Favorites Vs Underdogs Trends For The Last 10 Super Bowl Games

Posted by Eric Williams on Thursday,February 2, 2017 5:09, EST in

Hmm…should you bet on Tom Brady and the favored New England Patriots when Super Bowl 51 takes place this coming weekend or would your betting bucks be better spent by backing Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Atlanta Falcons?

Thanks to this look back at the last 10 Super Bowl betting predictions and outcomes, you’re going to find out why history says one Super Bowl 51 participant is close to  lock to cover if recent form holds true. Now, let’s get started.

Favorites Vs Underdogs Trends For The Last 10 Super Bowl Games

 

 

Super Bowl 50

Who: Carolina vs. Denver
Odds: Carolina -5 (43.5)
Score: Denver 24 Carolina 10
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under

Super Bowl 49

Who: Seattle vs. New England
Odds: Pick ‘Em (47.5)
Score: New England 28 Seattle 24
Betting Outcome: Over

Super Bowl 48

Who: Seattle vs. Denver
Odds: Denver -2.5 (47.5)
Score: Seattle 43 Denver 8
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over

Super Bowl 47

Who: San Francisco vs. Baltimore
Odds: San Francisco -4.5 (48)
Score: Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over

Super Bowl 46

Who: N.Y. Giants vs. New England
Odds: New England -2.5 (53)
Score: N.Y. Giants 21 New England 17
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under

Super Bowl 45

Who: Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Odds: Green Bay -3 (45)
Score: Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25
Betting Outcome: Favorite-Over

Super Bowl 44

Who: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Odds: Indianapolis -5 (57)
Score: New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under

Super Bowl 43

Who: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Odds: Pittsburgh -7 (46)
Score: Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over

Super Bowl 42

Who: N.Y. Giants vs. New England
Odds: New England -12 (55)
Score: N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under

Super Bowl 41

Who: Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Odds: Indianapolis -7 (47)
Score: Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17
Betting Outcome: Favorite-Under

Analysis: If you love betting on value-packed underdogs, then you should know that recent history has been quite kind to Super Bowl underdogs. Dogs have brought home the bacon in four of the last five Super Bowls and a whopping seven of the last nine NFL championships overall. Six of those underdogs have also covered the Super Bowl spread by winning outright against their favored opponents.

During this stretch, just two favorites have managed to cover the spread in Super Bowl victory. In Super Bowl 45, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers covered the spread as 3-point favorites against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in their 31-25 win. In Super Bowl 41, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts easily covered the spread as 7-point favorites against the overmatched Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears.

Last year, Von Miller and the Denver Broncos pulled off the outright upset and accompanying ATS over the Carolina Panthers as 5-point dogs in their 24-10 smackdown of Cam Newton and company in Super Bowl 50. Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the Seahawks as a Pick ‘Em one year earlier in Super Bowl 49 just one year after the Seahawks cashed in as a 2.5-point underdog against the Broncos in their stunning 43-8 blowout win in Super Bowl 48.

Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens also cashed in as underdogs – by winning outright in their thrilling 34-31 Super Bowl win over Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 47. Eli Manning and the New York Giants covered the Super Bowl spread, by winning outright against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Super Bowls 42 and 46.

 

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Future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees led the New Orleans Saints to the ATS cover as 5-point underdogs by beating Peyton Manning and the Colts in Super Bowl 44 while Kurt Warner helped Arizona cash in as a 7-point dog in their heartbreaking 27-23 loss to Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in Super Bowl 43.

In the end, what you need to know is that Underdogs have gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls, making the Atlanta Falcons to clear-cut pick to bring home the bacon in Super Bowl 51 if recent history holds true to form.