NBA Betting Mavericks at Kings: Week 11 2024 NBA Expert Analysis

The Dallas Mavericks recently lost superstar Luka Doncic to injury and the Sacramento Kings recently fired their head coach, so there is a lot going on ahead of their meeting from California’s capital city on Monday with the Mavs favored on the NBA odds.

NBA Betting Mavericks at Kings: 2024 NBA Expert Analysis in Week 11

NBA Betting Mavericks at Kings Odds & TV Info

NBA Betting Odds: Dallas +129 / Kings -159
When: Monday, 10 PM ET
Where: Golden 1 Center
TV: NBA TV
Stream: NBA.com, NBA TV app
Radio: Tunein.com ^

Dallas Mavericks Analysis

It has been a rough stretch for Mavs star and NBA MVP candidate Luka Doncic. He is going to miss several weeks after sustaining a left calf strain in Wednesday’s Christmas Day loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Although there was no contact on the play, Doncic appeared to suffer the injury on a drive to the basket in the second quarter while being defended by Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels.

Luka Doncic

The left leg continues to be a problem area for Doncic, who has strained his left calf three times in recent years. He also missed the entire preseason with a left calf contusion and recently returned from a left heel contusion. If he was to be reevaluated in 30 days from the day of the injury as was the early diagnosis, Doncic will miss at least 15 games and be eliminated from contention for the NBA’s awards, such as MVP and the All-NBA teams. Doncic, a first-team All-NBA selection over the past five years, has averaged 28.1 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.8 assists per game in 2024-25.

And then on Friday night, the home of Doncic was burglarized in the latest in a series of break-ins at the residences of high-profile athletes. Jewelry valued at about $30,000 was stolen, according to a police report.

Against Trail Blazers

Dallas is 1-1 in two full games since Doncic went down with this latest injury after being upset 126-122 in Portland on Saturday in the second of a back-to-back. After Dallas mounted a fourth-quarter comeback, Portland’s Deandre Ayton stole the ball from Klay Thompson on the perimeter with 20 seconds remaining to ice the game. The Blazers outrebounded Dallas 50-40 and outscored them in the paint 58-38.

The Forwards

In addition to Doncic and injured center Dereck Lively, the Mavs played without forwards Naji Marshall and PJ Washington for their role in a fight during Friday’s game against Phoenix. Washington got one game so he’ll play Monday but Marshall got four. Kyrie Irving led all scorers with a season-high 46 points and was the only consistent offensive threat for the Mavericks on Saturday. Spencer Dinwiddie largely was the fill-in for Doncic and had 17 points, eight rebounds and four assists.

Jason Kidd

Coach Kidd plans to be careful about not overtaxing his starters to make up for Doncic’s absence.

“The big picture is always in focus,” he said. “Running (Kyrie Irving) up over 40 minutes, that puts us in a different situation. We have to lean on our leader here to help us, but that doesn’t mean running his minutes up to 40, 42 minutes as the final way to win. We believe we have other guys that can eat minutes and play at a high level. We’ll have that opportunity with Luka out.”

The Mavericks are 7-0 when holding their opponents under 100 points this season. Dallas’ 22-game home winning streak against the Kings from 2003 to 2016 was its longest ever home winning streak against one opponent.

Sacramento Kings Analysis

Over the weekend, the Kings fired head coach Mike Brown less than halfway through his third season with the team. General manager Monte McNair called the move a “difficult decision” and thanked Brown for his work. He named assistant Doug Christie, a former player, as interim coach. Christie had been an assistant with the Kings since 2021-22 and played in Sacramento for five of his 15 NBA seasons.

Mike Brown

One of Brown’s issues this year was losing in close games. The Kings have lost an NBA-worst nine games after leading in the fourth quarter with the most woeful one coming in Brown’s final game as coach Thursday night against the Detroit Pistons. Overall, Sacramento is an NBA-worst 3-11 record in games decided by five points or fewer.

Against LA

Not much changed in Christie’s first game as head coach on Saturday as Sacramento lost its sixth in a row, 132-122 at the Lakers, who didn’t even have LeBron James due to illness. Los Angeles erupted for 12 straight points to end the third and start the fourth to open up a 20-point advantage. Star Kings big man Domantas Sabonis picked up his fifth foul with 4:17 left in the third, and he was clearly missed as the Lakers pulled away by attacking the paint when he was on the bench.

Domantas Sabonis

Sabonis would foul out with 5:20 remaining in the game. He finished with 14 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists in 26 minutes, returning after a one-game absence due to an illness. He extended his double-double streak to nine contests, though, averaging 20.7 points, 15.4 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game in that stretch. De’Aaron Fox had 29 points in the losing effort with a season-high 12 assists for his fourth double-double of the year.

Doug Christie

After the loss, Christie told reporters that the key to turning the season around is getting a commitment from his players on both ends of the court. Christie had a 15-year NBA career as an intense competitor who specialized in defense, and he wants to bring that same attitude to the team. Third-year guard Keon Ellis may see a larger role as the Kings try to upgrade their perimeter defense.

“We have enough,” Christie said. “This is a message that I said to them. There is enough in this locker room, but how we get over that is the types of things I’ve talked about. The consistency, the focus, the willingness to play for my team at such a high level that it hurts and I have to come out of the game. It’s up to me to be able to find that.”

The team’s ownership and front office have made it clear that there’s no “grace period” and that results are expected immediately.

Mavericks vs Kings Season Series

This is the first of three regular-season meetings. They split four last season, oddly with each team winning both on the road. The Mavericks are 103-80 (.563) all-time against the Kings franchise (61-31 at home, 42-49 on the road). Dallas star Luka Doncic is averaging 27.4 points (.456 FG%), 10.1 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 17 career games (7-10 record) against the Kings. The five-time All-Star has recorded at least 20 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in 15 of those 17 games but he’s currently out injured so the Kings won’t have to worry about him.

NBA STANDINGS UPDATE ‼️

▪️ OKC wins 11th straight
▪️ ATL wins 4th straight, moves to 5th in East
▪️ MIN wins 3rd straight

Download the NBA App for more: https://t.co/pBKIAWOrdI pic.twitter.com/weQ8SYwh6P

— NBA (@NBA) December 30, 2024

 

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2020 Mavericks vs Kings

 

If you take a look at the current standings in the NBA, you will see that the top teams in each conference are starting to open up a little bit of a gap on the chasing pack. With so many games still to play, though, it is still way to early to crown either the Milwaukee Bucks or the LA Lakers, although both teams look to be very tough to beat this season. The real fun in the conference battles can be found in the batch of teams sitting off the pace being set by the leaders. Those races are so tight that a team can find themselves moving up or down rather quickly based on an especially positive or negative run of form.

We are going to see the standing change on an almost daily basis the rest of the way, so it should be fun to watch. As it stands right now, the Dallas Mavericks are in the thick of the playoff hunt on the Western Conference and they will try to move up when they hit the road to face the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night. The Mavericks are in as a 4-point favorite, with the point total set at 228 ½.

Mavericks vs Kings 2020 NBA Odds, Game Info & Prediction

• When: Wednesday, January 15 at 10 PM EST
• Where: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento
• TV: NBA TV
• Radio: SiriusXM
• Live Stream: NBA League Pass
• NBA Odds: Dallas Mavericks -4 (Total 228.5)

Why bet on the Dallas Mavericks?

The Mavericks have seen their stock fall a little over the last couple of weeks, going just 5-5 in their last 10 games, although they do seem to be heading back in the right direction after winning 2 in a row ahead of this one. The Mavericks are now sitting at 25-15 on the season, which has them 8 games out of first place in the Western Conference.

They are on a bit of an island in the #6 seed right now and could use a few more wins to start catching the pack of teams sitting ahead of them. Dallas lost 110-106 at home when they faced the Kings earlier this season, which is surprising given that they are a solid 18-5 when facing teams with a losing record. They are now 1-5 SU and ATS in their last 6 versus Sacramento.

Team Stats

Offense

• Total Score: 116.33
• Field Goal Percentage: 46.25
• Three-Point Percentage: 36.33
• Free Throw Percentage: 77.07
• Total Rebounds: 47.72

Defense

• Total Score: 108.95
• Field Goal Percentage: 44.78
• Three-Point Percentage: 33.51
• Free Throw Percentage: 77.22
• Total Rebounds: 45.13

Why bet on the Sacramento Kings?

The Sacramento Kings are now so far off the pace in the Western Conference that you might be willing to start suggesting that their season is all but over. They are sitting at 15-25 on the season, and while that leaves them just 3 ½ games back of the playoff line in the Western Conference, it may as well be a million miles, as this team is showing no signs of having what it takes to close that gap.

The Kings come into this one on the heels of back to back losses that has seen them fall to just 3-7 in their last 10 games, they have not had a lot of joy against teams with a winning record, going 6-11 in those outings. They are 4 games below .500 at 8-12 on home court.

Team Stats

Offense

• Total Score: 106.35
• Field Goal Percentage: 45.30
• Three-Point Percentage: 35.72
• Free Throw Percentage: 78.29
• Total Rebounds: 42.47

Defense

• Total Score: 109.13
• Field Goal Percentage: 46.46
• Three-Point Percentage: 34.58
• Free Throw Percentage: 79.67
• Total Rebounds: 43.50

Mavericks vs Kings 2020 NBA Betting Trends

• Kings are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games this season
• Kings are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games at home
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento’s last 9 games
• Mavericks are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Sacramento
• Mavericks are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Wednesday
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games on the road

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction for Mavericks vs Kings

The Sacramento Kings have proven to be a bit of a bogey team for the Mavericks, but I think that Dallas can correct that with a win on Wednesday night. I am on the Mavericks to win and cover the spread.

Score: Dallas Mavericks 116 – Sacramento Kings 109

 

 

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