MLB Betting Preview: Breaking Down Padres vs Cubs

The most intriguing pitching matchup around the majors Monday is certainly from Wrigley Field as Japanese stars Yu Darvish of the San Diego Padres and rookie Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs face off with the Cubbies favored on the MLB odds.

This is the start of the series between the two teams, who are following in the footsteps of their respective division leaders. Check out my analysis of the first game to be held from Chicago.

MLB Lines Cubs -125, Padres -110 (total 3.5)
What´s the Score? Cubs 4, Padres 2

San Diego Padres Moneyline -110

The Padres got a lot better over the weekend when they acquired two-time batting champion Luis Arraez from Miami for prospects. And in his San Diego debut on Saturday, Arraez was 4-for-6, becoming the first player to make his Padres debut with a four-hit game. Arraez has hit over .300 in four of his 5 previous seasons and became the 1st player in MLB history to win a batting title in both leagues in consecutive seasons (2022-23).

“The guy is probably the closest to Tony Gwynn that there is right now,” new teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. said of Arraez in referring to the late Padres legend and Hall of Famer Gwynn. “It’s hard to have a comp to Tony Gwynn,” Manager Mike Shildt said, “but if there is one in our modern game, we now have him on our team — and that just feels right.” Arraez is hitting leadoff for San Diego, which has dropped former leadoff hitter Jurickson Profar to the fifth spot.

The Padres were held without an extra-base hit on Opening Day in South Korea on March 20, but since then, the Padres have logged at least 1 extra-base hit in every game, a streak of 36 games, the second-longest such streak in baseball behind Kansas City.

It’s right-hander Yu Darvish on the hill Monday. Darvish (1-1) grabbed a win over the Reds last Tuesday, tossing five shutout innings while allowing just three hits in the outing. He struck out three and did not walk a batter. Darvish was finally able to pick up his first win of the season. It was his first shutout effort since July 29 of last year and also his first start since a short stint on the injured list with neck tightness.

Darvish was efficient, needing 70 pitches to get through five while inducing a bunch of weak contact. His strikeout numbers remain low in comparison to his career numbers, as he’s now struck out three or fewer batters in three of his six starts so far. He has 3.45 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 25:10 K:BB on the year in six starts.

“That was fantastic by Darvish,” Shildt said after beating the Reds. “He was tremendous. We know what we’re going to get out of Yu. But, of course, he was on a limited pitch count, and we weren’t sure what his innings would look like. He hit pretty much his ceiling on the pitches but did it in tremendous fashion. … He looked like Yu Darvish, which is pretty special.”

Darvish, who pitched for the Cubs from 2018-20, had struggled a bit himself, entering play Tuesday with a 4.18 ERA across five starts. “Obviously you go in there trying to get us out of that funk,” Darvish said. “So that’s the mentality: Let’s stop the losing streak right here.”

He is 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA against his former Cubs team in five starts.

Chicago Cubs Moneyline -125

The Cubs remain without two of their best hitters in Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki as they are on the injured list. Bellinger injured his right side while running into Wrigley Field’s brick wall on a catch attempt in the fourth inning of the Cubs’ 7-2 win over the Astros on April 23. On April 14 in Seattle, Suzuki injured his side while running down to first base in his final at-bat, leading to his placement on the 10-day IL on April 15. Both will need rehab assignments before they can return to the lineup, but it does appear Suzuki and Bellinger could be back with the club before the end of May.

The team also has made a change at closer as Hector Neris is currently the main guy. With six saves in as many attempts since April 20, and with former closer Adbert Alzolay struggling to get on track in lower-leverage situations, Neris appears to be shoring up his spot in the ninth inning under manager Craig Counsell. The Cubs’ bullpen is dealing with the absence of injured setup man Julian Merryweather, while having a few potential relief pieces helping an injury-ravaged rotation.

It’s rookie lefty Shota Imanaga on the hill Monday. He was named the NL Rookie of the Month for March/April. Imanaga (5-0) tossed seven scoreless innings to earn the win in last Wednesday’s 1-0 victory over the Mets. He allowed three hits and a walk, while striking out seven.

Imanaga continued the amazing start to his MLB career, as he now has a stellar 0.78 ERA across 34.2 innings to go along with 35 strikeouts. He has allowed zero earned runs in four of his six appearances so far, and the most he’s allowed in an outing was the two earned runs he gave up back on April 20. Opposing hitters getting their first look at the veteran left-hander hit a measly .181/.204/.257 and drew just three walks against 28 strikeouts.

The 30-year-old rookie has been nothing short of amazing in his first six MLB starts since coming over from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball after pitching for the Yokohama BayStars for the past eight years and accumulating a lifetime 3.18 ERA.

Imanaga is only the second pitcher in the last 70 years to post an ERA of 0.80 or lower in his first six career starts, joining Los Angeles Dodgers sensation Fernando Valenzuela, who sparked “Fernandomania” in 1981 when he made his debut in Southern California. Imanaga is also one of only 10 pitchers in the live-ball era to post an ERA of 1.00 or less while throwing at least 30 innings in his first six career starts, with Zach Duke the last to achieve the feat in 2005.

“It’s been fun to watch him pitch,” Counsell said. “He has exceeded expectations because anybody who pitches like that would exceed your expectations — Gerrit Cole or Max Scherzer or whatever. He’s pitched incredibly, incredibly well. He’s got his career off to a great start and it’s been fun to watch.”

This will be Imanaga’s first career outing vs. the Padres.

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Padres at Cubs Info

When: Monday, 7:40 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Pitchers (away/home): Yu Darvish/Shota Imagana
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/