Dominate Your MLB Bets: Week 19 Picks and Analysis

Every team in the MLB has now crossed the 100-game mark, so we are definitely heading into the homestretch in the regular season.

There are some fantastic divisional battles going on at the moment, and even in the divisions where there is a clear leader, there are still enough games to come where a lead still doesn’t feel totally safe.

My Analysis

Of course, for the teams chasing the leaders, the pressure is on to close the gap and make it a race all the way to the end.

Every team will be looking to end the week on a high note, so let’s take a look ahead at the weekend action.

As we always do at this time, we are going to pick out 4 games that we really like against the spread, so let’s get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks over Pittsburgh Pirates

Friday, August 2, 6:40 PM | While these two teams are very similar in terms of wins and losses, it is the Diamondbacks who are on the better run of form at the moment.

They have won 3 in a row heading into the weekend and have also won 7 of their last 10. They are now just 5 games out of the lead in the West and very much in the Wild Card race.

The Pirates have been playing .500 ball over the last 10 games and were on the losing side of things in their previous series against the D-Backs.

I also like the pitching matchup here, with Luis Ortiz (5-2, 2.75 ERA) on the mound for Arizona.

San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies

Friday, August 2, 9:40 PM, MLBN | In terms of form, you can’t get much better than the Padres right now, as they have won 9 of their last 10 games to move into the 2nd spot in the NL West.

On the flipside, the Rockies are struggling at the bottom of the division.

Despite all of that, Colorado has had the number of the Padres, winning 5 of their 7 meetings to this point in the season, but this is very much about current form for me.

The Padres are rolling and should get this series off to a winning start.

Cincinnati Reds over San Francisco Giants

Saturday, August 3, 7:15 PM, FOX | This is the second series between these two teams this season, with the Giants winning 2-1 in the previous meeting, although that one was played in San Francisco.

This time, the Giants will be taking their 21-33 road record to Cincinnati for 3 games.

I like the reds to flip the script and get the win in this series, with the Saturday game the one where I really like them to win.

I really like Hunter Greene (7-4, 2,97 ERA) on the mound for this one.

Kansas City Royals over Detroit Tigers

Sunday, August 4, 1:40 PM | After years of toiling in the cellar, the Kansas City Royals have bounced back this season and are very much in the Wild Card hunt, tied with the Twins for the final spot.

They can help their cause with a series win over the slumping Detroit Tigers, a team that they have beaten in 4 of 6 meetings this season.

The Royals have won 3 in a row heading into the weekend, while the Tigers are on a bit of a skid, winning just 3 times in their last 10 games.

After some time off for the All-Star Game, baseball is back this weekend with a full slate of games.

Players who did not take part in all the festivities will need to shake off some rust and get back into action as we head into the second half of the season and the final push for playoff spots.

My Analysis

As we do every week at this time, we are going to pick out a few games that we like in terms of betting against the spread, but this week could be a little tougher than usual.

The reason for that is because we do not yet know all the pitching matchups for the weekend, with that information playing a big role in the games we usually pick.

We are going to do our best to use a variety of other data to make these picks, so keep that in mind before you wager.

Cleveland Guardians over San Diego Padres

Friday, July 19, 7:10 PM, Apple TV+ | I think it’s fair to suggest that both of these teams were happy to see the break given that they had both gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.

The Guardians, though, are in a much better spot than the Padres right now, as they are sitting atop the AL Central with a 4 ½ game lead.

Another thing to like about Cleveland is that they have had some success in interleague play, going 12-8 versus the NL, while the Padres are a game below .500 when going against teams from the AL.

Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox

Friday, July 19, 8:10 PM | This is something of a no-brainer pick based on nothing more than the previous meetings between these teams this season.

They have played 7 times already, with the Royals coming away with the win 6 times. 5 of those 6 wins have been by 2 or more runs.

That is about as close to total domination as you can get. The White Sox went into the break on a 4-game losing skid, so they may have a hard time getting out of that right away when they return.

All of this adds up to a comfortable win for the Royals.

Atlanta Braves over St. Louis Cardinals

Saturday, July 20, 7:20 PM | With so many changes to their lineup this season, it took a moment for the Cardinals to get rolling, but they ended the first half in pretty good shape.

The Braves have not lived up to expectations for a variety of reasons, perhaps most notably because the Phillies have been great in the NL East.

It was the Cardinals who took 2 of 3 from Atlanta earlier this season, but those wins came at home.

They will have a much tougher time on the road against a Braves team that is 29-17 in their own building.

New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays

Sunday, July 21, 1:35 PM | This is the final series of the season between these teams, who have already played 9 times this season.

It is the Yankees who lead the season series 5-4, and with these final games coming at home, you have to like their chances to win the season series.

I really like them on Sunday with Marcus Stroman on the mound. He has gone 7-4 this season, posting an ERA of 2.51.

The Rays will have Shane Baz, who has pitched just 10 innings all year, on the mound. This looks like a mismatch to me.

We are not quite in the homestretch in the MLB season, but with most teams closing in on 100 games played, we are certainly getting close.

For the most part, there are some clear leaders at the top of the divisions in both leagues, although we have 2 that are still very close and up for grabs.

My Analysis

Even with the divisions that look pretty much set, this is not time for the leaders to relax, as a bad run of form could see things tighten up over the next couple of months.

For every team, it’s all about taking one series at a time, starting with another big weekend of action.

With that in mind, let’s see if we can pick out some ATS winners for this weekend.

Philadelphia Phillies over Oakland A’s

Friday, July 12, 6:40 PM | The Phillies are one of the teams that look to be very comfortable at the top of their division.

As it stands now, they are 8 ½ games up on the Atlanta Braves and have a chance to build on that with a weekend series against the lowly /sportsbook/mlb/oakland-athletics/.

The Phillies are at home for this one, which is big when you consider that the A’s have only managed 13 wins in games played on the road this season.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are an impressive 35-14 in their own building and will have Tarik Skubal on the mound. He is 6-0 with a 1.74 ERA in home games.

Atlanta Braves over San Diego Padres

Friday, July 12, 9:40 PM | This is perhaps my riskiest pick for the weekend, especially when you consider that the Padres took 3 of 4 from the Braves when they met earlier in the season.

The Braves have also been pretty mediocre on the road, going 22-23, but they might be running into the Padres at the right time.

At the time of writing, the Padres are on a 4-game losing skid, which is all the more disappointing when you consider that they have lost the chance to close the gap on the slumping Dodgers.

This one is more of a hunch play than anything else, to be honest.

Toronto Blue Jays over Arizona Diamondbacks

Saturday, July 13, 10:10 PM | If truth be told, the playoffs are really not in the cards for either of these teams, so both are basically playing out the season.

The Blue Jays head out west with a 21-26 road record, which is certainly not that convincing.

That said, the Diamondbacks have not necessarily been lighting it up at home, playing .500 ball at 23-23.

What swing things in the favor of the Jays for me in this game is the D-backs starting pitcher, Yilber Diaz, who has only pitched 6 innings all season.

I think the Jays might be able to get to him early.

Seattle Mariners over LA Angels

Sunday, July 14, 4:07 PM | The Mariners are at the top of the AL West, but things are close, with the Houston Astros sitting just 2 games behind.

They appear to be pulling out of a bit of a mini slump, winning each of their last 2 games, but they are also not that great on the road, going 21-25.

That said, they should still be more than good enough to handle the Angels, who they swept earlier in the season.

This could be another sweep, but I particularly like Seattle on Sunday with Logan Gilbert (6-5, 2.94 ERA) on the mound.