Big Game for Twins: Can They Top AL Central Leaders?

Big game in the AL playoff race on Monday night as the Minnesota Twins open a series at the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians.

The Twins aren’t catching Cleveland in the division, but currently hold down the AL’s final wild-card spot. Minnesota is a short favorite on the MLB odds behind Pablo Lopez.

Minnesota Twins -119

The Twins were able to avoid what would have been a crushing home series sweep vs. Cincinnati with a 9-2 win Sunday even though regulars such as Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton all were out of the starting lineup for rest/matchup reasons. It’s a good thing the Twins aren’t in the NL, though, as they are 17-26 in interleague action this year compared to 62-44 vs. AL foes. Sunday’s win allowed Minnesota (79-70) to maintain a 2 1/2-game lead over Detroit (77-73) for the last AL wild card spot.

Byron Buxton

Buxton had just returned Friday from missing a month with a hip injury, and had gone 2-for-6 with a solo homer in two games back. In his last 45 games dating back to June 11, Byron is hitting .331 (51- for-154) with 15 doubles, 14 home runs, 35 RBI, a .392 on-base percentage, a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.106 OPS. Since that date, he leads baseball (min. 150 PA) in slugging, ranks second in OPS, sixth in batting average, and 10th in on-base percentage. Buxton’s strikeout percentage of 26.4% is down 5.0% from 2023 (31.4%) and is his best since 2021 (24.4%).

Jose Miranda

On the bench for the third time in four games against a right-hander, Miranda may now be in more of a part-time role after the Twins recently welcomed back Byron Buxton and Correa back from the injured list. Correa went 1-for-2 with a double Saturday in his return from a two-month absence due to plantar fasciitis. In his last 30 games, since June 9, Correa is hitting .388 (45-for-116) with eight home runs, 23 RBI, a .454 on-base percentage, a .647 slugging percentage and a 1,100 OPS.

Pablo Lopez

It’s right, Lopez on the hill Monday. Lopez (15-8) earned the win last Tuesday against the Angels, allowing four unearned runs on eight hits and one walk over seven innings. He struck out 10. Lopez picked up his sixth consecutive quality start — and 17th of the season — with a dazzling 105-pitch performance.

Although he generated only 13 whiffs in the evening, Lopez managed to post his third double-digit strikeout game of the season, marking his first since punching out 14 at Oakland on June 23. After pitching to an unsightly 5.11 ERA across 104 innings in the first half, the 28-year-old has returned to ace form since the All-Star break, firing a 1.92 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 62:12: K:BB over 65.1 innings.

Lopez is facing Cleveland for the first time since the April 4 home opener at Target Field; he took the loss, allowing four runs (3 ER) on six hits, one walk and two strikeouts in 5.2 innings, in a 4–2 Guardians win. Lopez has a 3.64 ERA (29.2 IP, 12 ER) in five career starts vs. Cleveland.

Cleveland Guardians -103

The Guardians most likely aren’t going to be caught by the second-place Kansas City Royals in the AL Central. Cleveland enters on a two-game winning streak after a victory Sunday over Tampa Bay. Leadoff hitter and outfielder Steven Kwan was out of the starting lineup for a third straight game due to general body fatigue. “We’re taking it day-by-day so it doesn’t turn into anything big,” Manager Stephen Vogt said, adding this has nothing to do with the hamstring injury that forced Kwan to miss a month earlier in the season.

Steven Kwan

Perhaps a few days off is exactly what Kwan needs to get healthy and get right to the plate. Since he led off for the American League in the All-Star Game in the middle of July, Kwan has a batting average of just .201 and a .589 OPS. Pitchers are respecting his propensity to yank a fastball inside the foul pole. So they’re instead tossing him secondary stuff low and away.

Kwan has never endured a stretch like this, and he’s Cleveland’s catalyst, always plugged into the top spot in manager Stephen Vogt’s order. He’s the primary reason José Ramírez and Josh Naylor have ranked among the league leaders in RBIs all season. The Guardians’ offense functions at its optimal rate when Kwan’s in a groove. Hitting coach Chris Valaika said he’s been working to keep Kwan thinking positively. “Every year,” Valaika said, “there’s been something he’s had to grow and adjust to.”

The Guardians lead MLB with 33 outfield assists this season (MIA – 29), the club’s most in a season since 2019 (38). Lane Thomas paces MLB with 25 outfield assists since the start of 2023, ahead of the Cubs’ Ian Happ (23). Kwan ranks tied for fifth with 19 outfield assists in that span.

José Ramírez

Cleveland has tallied 51 stolen bases since Aug. 4, ranking 3rd in MLB in that span. Ramirez leads MLB with 19 steals over that stretch, and is second in the AL with 39 stolen bases overall. He is one stolen base away from being the first Cleveland player with a 40-stolen-base season since Rajai Davis in 2016 (AL-high 43SB). Andres Gimenez’s 29 steals are T6 in the AL. Ramírez and Giménez are seeking to become the first Cleveland duo to swipe 30-or-more bases each in the same year since Roberto Alomar (39SB) and Kenny Lofton (30SB) turned the trick in 2000.

Can you believe the hustle of José Ramírez?!

The 🐐 scores from second to give Lane Thomas a two-out, two-RBI infield single to put the @CleGuardians ahead early in the Windy City.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/NBjEq8RDBB

— Bally Sports Cleveland (@BallySportsCLE) September 11, 2024

Matthew Boyd

It’s lefty on the hill, Monday. Boyd didn’t factor into the decision in last Wednesday’s 6-4 win over the White Sox, allowing four runs (one earned) on six hits and two walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out nine. All four runs against Boyd came in the third inning, though three were unearned following an Andres Gimenez throwing error.

While 4.1 innings marked the shortest outing for Boyd this year, he was able to record a season-high nine strikeouts. Overall, the left-hander is 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 35:7 K:BB across six starts (33 innings) since returning from Tommy John surgery in mid-August.

Cleveland has now won five of the first six games Boyd has started since coming off the injured list. He has a .190/.244/.314 opponent slash line against him this season. He’s also limited his opponents to one earned run or fewer in five of his six starts.

“He’s so poised. He’s so prepared,” catcher Austin Hedges said. “He’s so beneficial for our young pitchers here. He’s so good at communicating with them when he’s not pitching.”

Boyd is 9-8 with a 4.62 ERA in 23 career appearances vs. the Twins. He last faced them in 2023 while with Detroit.

Twins at Guardians Info

When: Monday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Progressive Field
Pitchers (away/home): Pablo Lopez/Matthew Boyd
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

MLB Betting Center

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