MLB Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds and Prediction for Friday’s Game

The New York Yankees are in a free-fall and their playoff hopes are on life support. The rival Boston Red Sox could all but end them this weekend as the teams open a series at Yankee Stadium – their last series there of the year (still one in Boston). Let’s see the MLB betting picks for this great game between Red Sox vs. Yankees

Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 19: Monday August 14 – Sunday August 20, 2023

How to Bet Boston at New York MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Probable pitchers (away/home): Brayan Bello/Jhony Brito
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: Apple TV+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -120, Yankees +100 (9)

Why Bet on Boston?

Boston is 6-4 so far in a stretch of 13 games against sub-.500 teams. Prior to this stretch, the Sox went 4-7 in a stretch of 11 games against teams with a winning record.

The Red Sox didn’t help their wild-card chances this week by dropping two of three at the Nationals, capped by Thursday’s brutal 10-7 defeat when Boston appeared to have the clear pitching advantage. For some reason, Manager Alex Cora didn’t start three of his best hitters in Justin Turner (he is slightly banged up), Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran.

But one-time ace Chris Sale couldn’t make it through the fifth inning in his second start back from a shoulder injury, and Boston suffered another blow to its playoff hopes. The Red Sox fell to 7-8 in August and slipped 3 1/2 games behind AL East rival Toronto for the final wild-card spot. Trevor Story was terrible in the series without a hit.

In July, Boston showed what it was capable of offensively, putting together a sturdy batting line of .284/.340/.475 during a 15-8 month. August has been a completely different story. In the first 14 games of the month, the Sox are 7-8 largely due to a lineup that is slashing .236/.293/.404. Rafael Devers, the club’s most dangerous hitter, had just one homer and three RBIs in the month until hitting a two-run shot on Thursday. Maybe that wakes him up.

It’s new young ace Brayan Bello on the mound here. Bello (8-7) took the loss last Saturday as the Red Sox fell 6-2 to the Tigers, giving up four runs on nine hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out five without walking a batter. The right-hander got taken deep by Kerry Carpenter in the second inning and Eric Haase in the fifth. Bello now has allowed 10 homers in seven starts since the beginning of July. Over that stretch, he’s been saddled with a 5.19 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 29:8 K:BB through 40.1 innings.

Boston is 13-7 in his starts this year and leads the Sox in starts (20) and innings (113.1). Has tossed 6.0+ innings in 10 of his last 12 starts, including 3 of his last 4. Bello earned the win in his last start vs. the Yankees on June 18, allowing one run over seven.

The Red Sox own MLB’s best record when leading after 6 innings (49-3, .942). In 2022, they ranked 18th in MLB when leading after 6 (63-10, .863). Boston leads MLB in save % (78.3; 36-for-46).

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Why Bet on New York?

The Yankees were off on Thursday after a disastrous road trip that ended with a five-game skid and knocked the Yankees to 60-61, their first time under .500 this season and the first time the last-place Yankees have had a losing record at least 120 games into a season since Sept. 5, 1995, when they also were 60-61. It is their first losing record at any point since they were 13-14 in 2021.

The Yankees, who haven’t missed the playoffs since 2016, are 6½ games back of the American League’s last wild-card berth. New York has finished with a winning record in 30 consecutive seasons. The offense simply hasn’t been very good overall this year. Among the regulars, only Aaron Judge and Gleyber Torres carry an OPS+ above league average. The Yankees were 10th in the AL in runs in 2021, first in 2022, 10th again in 2023. Judge is in a five-game HR slump.

Jake Bauers has been a useful bat for the Yankees this season, especially in the recent absence of Anthony Rizzo (concussion), but the 27-year-old first baseman and corner outfielder is 0-for-12 with eight strikeouts in his last three games. Rizzo will not play in this series.

Since July 4, when they were 10 games over .500, the Yankees are 12-23 and have been outscored by 51 runs. Over the same period, they are 28th in the majors in runs scored and 24th in runs allowed.

It is looking more and more like Manager Aaron Boone will not be back in 2024, but he still has hope for this year: “The game is still littered with examples of teams going on unlikely runs. I get it looks bleak and I don’t want to even suggest that we’re in a position to even talk about a streak like that. We’ve got to fix our own house and get going.”

The rotation is a mess right now for the most part other than Gerrit Cole due to injury and ineffectiveness. The Yankees placed Nestor Cortes on the injured list last Friday, and he likely will miss the rest of the season. That came four days after Carlos Rodon hit the IL again. Domingo German, on the restricted list as he seeks treatment for alcohol abuse, will not pitch again in 2023. Luis Severino is simply terrible.

So it will be rookie Jhony Brito (4-5, 4.76) on the mound here. Brito has previously made 12 starts for the Yankees this season, but he thrived as a bulk reliever his last time out Saturday in Miami, where he struck out six and gave up one run on three hits and no walks over five innings. Brito has never faced Boston.

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Expert Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

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