AL Wild Card Game 2: Tigers vs Astros

The Detroit Tigers upset the AL West champion Astros in Houston in Game 1 of their Wild-Card Series on Tuesday, and the Tigers could punch their ticket to the ALDS against Cleveland with a win in Game 2 on Wednesday afternoon.

However, Houston is a solid favorite on the MLB odds to force a Game 3.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Astros -170, Tigers +151 (total 7.5)
Expert Prediction: Astros 4, Tigers 2

Why Bet on Detroit?

The Tigers posted a Major League best 31-13 record from August 11 until the end of the season. It was the team’s best record over the final 44 games of a season since 2011, when Detroit went 32-12. The Tigers led the majors with a 2.72 ERA (401.0IP/121ER) over that stretch, while also ranking first with a +62 run differential. Detroit’s 43 road victories were their most in a season since winning 45 in 2014. The Tigers finished the season by winning eight of their last 10 games away from Comerica Park.

Job’s not finished. pic.twitter.com/gbMxfBZlfy
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) October 2, 2024

Key Factors

One of the major keys to the Tigers success in the second half of the season was their athleticism and aggressiveness on the base paths. From August 1 until the end of the season, Detroit led the Majors by going first to third 41 times. During that stretch, the Tigers were thrown out just once, posting a 97.6% success rate.

In the Playoffs

Detroit is in the postseason for the 17th time in franchise history, and for the first time since 2014. The Tigers earned a Wild Card berth for the second time in franchise history (2006). Outfielder Matt Vierling is the only player on the Tigers Wild Card roster that has previous postseason experience after appearing in 12 games with Philadelphia during the 2022 playoffs.

They improved to 58-62-1 all-time in the playoffs, including 28-34-1 on the road, with Tuesday’s 3-1 victory despite two of the team’s best hitters in Kerry Carpenter and rookie Colt Keith not starting because Houston started a lefty. Carpenter hit a grand slam in Sunday’s finale and since returning from the injured list on August 13, Carpenter slashed .286/.348/.605 with six doubles, one triple, 10 home runs and 28 RBI. Among American League hitters in that span (min. 100 plate appearances), he ranked second in slugging percentage, third in OPS (.954), tied for third in home runs, sixth in RBI and tied for 10th in extra-base hits (17).

Game 1 Stars

Beau Brieske got the final two outs against the Astros for a save in Game 1 on Tuesday. Jason Foley opened the ninth with a 3-0 lead and gave up a rocket double to Yordan Alvarez and then a pair of rather unlucky hits on grounders, making it a 3-1 game. Jeremy Peña followed with a sac bunt that advanced both runners. With the Tigers wanting strikeouts more than grounders at that point, Brieske replaced Foley and finished the job.

Reese Olson

It’s expected to be Olson today, but he could follow an opener. Olson (4-8, 3.53 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits across four innings and did not factor into the decision last Friday against the Rays. He struck out three. Reese was limited to only 72 pitches in his third start back from a shoulder injury. The 25-year-old had a solid campaign overall, posting a 3.53 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while recording 101 strikeouts across 112.1 innings. He set a career high in innings pitched and games (22).

Olson allowed one earned run-or-fewer in six consecutive starts from April 26-May 25, over which he had a 0.77 ERA (35.0IP/3ER) with six hits allowed, 11 walks and 29 strikeouts. He became the second Tiger in franchise history to post a sub-2.00 ERA while allowing 40-or-fewer hits through his first 10 starts of a season, joining Tom Timmermann in 1972. Olson has never pitched in the postseason and didn’t face Houston this season.

In the brief history of the best-of-three Wild Card series, teams that win Game 1 have gone on to advance 14 out of 16 times. Teams that have won it on the road have advanced eight out of 10 times, including seven two-game sweeps.

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Game Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on Houston?

After April 27, the Astros went 79-53 (.598) in their final 132 games, which was the second-best record in the Majors in that span. Houston is making its 18th postseason appearance in what is the 63rd year of the franchise that began in 1962. This season marks the 13th time in club history for the Astros to enter the postseason as a division winner. Since 2017, the Astros have played more postseason games (98) and have earned more postseason wins (59) than any other club. None of that helped Tuesday.

Houston is playing in the Wild Card round for the third time overall. The Astros are 3-1 all-time in it following that loss, dispatching the Yankees in the one-game playoff in 2015 and sweeping the Twins in the 2020 Wild Card round. All three of those previous games were on the road.

Alex Bregman

Third baseman Bregman, a free-agent-to-be, has played seven full seasons in the Majors (2017-23) and has advanced to at least the ALCS in every full year, winning two championships. He has 19 career postseason homers and 54 career postseason RBI, both MLB records for a third baseman. Second baseman Jose Altuve ranks second in postseason history in homers (27), second in runs (89), tied for third in hits (117), tied for third in extra-base hits (48), seventh in games (103) and seventh in RBI (55).

Yordan Alvarez

The Astros did have All-Star outfielder/DH Alvarez in the lineup for Tuesday’s 3-1 loss. Alvarez hadn’t played since Sept. 22 due to a knee injury suffered while sliding. He was 2-for-4 Tuesday but no RBIs. Houston’s lineup didn’t get on the board in Game 1 until a nail-biting ninth inning, when Jason Heyward lined out to first base with the bases loaded to end the game.

Hunter Brown

It’s expected to be right-hander Brown on the mound. Brown (11-9) allowed a run on three hits and three walks while striking out eight over six innings to take the loss versus the Mariners in his final regular-season start on Sept. 23. Hunter has six quality starts over his last seven outings. But despite his strong pitching over that stretch (2.11 ERA in 42.2 innings), he has a 1-2 record. He finished with a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, with a career-high 179 strikeouts over 170 innings through 31 outings (30 starts). Brown’s April was atrocious, with a 9.78 ERA, then on May 5, he decided to bring back the two-seam fastball/sinker he threw in college. Since then, Brown has pitched to a 2.51 ERA and has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball.

“Man, his development has been phenomenal,” Astros manager Joe Espada said. “Just how he started and where he’s at now and how he’s able to execute and stay calm, navigate really good lineups and throw all his pitches. In any count, he can throw all his pitches. His progress has been really, really good.”

Astros Manager Joe Espada's thoughts on today's 3-1 loss in game 1 of the Wild Card series vs the Tigers:

"I thought we were one swing away there before getting back in that ball game.. We ran into a pretty good left-handed pitcher.. Skubal has been really good all year.. We had… pic.twitter.com/8e8JZkZP6t
— Tyler Milner (@tmilrealdeal) October 2, 2024

Brown has faced Detroit five times in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA (9ER/27.2IP) in those contests. He grew up a Tigers fan and is a native of Detroit, where he was born and raised and went to grade school (Isaac Jogues Catholic School), high school (Lakeview HS) and college (Wayne State University). Brown has posted a 1.69 ERA in 10 2/3 innings in seven career playoff games in 2022 and ’23, but he’s never started a postseason game before.

Tigers at Astros Info

When: Wednesday, 2:30 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park
Pitchers (away/home): Reese Olson/Hunter Brown
TV: ABC
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+