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The biggest offseason move by the Patriots was at coach. Bill Belichick is, of course, still the head coach, but the experiment at offensive coordinator in 2022 was a failure, and it has been scrapped. Matt Patricia is no longer running the offense, something he was never qualified to do, and Bill O’Brien is, something he is eminently qualified to do.

O’Brien was an offensive assistant with Belichick for four years, and he was the offensive coordinator in 2011 when Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards.

Let’s see if New England Patriots have what it takes to back the betting odds to win the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots 2023 Season Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Betting Preview

New England Patriots | 54th season as a member of the National Football League
Owner: Robert Kraft
Head coach: Bill Belichick
Home field: Gillette Stadium | Foxborough, Massachusetts

Patriots Futures Bets

Super Bowl Champions (+6500)
O’Brien is clearly an upgrade at OC, but the Patriots’ odds to win the Super Bowl have not improved. In 2021 they were at +3000 in the preseason to win the Super Bowl. A year ago, the odds were +4000. Today those odds sit at +6500.

New England has not entered a season this far away from a Super Bowl championship since 1993.

AFC Champions (+3500)
Underscoring the turning of the tide in New England is that only four teams have longer odds to win the AFC – the Raiders, Titans, Colts, and Texans. Every other team in the conference is favored ahead of New England.

From 2011 to 2019, the Patriots were never worse than +300.

AFC East Champions (+800)
Patriots fans have given themselves over to being behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. But oddsmakers have them behind both the Dolphins and Jets as well. New England is picked to finish last in the division, paying +800 as the long shot to win the AFC East.

The Patriots haven’t finished last in the division since 2000 and before realignment. That year, Belichick’s first as the head coach, they finished 5-11 and scored just 276 total points.

Patriots Win Total (7.5)

The Patriots’ over/under on total regular season wins in 2023 is 7.5, with the over paying +105. But it’s worth noting that according to the projected win totals for 2023, the Patriots have the hardest schedule in the entire NFL.

Six games against playoff contenders in their division, the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC, and the Chiefs and Chargers out of the AFC West.

That is a lot of games against playoff teams from last season and a lot of reason to think that the under at 5.5 wins, which pays +210, is a very attractive bet.

Weekly Patriots Betting

When the Patriots were the favorite in 2022, they were a great bet. They finished 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread. But you did not want to bet on them when they were the underdog. They were 1-8 straight up as dogs and 2-7 against the spread when getting points.

That trend does not bode well for 2023.

In the early odds for this season’s 17 games, New England is the underdog in each of the first four weeks and 13 times on the season. The only four games in which New England is the early favorite is Week 5 at home against the Saints, at the Raiders in Week 6, and at home against Washington in Week 9, and Indianapolis in Week 10.

Better beware.

Super Bowl Pick | Bet New England Patriots to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Super Bowl

2023 New England Patriots Regular Season Schedule

Week	Date	Opponent	Time
All times ET
1	Sep. 10	Philadelphia Eagles	4:25pm ET
2	Sep. 17	Miami Dolphins	8:20pm ET
3	Sep. 24	at New York Jets	1:00pm ET
4	Oct. 1	at Dallas Cowboys	4:25pm ET
5	Oct. 8	New Orleans Saints	1:00pm ET
6	Oct. 15	at Las Vegas Raiders	4:05pm ET
7	Oct. 22	Buffalo Bills	1:00pm ET
8	Oct. 29	at Miami Dolphins	1:00pm ET
9	Nov. 5	Washington Commanders	1:00pm ET
10	Nov. 12	Indianapolis Colts	9:30am ET
11	Nov. 19	BYE WEEK
12	Nov. 26	at New York Giants	1:00pm ET
13	Dec. 3	Los Angeles Chargers	1:00pm ET
14	Dec. 7	at Pittsburgh Steelers	8:15pm ET
15	Dec. 18	Kansas City Chiefs	8:15pm ET
16	Dec. 24	at Denver Broncos	8:15pm ET
17	Dec. 31	at Buffalo Bills	1:00pm ET
18	Jan. 7	New York Jets	TBA ET