NFL Week 3 Must Bet Games & Expert Analysis

It is natural to overreact to the events of Week 1 when a new NFL season begins, but if you wait it out, things tend to have a way of returning to normal, or at least getting somewhat closer to what we expected.

That said, there are a couple of teams who are overperforming, as well as a couple who are already in a little bit of trouble.

My NFL Betting Analysis in Week 3

I mean, look at the AFC North right now. Did anyone really expect the Steelers to be perfect at 2-0, while the Ravens and Bengals are still looking for their first win?

It has been a cray couple of weeks, and with some huge games coming in Week 3, things might be about to get crazier still.

Let’s look ahead to the upcoming week and pick out 4 games that we love.

The Steelers are the current kings of the AFC North 👀 pic.twitter.com/oYDIY6VPHN
— PFF (@PFF) September 16, 2024

Houston Texans -142 at Minnesota Vikings +116

When: Sunday, September 22, 1:00 PM, CBS
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

We said that there have been some surprises in the early going, and you have to say that seeing the Minnesota Vikings atop the NFC North at 2-0 and very much in there in terms of a shock.

This is a team still basically in a rebuild, so this fast start is definitely a surprise.

Not so surprising is the Houston Texans sitting at 2-0, as they proved last season that they are a team ready to compete at the highest level.

A road trip for the Texans against a team sure to be on a high is never easy, but you would have to like Houston’s chances of moving to 3-0.

Philadelphia Eagles +114 at New Orleans Saints -139

When: Sunday, September 22, 1:00 PM, FOX
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA

At the time of writing, we are still waiting to see the Eagles in Week 2, as they will play their second game of the season on Monday night against the Atlanta Falcons in a game that you would expect Philly to win.

They will hit the road on a short week to face a New Orleans Saints team that has looked brilliant through the opening 2 games.

They blew out the Carolina Panthers in Week 1, which was somewhat expected, but they then went into Dallas and dropped 49 points on the Cowboys.

This is another huge test for the Saints.

LA Chargers +104 at Pittsburgh Steelers -127

When: Sunday, September 22, 1:00 PM, CBS
Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

We have another two teams sitting at 2-0 going head-to-head in Week 3 in what looks like a fantastic matchup.

Chargers QB Justin Herbert looked a little banged up at the end of their Week 2 win over the Carolina Panthers, but the expectation is that he will be fine for this one.

The Chargers have given up just 13 points through their opening 2 games, which could be bad news for a Steelers’ offense that looks to still be finding its feet.

That said, the Steelers D looks totally elite, so might we see an epic defensive battle here?

Baltimore Ravens -117 at Dallas Cowboys -104

When: Sunday, September 22, 4:25 PM, FOX
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Heading into this season, both of these teams were viewed highly by fans and pundits alike, but 2 weeks later, both teams have some serious questions to answer.

The Ravens looked to be well on their way to their first win of the season this past weekend versus the Raiders, but they gassed the lead and ended up losing, falling to 0-2 in the process.

The Cowboys, who are now 1-1, are going to need to find a way to bounce back after being hammered at home by the Saints.

The undersold part of the @Saints' record-breaking offense is an offensive line that is loaded for bear. LG Lucas Patrick had some serious pancakes in store for the @dallascowboys in the run game, and allowed no pressures in 20 pass-blocking reps. pic.twitter.com/hYAPzWb9ds
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 16, 2024

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2023 NFL Week 3 Must Bet Games

There have been eight NFL games this season decided by a game-winning score in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime, tied for the third-most such games through Week 2 all-time. Only 2013 (10 games) and 1979 (nine) had more. Here’s a look at a few must-bet games in Week 3.

Must Bet NFL Games Week 3

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-5)

This is the Thursday night game. The Browns had an impossible loss on Sunday, blowing a 13-point home lead to the Jets with under two minutes left in a stunning 31-30 defeat. New York became the first team since the 2001 Chicago Bears to win after trailing by 13 points in the final two minutes.

Cleveland running back Nick Chubb scored on a 12-yard run with 1:55 left but if he had simply fallen down before the end zone, the Browns could have run out the clock. After that TD, there was a missed extra point by Browns rookie kicker Cade York. Then what looked like a blown coverage assignment by Cleveland let the Jets score touchdown on a 66-yard pass from Joe Flacco to Corey Davis.

The Jets recovered the onside kick after that, and moved the ball down the field. The game was essentially ended by former Ohio State star Garrett Wilson. The wide receiver pulled in a 15-yard touchdown from Flacco to tie the score. Kicker Greg Zuerlein put the Jets up 31-30 and Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett threw an interception to finish it.

The Browns were poised to start the season 2-0 for the first time since 1993. That was so long ago, the quarterback for the Browns was Bernie Kosar and the head coach was Bill Belichick.

Pittsburgh lost 17-14 at home to New England and fans already are calling for Coach Mike Tomlin to bench QB Mitchell Trubisky for rookie Kenny Pickett. Trubisky completed 21 of 33 passes for 168 yards and a touchdown while throwing an interception in the loss. And for the second week, the offense failed to score more than one touchdown.

Tomlin said the team will remain patient as they work through the offensive issues. This includes waiting it out for Trubisky to find a rhythm.

“I’m experienced enough to see the big picture, that we are very much still in development,” Tomlin said. “So, I’m going to exercise appropriate patience and continue to teach and ask the guys to continue to learn in an effort to push this train down the track and continue to get better.” Pick: Cleveland

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-2)

Sunday game at 4:25 PM ET and could be the final time that future Hall of Fame quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady face off – unless the teams meet in the playoffs – as Brady is fully expected to retire after the season. The two QBs have combined for seven MVP Awards.

Green Bay looked awful Week 1 in a loss at Minnesota but handled the Bears 27-10 on Sunday night. After the Week 1 loss at Minnesota, Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur talked about getting the ball more to running back Aaron Jones, and to backfield mate AJ Dillon as well. The two backs touched the ball a combined 37 times (33 rushes, four receptions) for 237 yards (193 rushing, 44 receiving), with Jones doing the bulk of the damage and scoring two touchdowns. Jones regularly made Chicago tacklers miss en route to 132 rushing yards and a TD on 15 carries, and he added three catches for 38 yards and another score on a flip pass off jet motion.

Rodgers completed 19-of-25 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns. Rodgers fumbled on a botched handoff to AJ Dillon. A 55-yard strike to Sammy Watkins in the fourth quarter showed off the deep arm, but Rodgers was playing the short game most of the night. No Packers receiver had more than four targets and Green Bay was able to sit on the ball after building a 24-7 halftime lead.

Tampa Bay is 2-0 after winning 20-10 at New Orleans on Sunday. Brady completed 18-of-34 passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. Seven of the Bucs’ 20 points came on a pick-six. Tampa Bay entered the week missing multiple offensive linemen and receivers. Things only got worse during the game with Mike Evans getting ejected and starting left tackle Josh Wells going down.

Evans has been suspended for Week 3 because he punched Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Evans will appeal the suspension under the NFL’s collective bargaining agreement. The hearing will be before either Derrick Brooks or James Thrash, who have been jointly appointed by the league and the NFL Players Association to rule on appeals of on-field player discipline. Highly unlikely he wins the appeal. If Evans’ suspension stands, it would further deplete a receiving corps already dealing with multiple injuries. The Buccaneers played Sunday without Chris Godwin and Julio Jones. Pick: Green Bay

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?