Series betting is just about to heat up. Pre-season World Series favorites, like the Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees, have garnered plenty of action. But, like what happens around this time every year, a few teams shake up the 2018 World Series odds.

Check out who those teams are.

Surprise MLB Teams that are Shaking Up the 2018 World Series Odds

Every season, teams like those listed below throw a wrench into World Series Odds. Teams like those below weren’t supposed to challenge for the Fall Classic. Yet, here they are, in contention. Let’s do a deeper dive into each team.

Atlanta Braves

2018 World Series Odds: +1200

At 12 to 1 on MyBookie, the Braves are a legit contender to win the NL Pennant and the World Series. Where did this come from? Only two seasons ago, Atlanta was arguably the worst team in Major League Baseball. Now, the Braves lead the NL East over the Washington Nationals. The Braves are doing it without a true ace. Atlanta does rank fifth in team hitting, though.

The Braves team batting average is a healthy .259. Atlanta’s 98 home runs ranks fourth behind Boston, Houston, and Seattle.

Milwaukee Brewers

2018 World Series Odds: +1000

The Brew Crew fought the Chicago Cubs until the very end for the NL Central Division last season. By a game and a half, Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central over the Chicago Cubs. That could all change quickly, which is why the Cubs are at +800.

But, Milwaukee wasn’t supposed to lead the NL Central at any point this season. Most baseball analysts had the Brewers in third place behind the Cubs and Cardinals. Plenty of baseball bettors believe in Milwaukee as evidenced by their 10 to 1 odds on MyBookie.

Philadelphia Phillies

2018 World Series Odds: +1500

Here’s another NL team whose odds have been cut down significantly since the beginning of the season. What’s up with Philadelphia? Atlanta was one of the worst teams in MLB a couple of seasons ago. Philly has been one of the worst teams in MLB in what feels like a decade.

This season, the Phillies do have an ace in Jake Arrieta. Not only that, but as of July 6, they’re second in the NL East Division with a 47 and 37 record. Philadelphia’s ascension has caused World Series Odds to go so whacky that preseason +800 choice Washington’s odds are now at +1800.

Seattle Mariners

2018 World Series Odds: +750

The Mariners are the only AL team that shows up on the list. Anybody who said that they knew Seattle would pose a challenge to World Series Champion Houston winning the AL West Division is lying.

The Mariners are only a game and a half behind the Astros in the AL West. Seattle can not only score, the team batting average is .260 and they’ve hit 105 home runs, but they can also pitch. The bullpen ranks eleventh in ERA with a 3.75. The starting rotation ranks twelfth in team ERA with a 3.87.

Both James Paxton and Wade LeBlanc are legitimate ace pitchers. Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, and Marco Gonzalez all have winning records. Gonzalez’ ERA is 3.64. That’s why the Seattle Mariners odds have dove to less than +800. They’ve got a great rotation that they back up with a decent bullpen.