NBA Cup Quarterfinals Lines: Warriors vs Rockets Expert Analysis – MyBookie NBA Picks

The NBA Cup quarterfinals conclude on Wednesday night with two games and the late one is from the Western Conference as Golden State visits Houston with the winner advancing to the semis.

The Rockets are short favorites on the NBA odds but have lost 15 straight in the series.

Golden State Warriors Cup Lines +105

The Warriors have followed a five-game skid by winning two of three after a 114-106 home win over Minnesota on Sunday – after losing at home to those Timberwolves by 17 points on Friday. In Sunday’s win, Buddy Hield scored 27 points, including consecutive 3-pointers midway through the third that tied the game at 69 and another that put Golden State ahead. Hield had seven 3s and is one shy of becoming the 17th player in NBA history to reach 2,000.

Steph Curry

Curry led the way with 30 points while adding eight assists and four rebounds. It was a vintage performance from Curry, capped by a three-pointer from nearly half court just ahead of the buzzer at the end of the third quarter. While sore knees have caused the future Hall of Famer to sit out two of the Warriors’ last six games, Curry’s been productive when he’s been on the court, scoring at least 23 points in each of his last five appearances and averaging 25.6 points, 6.8 assists, 4.8 boards and 4.6 threes over that stretch.

Curry is four steals shy of 1,500 career. He would become the 53rd player in NBA history to reach the milestone. Curry is ranked third in the NBA in free throw shooting percentage (93.4). Curry is also the NBA all-time free throw shooting percentage leader at 91.0 percent (Steve Nash is second at 90.4 percent). Prior to this season, Curry has led the league in free throw shooting percentage four times (2010-11, 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2017-18).

Just another night for No. 3️⃣0️⃣ pic.twitter.com/NhIkFgwrgu

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) December 9, 2024

Jonathan Kuminga

Kuminga had 20 points and seven rebounds and recorded multiple blocks in a game for the first time this season while scoring at least 20 points for the second time since Nov. 10. Kuminga missed a couple of contests in late November due to an illness but has looked revitalized since making his return, starting five of the last six games and averaging 20.8 points and 5.0 rebounds.

Draymond Green

Green played 30 minutes in Sunday’s win and had six points, six rebounds and seven assists. Green was back in the starting lineup after coming off the bench on Friday. Andrew Wiggins’ absence was the reason for the change as Wiggins was out with an ankle injury but hopes to play here. With Green serving as the starting center, Trayce Jackson-Davis picked up a DNP-CD on Sunday.

The Warriors (14-9) have the fifth-best record in the Western Conference and lead the Pacific Division. The Warriors have the fourth-highest defensive rating (107.6) and tied with tonight’s opponent, Houston, for the 15th-highest offensive rating (112.4) by NBA.com. The Warriors are ranked second in the NBA in rebounding (47.8 rpg), trailing only Houston (49.9); fifth in assists per game (29.2 apg), 11th in scoring (114.1 ppg). Golden State is ranked third in the NBA in opponent 3-point field goal percentage (33.4 3P%) and tied for third in opponent field goal percentage (43.8 FG%). The Warriors are also ranked fourth in deflections per game (18.6).

The Winning Streak

Meanwhile, Golden State’s 15-game winning streak against the Rockets is the second-longest active streak in the NBA, behind only the Knicks’ 16-game winning streak versus the Pistons. The Warriors have played in 14 clutch games this season, winning seven of them. Clutch games are games in which the score is within five in the final five minutes of the game.

Houston Rockets Cup Lines -128

Houston snapped a two-game skid with a 117-106 win at the Clippers on Sunday despite playing without starting point guard Fred VanVleet, who missed his second game of the season because of a right knee contusion. The Clippers were already missing James Harden (sore right groin) when two more players went down. Amir Coffey sustained a right shoulder contusion in pregame warmups and starter Derrick Jones Jr. left after the first quarter with right hamstring soreness. Their bench still outscored the Rockets’ reserves, 38-21, but they were outdone 50-33 on the boards.

Fred VanVleet

With VanVleet out, Amen Thompson moved into the starting lineup and had a season-high 22 points along with eight rebounds and four assists. In 25 career starts, the second-year player is averaging 13.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.6 apg and 1.6 spg while shooting 58.4%.

Jalen Green

Green had 31 points. His shot wasn’t exactly falling as he was just 9-of-20 from the field, but he made five 3-pointers and got to the foul line eight times and made all of his free throws. Over the past five games, Green is averaging 24.6 ppg on 47.4% shooting after averaging 12.5 ppg on 32.1% shooting the 4 games prior.

Jalen Green put on a SHOW in Los Angeles! 🤩

📊 31 PTS @MemorialHermann | #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/ZfMmw89bzv

— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) December 9, 2024

Dillon Brooks

Brooks had 19 points, seven rebounds and five assists. Over the past eight games, Brooks is averaging 15.1 ppg on 46.9% shooting up from 11.6 ppg on 39.5% shooting the first 16 games; the Rockets are 12-3 when he scores 15+ points this year.

Alperen Sengun

Sengun had a double-double of 11 points and 10 rebounds while adding six assists. The double-double was his 16th of the season in 24 games, tying Sengun for sixth in the NBA with Anthony Davis in that category. Sengun hasn’t gone more than two games in a row this season without pulling down double-digit boards, and his 10.6 rebounds a contest puts him 10th in the league. He’s also added 18.5 points and 5.3 assists per game.

Jabari Smith

Smith had 13 points and 12 rebounds as the double-double was the fourth of the season for Smith, and he recorded at least one rejection and one made three for the seventh straight contest. The inconsistent 21-year-old is averaging 11.4 points and 8.3 boards while shooting 42.1 percent (16-for-38) from beyond the arc but only 44.4 percent overall from the floor.

Houston is 15-1 when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season and 1-7 when trailing. The Rockets were 34-6 when leading after three quarters of play last season and 7-35 when tied or trailing. The Rockets are 3-3 in games decided by 5 or fewer points this season, including 2-2 by 3 or fewer. The Rockets are 16-3 when leading by 10+ points this season and have 9 wins by 10+ points, including 5 by 20+. They are 2-6 when trailing by double digits this season and lost by 10+ points once.

Houston is 1-3 in games in which it was both outshot and outrebounded this season. The Rockets were 9-19 when being outshot and outrebounded in 2023-24 after going 4-94 over the previous three seasons combined.

How to Bet NBA Cup Quarterfinals Lines

When: Wednesday, 9:30 PM ET
Where: Toyota Center
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app

Warriors vs Rockets Season Series

Golden State leads 2-0. They played most recently last Thursday in San Francisco and the Warriors prevailed 99-93 as Jonathan Kuminga scored a career-high 33 points and made two crucial layups over the final 1:04. Andrew Wiggins added 23 points and Brandin Podziemski grabbed 12 rebounds. The Dubs were without All-Stars Stephen Curry and Draymond Green because of injuries. Alperen Sengun had 16 points and eight rebounds to lead Houston – which has lost 15 consecutive games to the Warriors, which is tied for their longest streak against any team (Lakers in the late 1960’s). The Rockets also have lost eight straight at home to the Warriors, with six of those losses coming by double-digits.

UPDATED #EmiratesNBACup Bracket 🏆

▪️ OKC advances to West Semifinals
▪️ MIL advances to East Semifinals

The Quarterfinals continue tomorrow on ESPN and TNT! pic.twitter.com/tbZPquekSC

— NBA (@NBA) December 11, 2024

 

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2018 Warriors at Rockets, Playoffs

  Wow, who saw that coming? The Golden State Warriors never – NEVER – blow a double-digit fourth-quarter lead at home but that’s exactly what they did Tuesday night in a truly stunning loss to the Rockets in the Western Conference Finals. The series heads back to Houston on Thursday tied 2-2 with the Warriors as very slight NBA odds favorites.

2018 Playoffs Preview: Warriors at Rockets NBA Odds & Game Info

When: Thursday, 9 PM ET Where: Toyota Center, Houston TV: TNT Stream: Watch NBA Radio: 95.7 FM (Golden State) / 790 AM (Houston) NBA Odds: Warriors -1 (219.5)

Why Bet on Houston?

The Rockets have to be feeling confident with home-court advantage back following the 95-92 shocker on Tuesday. It was Houston’s first-ever playoff win at Golden State and ended the Warriors’ 16-game home playoff win was snapped, which was the longest in NBA history. The Rockets shook off a 41-point embarrassment in Game 3, a 12-0 deficit to start Tuesday and another big run by the Warriors in the third, then won it with defense down the stretch. Chris Paul hit a huge late 3-pointer and finished with 27 points, two rebounds, four assists, a steal and five 3-pointers. Paul helped the Rockets go on a 25-12 run to end the game. After Steph Curry led the Warriors to a 34-17 rout in the third quarter it looked like this game, and series, were over, but the Rockets pulled off a miracle. Paul also had two of his four assists during the 24-9 run that gave the Rockets the lead for good, capping it with a feed to Eric Gordon for a 3-pointer that put Houston up five with 2:27 to play. Paul had been dealing with pain in his right foot since Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals, but he doesn’t plan on taking any time off.

What Does Chris Paul Have to Say of His Small Injury?

“It’s about as good as it’s going to be right now,” Paul said. “But for us, it’s not about that. It’s about going out there and getting stops and making big plays when we needed to.” James Harden led the Rockets with 30 points in the win. He had 3 steals and 2 blocks, marking his third game with multiple steals and blocks this postseason (4 prior in playoff career). Harden played 43 minutes in Game 4, marking just his 2nd with more than 38 these playoffs (38.7 mpg first five postseasons with Houston). PJ Tucker 44 minutes in Game 4 after only logging more than 38 minutes once prior as a Rocket. He had 16 rebounds, marking the second-highest total of his career (regular season or playoffs). Clint Capela had 13 rebounds in 24 minutes of play and is on pace to become first player to have averaged at least 13.0 ppg, 11.0 rpg and 2.00 bpg in fewer than 31.0 mpg in a single postseason since blocks became a statistic in 1973-74.

Why Bet on Golden State?

Golden State got the ball with 1:27 to play down 94-91 in Game 4 and Klay Thompson and Steph Curry each missed contested 3-pointers. The Warriors got another chance with 42.5 seconds left following Houston’s shot-clock violation. Curry missed a driving layup and Draymond Green pulled down the offensive rebound and was fouled by Chris Paul, but Green converted only one free throw. The Warriors were outscored 25-12 in the fourth quarter. Those 12 points in the fourth are tied for their fewest in a playoff game in the shot clock era. It was the first time in the Steve Kerr era (regular season or playoffs), that the Warriors outscored their opponent by 15+ points in the 3rd quarter and lost.  They were 51-0 entering when outscoring an opponent by 15+ points in the 3rd quarter. The Warriors went 3-for-18 from the field in the 4th quarter (16.7%), their worst shooting quarter this season. In addition to the bad shooting, the Warriors had some mental lapses with the game on the line. For example, they didn’t call time out to stop a broken play during a critical late-game possession.

How Well Was Curry in Game 4?

Curry took over in the third quarter when the Warriors went on a 34-17 run to take control of Game 4. He finished with 28 points, six rebounds, two assists, two steals and six 3-pointers on 10-of-26 shooting in 39 minutes. Curry also got a last-second opportunity after Chris Paul made a free throw with 0.5 seconds left on the clock but couldn’t get it to go down. In the last two games, Curry scored a total of 35 points in the 3rd quarter. He scored 28 in the other 6 quarters. Kevin Durant had 27 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and a 3-pointer on 9-of-24 shooting in 43 minutes. With the Warriors only down two points in the final 10 seconds, and with a timeout remaining, Durant had the ball and could have worked his way to the basket, or at least found an open man, but chose to pass the ball to Thompson, who threw up a bad shot in traffic. Since Durant joined the Warriors, they are 2-2 in playoff games vs the Rockets and 17-2 against all other opponents. Thompson played through his sore left knee but was a bit gimpy on his way to just 10 points on 4-of-13 shooting with two 3-pointers and that missed late shot. The Warriors played without Andre Iguodala in Game 4 with a knee injury but it’s likely he returns for Game 5.

Latest NBA Betting Trends

• Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
• Golden State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State’s last 7 games
• Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
• Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 7 games

Expert NBA Betting Prediction

The Warriors just don’t play poorly in back-to-back games and should have Iguodala back. Take Golden State.  

 

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