Dodgers at Yankees 2024 World Series Game 4 Odds, Preview & Expert Pick – L.A. lead 3-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers try to sweep the New York Yankees for their first World Series title since 2020 on Tuesday night in Game 4, but New York is a solid favorite on the MLB odds to force one last home game on Wednesday.

Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, World Series Game 4: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Why Bet on Los Angeles?

Freddie Freeman homered for a third straight game as the Dodgers bested the Yankees 4-2 to take a 3-0 lead in the World Series on Monday. There has not been a sweep in 11 consecutive World Series, with the last sweep coming by the Giants in the 2012 World Series over the Tigers. A total of 11 consecutive World Series without a sweep is the second-longest stretch in World Series history, behind a 12-year streak from 1977-1988 which saw no teams record a World Series sweep.

Good night. #WorldSeries pic.twitter.com/KLRQ010Yeb

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 29, 2024

The team with the home field advantage (hosting four of possible seven games) has been victorious in 27 of the last 37 (73.0%) World Series beginning in 1985 (excluding 2020 neutral site). It is just the second time the Dodgers have won each of the first three games of a World Series after previously going up 3-0 in 1963 against New York en route to earning a series sweep. Overall, it is the third time that they lead a best-of-seven series 3-0, winning the 2017 NLCS and 1963 World Series.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman, who struggled in the NLDS and NLCS while dealing with a sprained ankle, opened the scoring in Game 3 with a two-run homer in the first inning and has now hit a home run in each of the first three games in this World Series. He is the third player to hit a home run in each of the first three games of a World Series, joining Barry Bonds (2002) and Hank Bauer (1958). Along with his home runs in Game 5 and 6 of the Braves’ 2021 World Series run, Freeman has homered in each of his last five World Series games, tying George Springer for the most consecutive World Series games with a home run. Springer set the record with a homer in five straight games, including Games 4, 5, 6 and 7 in 2017 and Game 1 in 2019.

Freeman is going to win World Series MVP as he’s batting .333 (4-for-12) with three homers, seven RBI, a triple, a walk, three runs scored, a .385 on-base percentage, a 1.250 slugging percentage and a 1.635 OPS. Freeman’s seven RBI in the World Series are tied with Pedro Guerrero (1981), Davey Lopes (1978) and Hall of Famer Duke Snider (1955) for the second-most by a Dodgers player within a single World Series.

Shohei Ohtani

After suffering a subluxation of his left shoulder in Saturday’s Game 2, Ohtani was in the lineup on Monday night. He walked in the first and was hit by a pitch in the ninth but was otherwise quiet, finishing the night 0-for-3 to fall to 1-for-11 in the Series.

Walker Buehler

Buehler blanked the Yankees for five innings to earn the win in Game 3. Walker, who was 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular-season starts, has earned some money by pitching nine scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts in two postseason outings. Because Buehler went five strong, the L.A. bullpen is in great shape for today’s bullpen game, although it’s not clear who may open it. Could be Ryan Brasier or Anthony Banda or Michael Kopech.

In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams taking a 3-0 lead have gone on to win the series 39 of 40 times (98%), including 31 sweeps. Just two teams down 3-0 have even forced a Game 7: the 2020 Astros, who lost to the Rays in the ALCS, and the 2004 Red Sox, who beat the Yankees in the ALCS. The last team to force a Game 5 when down 3-0 in a World Series was the Reds in 1970 against the Orioles.

Why Bet on New York?

The only bright spot of Game 3 was Alex Verdugo’s two-run homer in the ninth to supply all the runs for New York. Gleyber Torres drew a pair of walks and Juan Soto drew a walk, extending both of their on-base streak to 12 games. The streaks are tied for the fourth-longest within a single Yankees’ postseason with Hall of Famer Derek Jeter owning each of the top-four. Jeter reached base safely in 15 consecutive games in 2009; 14 consecutive games in 2000; 13 consecutive games in 1996; and 12 consecutive games in 1999.

Austin Wells

Catcher Wells, an AL Rookie of the Year candidate, was benched after going 4-for-41 with a 41 percent strikeout rate in these playoffs, but replacement Jose Trevino was no better. New York is batting just .186 as a team in this World Series. The Yankees face a 3-0 hole in the World Series for the fourth time in franchise history: 1922 against New York Giants; 1963 against Los Angeles; and 1976 against Cincinnati, being swept in four games in each of the previous three occasions. Overall, it is the sixth time that they trail a best-of-seven series 3-0, being swept each of the previous five times.

Aaron Judge

“Takes just one,” said Judge, who is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts in this Series. “All it takes is one swing, one at-bat, one play. Everything changes for us. That’s just the mindset you’ve got to have going into this.”

Overall in these playoffs, Judge is 6-for-43 (.140) and 42-for-214 (.196) in his postseason career. Judge has no hits in his last two World Series games and the Yanks are 17-34 (postseason included) when Judge does not have a hit in a game.

“Hopefully we can go be this amazing story and shock the world,” Manager Aaron Boone said. “But right now it’s about trying to get a lead, trying to grab a game, and force another one, and then on from there.”

Luis Gil

It’s rookie righty Gil on the mound Tuesday. Gil will make his second start of the postseason after tossing four innings of two-run ball in Game 4 of the ALCS at Cleveland on Oct. 18. A leading candidate for the AL’s Rookie of the Year Award, Gil faced the Dodgers on June 9 at Yankee Stadium, taking a no-decision as he permitted three runs over 5 2/3 innings in a 6-4 Yankees win.

.@RealMichaelKay and @PaulONeillYES preview Game 4, as Luis Gil is set to take the bump for New York.#YANKSonYES pic.twitter.com/Yw8VqGgCe2

— YES Network (@YESNetwork) October 29, 2024

But Gil showed signs of tiring this season with a career high in innings. In five July starts (in which he pitched to a 3.33 ERA), his four-seamer averaged 97.5 mph. In five September starts (in which he pitched to a 4.00 ERA), that fastball averaged 95.6 mph.

The Yanks are opting for Gil over ace Gerrit Cole on short rest. Cole pitched six-plus, one-run innings in Friday’s Game 1 loss in Los Angeles. He was not overly taxed by pitch count at least, finishing at 88, but will not be an option to return on three days of rest.

How to Watch Dodgers at Yankees

When: Tuesday, 8:08 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Bullpen day/Luis Gil
TV: FOX
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Live

MLB Betting Center

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