So far, the money hasn’t stopped landing on the San Francisco 49ers. Heading into the weekend, the Niners have maintained a -2 edge from a pick opening line over the defending champion Kanas City Chiefs.
Will the Chiefs score the underdog ATS win on Sunday? What does history tell us about how dogs and fave perform in the NFL’s Lombardi Trophy game?
Check out a full against the spread history from the 2000 Super Bowl to last year’s game along with analysis.
Super Bowl 58 Betting: Favorites vs Underdogs | MyBookie NFL Preview for the Big Game
Super Bowl LVIII | 58th edition of the annual league championship game of the National Football League
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
ATS Odds: 49ers -2
Money line Odds: Kansas City Chiefs Line: +105 / San Francisco 49ers Line: -125
Over/Under Odds: 47.5
Sunday, February 11th, 2024 at 6:30 pm ET | CBS
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Super Bowl Betting: Favorites vs Underdogs
Super Bowl ATS Results Since 2020
- 2000 Rams -7 – Rams 23 – Titans 16 – Push
- 2001 Ravens -3 – Ravens 34 – Giants 7 – Favorite
- 2002 Rams -14 – Patriots 20 – Rams 17 – Underdog
- 2003 Raiders -4 – Buccaneers 48 – Raiders 21 – Underdog
- 2004 Patriots -7 – Patriots 32 – Panthers 29 – Underdog
- 2005 Patriots -7 – Patriots 24 – Eagles 21 – Underdog
- 2006 Steelers -4 – Steelers 21 – Seahawks 10 – Favorite
- 2007 Colts -7 – Colts 29 – Bears 17 – Favorite
- 2008 Patriots -12 – Giants 17 – Patriots 14 – Underdog
- 2009 Steelers -7 – Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23 – Underdog
- 2010 Colts -5 – Saints 31 – Colts 17 – Underdog
- 2011 – Packers -3 – Packers 31 – Steelers 25 – Favorite
- 2012 – Patriots -2.5 – Giants 21 – Patriots 17 – Underdog
- 2013 – 49ers -4.5 – Ravens 34 – 49ers 31 – Underdog
- 2014 – Broncos -2 – Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8 – Underdog
- 2015 – Seahawks -1 – Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24 – Underdog
- 2016 – Panthers -4.5 – Broncos 24 – Panthers 10 – Underdog
- 2017 – Patriots -3 – Patriots 34 – Falcons 28 – Favorite
- 2018 – Patriots -4.5 – Eagles 41 – Patriots 33 – Underdog
- 2019 – Patriots -2.5 – Patriots 13 – Rams 3 – Favorite
- 2020 – Chiefs -1.5 – Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20 – Favorite
- 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
- 2022 – Rams -4 – Rams 23 – Bengals 20 – Underdog
- 2023 – Eagles -2 – Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35 – Underdog
ATS Record: Underdogs 16 – Favorites 7 – Push 1
Since 2000, underdogs have dominated. But the domination goes further than that. Before getting into how dominant underdogs have been in the Super Bowl, lets first discuss the favorites that have covered.
The Ravens in 2001, the Steelers in 2006, the Colts in 2007, the Packers in 2011, the Patriots in 2017, the Patriots again in 2019, and the Chiefs in 2020 all had something in common. All seven favorites boasted good to great defenses. The 2001 Ravens had one of the best defenses to ever play in a Super Bowl.
This season, the favored San Francisco 49ers have a decent defense, which means the Niners will have a chance to cover the spread as a favorite.
Super Bowl Favorites with Great Defenses
But there’s more to the underdog trend than favorites boasting good to great defenses. Many of the sixteen dogs that won against the spread in Super Bowls since 2000 also won straight up:
- 2002 Rams -14 – Patriots 20 – Rams 17 – Underdog
- 2003 Raiders -4 – Buccaneers 48 – Raiders 21 – Underdog
- 2004 Patriots -7 – Patriots 32 – Panthers 29 – Underdog
- 2005 Patriots -7 – Patriots 24 – Eagles 21 – Underdog
- 2008 Patriots -12 – Giants 17 – Patriots 14 – Underdog
- 2009 Steelers -7 – Steelers 27 – Cardinals 23 – Underdog
- 2010 Colts -5 – Saints 31 – Colts 17 – Underdog
- 2012 – Patriots -2.5 – Giants 21 – Patriots 17 – Underdog
- 2013 – 49ers -4.5 – Ravens 34 – 49ers 31 – Underdog
- 2014 – Broncos -2 – Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8 – Underdog
- 2015 – Seahawks -1 – Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24 – Underdog
- 2016 – Panthers -4.5 – Broncos 24 – Panthers 10 – Underdog
- 2018 – Patriots -4.5 – Eagles 41 – Patriots 33 – Underdog
- 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
- 2021 – Chiefs -3 – Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9 – Underdog
- 2022 – Rams -4 – Rams 23 – Bengals 20 – Underdog
- 2023 – Eagles -2 – Chiefs 38 – Eagles 35 – Underdog
11-of-16 underdogs that covered the spread in Super Bowl contests since 2000 also lifted the Lombardi Trophy. Since 2014, spread underdogs are 6-2 straight up in the past 8 Super Bowls.
Somet might say it’s difficult to find SU and ATS trends in Super Bowls because the participating teams change from season to season. However, the above trends of 16-of-24 dogs winning ATS and underdogs going 6-2 SU in the past eight Super Bowls are amazingly strong trends.
Handicapping the Super Bowl isn’t about trends, of course, but if you’re looking for the optimal bet based on trends, then there’s no contest. At +105 on the moneyline, the Kansas City Chiefs are the best bet on the board.
Super Bowl LVIII | 49ers vs Chiefs
Optimal Super Bowl 58 Trend Bet: Kansas City Chiefs ML +105 | Odds for Super Bowl
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Big Game
Previous Betting News | MyBookie News Archive
2023 Super Bowl Betting Trend & Stats to Study Before the Game
Previous Betting News
Super Bowl LVII takes place on Sunday, February 12, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The 57th edition of the National Football League’s (NFL) championship pits the Kansas City Chiefs against the Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams are looking to win their second Super Bowl in the last six years.
Philadelphia defeated the Patriots 41-33 in Super Bowl LII, while the Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV. Kansas City is in its third Super Bowl in four years after a somewhat controversial 23-20 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship. The Eagles punched their ticket to the Super Bowl with a dominant victory over the 49ers.
This game is the biggest Super Bowl betting event of the year. If you’re new to wagering on the “Big Game,” here’s a primer on what stats and trends to consider.
2023 Super Bowl Betting Trend & Stats to Study Before the Game
Historical Results for Betting Favorite
This is subject to change based on betting trends, but the Philadelphia Eagles are currently -1.5 point favorites over the Chiefs. The Eagles are -125 moneyline favorites, while Kansas City is +105 underdogs. The betting favorite has won 32 of the 56 Super Bowls thus far for a winning percentage of 57.14. The favorite has won four of the last six Super Bowls. Kansas City was the favorite when they won against San Francisco, but lost as the favorites to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.
Interestingly, the underdog has won in each of the three Super Bowls in which the Eagles participated. Philadelphia won as an underdog five years ago and lost as the favorites in Super Bowl XXIX and Super Bowl XV.
Quarterback Performance
There’s no player with more impact on the game than the quarterback, so let’s take a look at the recent performances of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts. Mahomes may have the better resume and is a likely choice to win the NFL MVP this season, but he’s dealing with an ankle injury that could still impact his performance next Sunday.
Mahomes finished the season with a league-best 5,250 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He also rushed for 358 yards, which is just 23 off of his career-high in that category. He’s had a QB rating of at least 100 in each of his past six games and has thrown for at least two TDs in six of his last seven games.
Hurts is certainly not as proven as Mahomes, but he should also be in consideration for the NFL MVP. Hurts finished the season with 3,701 passing yards and 22 touchdowns compared to just six interceptions. He’s more mobile than Mahomes, rushing for at least 750 yards for the second consecutive season. It’s troubling, however, that he hasn’t thrown a TD in three of his last four games.
Run Defense
The Chiefs and Eagles rank 11th and 12th, respectively, in rushing yards per carry this season, but the Eagles utilize the run much more often, with 544 carries compared to 417. Run defense, then, can play a pivotal role in next Sunday’s game.
The Chiefs’ run defense is slightly better than the Eagles, at least based on the 2022 regular season. However, Philadelphia played the league’s best rush defense in the 49ers last weekend and rushed for 148 yards.
Favorites vs. Underdogs: A Look at the Betting Results For the Last 10 Super Bowls
Previous Betting News
Super Bowl 57 kicks off on Sunday, Feb. 12. Right now, Super Bowl odds peg the Eagles a -1.5 favorite. Check out the spread line and results for the last ten Super Bowls. Doing so could help you determine whether you should follow the money, ala backing Philadelphia, or go with the dog, throwing money behind Magic Mahomes and KC.
So before you go betting on the Super Bowl, pay attention to these results of the Big Games.
Favorites vs. Underdogs: A Look at the Betting Results For the Last 10 Super Bowls
Super Bowl LVII
When: Sunday, Feb. 12, 2023
Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Time: 6:30 PM EST
TV: FOX
A Look at the Betting Results For the Last 10 Super Bowls
2022 Super Bowl: Rams -4.5 vs. Bengals
Result: Rams 23 – Bengals 20
The Rams rallied to get by Cincinnati. One of the issues the Bengals had in this game was stopping Aaron Donald and the Rams’ pass rush.
2021 Super Bowl: Buccaneers vs. Chiefs -3
Result: Buccaneers 31 – Chiefs 9
Andy Reid’s son, Britt, was charged with drunk driving after being involved in a crash where a 5-year-old girl died 3 days before the Super Bowl. Britt’s situation, no doubt, is one of the reasons Reid called one of the worst games of his life. No KC player appeared to have his mind on the game.
2020 Super Bowl: Chiefs -1 vs. 49ers
Result: Chiefs 31 – 49ers 20
The Niners appeared to have the win sewed up before the fourth quarter. But then Mahomes did his thing and the Chiefs pulled away for a comfortable 11 point victory.
2019 Super Bowl: Patriots -2.5 vs. Rams
Result: Patriots 13 – Rams 3
Sean McVay’s first attempt at winning the Super Bowl was a failure. Bill Belichick outcoached McVay from the first kick. The Rams’ vaunted offense could do nothing in what turned out to be one of the most boring Super Bowls in history.
2018 Super Bowl: Eagles vs. Patriots -4
Result: Eagles 41 – Patriots 33
Once it became clear that Carson Wentz wasn’t going to play and that the Eagles were going to lean on journeyman quarterback Nick Foles, money poured onto the Patriots. However, the late money was the smart money. By kickoff, a line that had climbed to Pats -5.5 had fallen a full point and a half. Foles played great and the rest is history.
2017 Super Bowl: Falcons vs. Patriots -3
Result: Patriots 34 – Falcons 28
Tom Brady and the Patriots found themselves down 23 points to start the fourth quarter. So, of course, the GOAT rallied the Pats to a 28-28 tie. Then on the first drive in overtime, Brady led the Patriots to a game winning TD.
2016 Super Bowl: Panthers -5 vs. Broncos
Result: Broncos 34 – Panthers 10
League MVP Cam Newton and the Panthers jumped to -6.5 chalks in the first week. By mid-Super Bowl week, money started going to the Broncos. Peyton Manning leaned on a defense led by the great Von Miller. Von won the Super Bowl MVP after recording 5 solo tackles and stripping Cam Newton twice on 2.5 sacks.
2015 Super Bowl: Seahawks pick’em vs. Patriots
Result: Patriots 28 – Seahawks 24
It took a goal line interception by Malcolm Butler to seal the deal. But the Pats got it done in one of the more exciting Super Bowls in recent seasons.
2014 Super Bowl: Seahawks vs. Broncos -2.5
Result: Seahawks 43 – Broncos 8
Peyton Manning was supposed to handle the Seahawks Legion of Boom. By halftime, the Boom had gotten to Peyton and the Hawks were up 22-0. After the third quarter, the score was Seattle 36 and Denver 8.
2013 Super Bowl: 49ers -4.5 vs. Ravens
Result: Ravens 34 – 49ers 31
John Harbaugh outcoached brother Jim in a game between mediocre quarterbacks, Colin Kaepernick for the Niners and Joe Flacco for the Ravens.
Super Bowl 57 is a battle between two of the best quarterbacks in the league. So if you want to use a past SB as a template for what might happen, think 2015 when Brady faced off against Russell Wilson or 2017 when Tom Brady took on Matt Ryan.
Super Bowl Championships
| Winner | Loser | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| I | Green Bay | 35–10 | Kansas City |
| II | Green Bay | 33–14 | Oakland |
| III | New York | 16–7 | Baltimore |
| IV | Kansas City | 23–7 | Minnesota |
| V | Baltimore | 16–13 | Dallas |
| VI | Dallas | 24–3 | Miami |
| VII | Miami | 14–7 | Washington |
| VIII | Miami | 24–7 | Minnesota |
| IX | Pittsburgh | 16–6 | Minnesota |
| X | Pittsburgh | 21–17 | Dallas |
| XI | Oakland | 32–14 | Minnesota |
| XII | Dallas | 27–10 | Denver |
| XIII | Pittsburgh | 35–31 | Dallas |
| XIV | Pittsburgh | 31–19 | Los Angeles |
| XV | Oakland | 27–10 | Philadelphia |
| XVI | San Francisco | 26–21 | Cincinnati |
| XVII | Washington | 27–17 | Miami |
| XVIII | Los Angeles | 38–9 | Washington |
| XIX | San Francisco | 38–16 | Miami |
| XX | Chicago | 46–10 | New England |
| XXI | New York | 39–20 | Denver |
| XXII | Washington | 42–10 | Denver |
| XXIII | San Francisco | 20–16 | Cincinnati |
| XXIV | San Francisco | 55–10 | Denver |
| XXV | New York | 20–19 | Buffalo |
| XXVI | Washington | 37–24 | Buffalo |
| XXVII | Dallas | 52–17 | Buffalo |
| XXVIII | Dallas | 30–13 | Buffalo |
| XXIX | San Francisco | 49–26 | San Diego |
| XXX | Dallas | 27–17 | Pittsburgh |
| XXXI | Green Bay | 35–21 | New England |
| XXXII | Denver | 31–24 | Green Bay |
| XXXIII | Denver | 34–19 | Atlanta |
| XXXIV | St. Louis | 23–16 | Tennessee |
| XXXV | Baltimore | 34–7 | New York |
| XXXVI | New England | 20–17 | St. Louis |
| XXXVII | Tampa Bay | 48–21 | Oakland |
| XXXVIII | New England | 32–29 | Carolina |
| XXXIX | New England | 24–21 | Philadelphia |
| XL | Pittsburgh | 21–10 | Seattle |
| XLI | Indianapolis | 29–17 | Chicago |
| XLII | New York | 17–14 | New England |
| XLIII | Pittsburgh | 27–23 | Arizona |
| XLIV | New Orleans | 31–17 | Indianapolis |
| XLV | Green Bay | 31–25 | Pittsburgh |
| XLVI | New York | 21–17 | New England |
| XLVII | Baltimore | 34–31 | San Francisco |
| XLVIII | Seattle | 43–8 | Denver |
| XLIX | New England | 28–24 | Seattle |
| 50 | Denver | 24–10 | Carolina |
| LI | New England | 34–28 | Atlanta |
| LII | Philadelphia | 41–33 | New England |
| LIII | New England | 13–3 | Los Angeles |
| LIV | Kansas City | 31–20 | San Francisco |
| LV | Tampa Bay | 31–9 | Kansas City |
| LVI | Los Angeles | 23–20 | Cincinnati |
2017 Favorites Vs Underdogs Trends For The Last 10 Super Bowl Games
Previous Betting News
Hmm…should you bet on Tom Brady and the favored New England Patriots when Super Bowl 51 takes place this coming weekend or would your betting bucks be better spent by backing Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Atlanta Falcons?
Thanks to this look back at the last 10 Super Bowl betting predictions and outcomes, you’re going to find out why history says one Super Bowl 51 participant is close to lock to cover if recent form holds true. Now, let’s get started.
2017 Favorites Vs Underdogs Trends For The Last 10 Super Bowl Games
Super Bowl 50
Who: Carolina vs. Denver
Odds: Carolina -5 (43.5)
Score: Denver 24 Carolina 10
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under
Super Bowl 49
Who: Seattle vs. New England
Odds: Pick ‘Em (47.5)
Score: New England 28 Seattle 24
Betting Outcome: Over
Super Bowl 48
Who: Seattle vs. Denver
Odds: Denver -2.5 (47.5)
Score: Seattle 43 Denver 8
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over
Super Bowl 47
Who: San Francisco vs. Baltimore
Odds: San Francisco -4.5 (48)
Score: Baltimore 34 San Francisco 31
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over
Super Bowl 46
Who: N.Y. Giants vs. New England
Odds: New England -2.5 (53)
Score: N.Y. Giants 21 New Engla
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under
Super Bowl 45
Who: Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
Odds: Green Bay -3 (45)
Score: Green Bay 31 Pittsburgh 25
Betting Outcome: Favorite-Over
Super Bowl 44
Who: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Odds: Indianapolis -5 (57)
Score: New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under
Super Bowl 43
Who: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
Odds: Pittsburgh -7 (46)
Score: Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 23
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Over
Super Bowl 42
Who: N.Y. Giants vs. New England
Odds: New England -12 (55)
Score: N.Y. Giants 17 New England 14
Betting Outcome: Underdog-Under
Super Bowl 41
Who: Indianapolis vs. Chicago
Odds: Indianapolis -7 (47)
Score: Indianapolis 29 Chicago 17
Betting Outcome: Favorite-Under
Analysis: If you love betting on value-packed underdogs, then you should know that recent history has been quite kind to Super Bowl underdogs. Dogs have brought home the bacon in four of the last five Super Bowls and a whopping seven of the last nine NFL championships overall. Six of those underdogs have also covered the Super Bowl spread by winning outright against their favored opponents.
During this stretch, just two favorites have managed to cover the spread in Super Bowl victory. In Super Bowl 45, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers covered the spread as 3-point favorites against Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers in their 31-25 win. In Super Bowl 41, Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts easily covered the spread as 7-point favorites against the overmatched Rex Grossman and the Chicago Bears.
Last year, Von Miller and the Denver Broncos pulled off the outright upset and accompanying ATS over the Carolina Panthers as 5-point dogs in their 24-10 smackdown of Cam Newton and company in Super Bowl 50. Tom Brady and the Patriots beat the Seahawks as a Pick ‘Em one year earlier in Super Bowl 49 just one year after the Seahawks cashed in as a 2.5-point underdog against the Broncos in their stunning 43-8 blowout win in Super Bowl 48.
Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens also cashed in as underdogs – by winning outright in their thrilling 34-31 Super Bowl win over Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 47. Eli Manning and the New York Giants covered the Super Bowl spread, by winning outright against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Super Bowls 42 and 46.
Future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees led the New Orleans Saints to the ATS cover as 5-point underdogs by beating Peyton Manning and the Colts in Super Bowl 44 while Kurt Warner helped Arizona cash in as a 7-point dog in their heartbreaking 27-23 loss to Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers in Super Bowl 43.
In the end, what you need to know is that Underdogs have gone 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 Super Bowls, making the Atlanta Falcons to clear-cut pick to bring home the bacon in Super Bowl 51 if recent history holds true to form.
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