Yankees (-1.5) vs. Orioles: Home Series Finale Preview, Expert Picks and Score Prediction

Wednesday is huge for the New York Yankees’ hopes of winning the 2024 World Series as ace right-hander and 2023 Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will make his season debut off some elbow troubles that didn’t require surgery – at least not yet.

The Bombers are favored on the MLB odds against the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Odds +140

Entering this series, the Orioles lead the majors with 114 homers. That is the most through the first 71 games in O’s history, breaking the mark of 112 by the 1996 team. Baltimore has five players with at least 10 home runs, the most in MLB this season: Gunnar Henderson (22), Anthony Santander (17), Adley Rutschman (14), Ryan Mountcastle (11), and Jordan Westburg (11).

The O’s lead MLB with nine leadoff homers and Henderson has eight. Those are tied for the second-most in a single season in franchise history with Cedric Mullins (8, 2021) and trailing Brady Anderson (12, 1996).

Rookie lefty Cade Povich (0-1, 4.76 ERA) makes his third big-league start for the Orioles and first against the Yankees. Povich wouldn’t likely be with the big club if the O’s hadn’t been hammered by injuries. Both John Means and Tyler Wells are out for the season and ace Kyle Bradish is back on the injured list with arm trouble that also might end his season. Still, this could be Povich’s last start before being sent down if he doesn’t perform well with veteran Dean Kremer close to a return from the IL.

Povich was charged for six runs in 5 1/3 innings while picking up a loss to the Blue Jays in his MLB debut on June 6 but was much better last Wednesday vs. Atlanta, throwing six shutout innings on just five hits allowed with no walks and six strikeouts. He threw 63-of-89 pitches for strikes, and struck out at least one batter in each of the first five innings.

The 6-foot-3 Povich was a third-round pick of the Twins in 2021 out of Nebraska. He was in High-A in the Minnesota organization when the O’s acquired him at the ’22 deadline. Baltimore sent closer Jorge López, then in the midst of an All-Star season, to the Twin Cities for Yennier Cano, Povich, and two other minor league pitchers.

FanGraphs ranks Povich fifth in the Baltimore system among prospects and as the sport’s No. 92 prospect overall, with praise for the deception in his delivery and his collection of offspeed pitches.

Asked how Povich has grown from spring training to now, pitching coach Drew French said: “I think you’ve got to look at the group that was responsible for acquiring him and then the group that was responsible for kind of raising him through our system. Hats off to them for that. Definitely saw a lot of growth between spring and now, but in between start one and two is probably the biggest jump. I just think in terms of like being comfortable, being able to kind of letting his shoulders sit down, kind of understanding the expectations and what it’s going to feel like. He’s an unbelievable talent and he’s got a maturity level that you don’t see out of many who are his age, so you know the future’s bright.”

O’s starters have a 2.99 ERA, the second-best rotation ERA in the AL and third-best in MLB behind the Phillies and Yankees. Since April 29, the rotation’s ERA is 2.50, the best mark in the big leagues. Since May 29, Orioles relievers have a 0.98 ERA, the second-lowest bullpen ERA in MLB behind Cleveland.

Not since April 7-9 of last season have the Orioles lost a series to an AL East team. They dropped two of three to the Yankees at Camden Yards in that series, and are 15-0-6 in 21 series against AL East teams since. That includes 5-0-2 this season.

New York Yankees Betting Odds -173

The Yankees are light on lefty hitters and have lost one of their best ones, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, for 4-6 weeks with an arm fracture suffered on a seventh-inning collision during New York’s 9-3 loss to the Red Sox on Sunday evening at Fenway Park.

Reaching base on an error charged to first baseman Dominic Smith, Rizzo slammed into pitcher Brennan Bernardino, then tumbled beyond the bag. Rizzo’s 2023 season was derailed by a collision with the Padres’ Fernando Tatis Jr. at Yankee Stadium last May.

Though Rizzo has said that he is beyond any concussion-related issues, his numbers have dipped each month this year. Including a hitless showing on Sunday, Rizzo is just 5-for-48 (.104) in June, with one double, one homer and three RBIs. Yankees first basemen have produced a .642 OPS this season, the sixth-lowest mark in MLB.

The Yankees could have DJ LeMahieu play more regularly at first base but they also called up slugger Ben Rice from Triple-A and he could get the first shot at first base. Rice, a 25-year-old first base/catching prospect, is hitting .275 with 15 homers and 36 RBIs this season spanning Double-A and Triple-A.

He’s crushed Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .333/.440/.619 slashline in 11 games. Rice is the Yankees’ No. 12 prospect and has displayed strong offensive skills since being selected in the 12th round of the 2021 draft.

Meanwhile, no one is hotter than Yankees slugger and AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge. Over his past 40 games entering Tuesday, Judge has hit .387/.503/.937, good for a 1.439 OPS. He’s been nearly three times better than the average hitter and worth nearly 5 WAR in just six weeks. During Judge’s 40-game run, he’s stepped to the plate 177 times. He’s reached base in more than half of them, for that .503 OBP, and he’s got 37 extra base hits.

Ace righty and 2023 Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will make his first big-league start of the year Wednesday after dealing with a right elbow injury early this spring and working himself back up in the minors.

Cole looked sharp in his third minor-league rehab start last Friday, striking out 10 over 4 1/3 innings for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre at Rochester, allowing one run (unearned) on two hits with no walks. He topped out at 97.8 mph, a hair over his 96.7 mph average four-seamer velocity from the 2023 season.

Cole led the AL in innings pitched (209), ERA (2.63) and WHIP (0.98) during his unanimous Cy Young-winning season last year. Cole threw a bullpen session Monday and said it went “very good.”

Cole joins a starting rotation that has the lowest ERA in baseball at 2.90. Some advanced metrics suggest the Yankees’ rotation has overperformed to this point of the season. Their FIP ranks 11th and expected FIP ranks 20th in MLB.

Cole is taking Cody Poteet’s spot in the rotation and expected to be around 80-85 pitches Wednesday. Poteet made three starts for the Yankees in place of Clarke Schmidt, who landed on the injured list with a lat strain. The right-hander surrendered five runs (four earned) over 15 innings in the three outings.

Bet Orioles at Yankees MLB Odds

When: Wednesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Cade Povich/Gerrit Cole
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

Very good matchup from the top of the AL East on Monday as the New York Yankees visit the Baltimore Orioles in their first meeting of the season.

Check out below everything you need to know for this great from Oriole Park at Camden Yards with the O’s favored on the MLB odds behind pitcher Grayson Rodriguez.

New York Yankees Odds +120

The Yankees remain without infielder and usual leadoff hitter DJ LeMahieu due to a non-displaced fracture of his right foot. He recently had a setback in his rehab and is considered week-to-week again. Fellow infielder Jon Berti was placed on the injured list on April 13 after he sustained an adductor injury running to first base against the Marlins on April 10. It’s possible Berti is activated for this series.

Manager Aaron Boone made a change to his lineup over the weekend looking for a spark as he moved Alex Verdugo to cleanup and Verdugo promptly went yard on Saturday. New York’s 15 runs in Saturday’s victory in Milwaukee marked the Yanks’ most in a game since July 6, 2022, a 16-0 win at Pittsburgh. Their 19 hits were the club’s most since Aug. 25, 2022, at Oakland (20).

Yankees batters lead the majors with a 4.11 pitches per plate appearance ratio and rank second in walks. The Yanks are 18-3 when scoring at least three runs, the second-best such record in the majors. Eight of New York’s wins this year are of the comeback variety. New York pitchers rank fifth in the majors in opponents’ SLG (.348) and opponents’ OPS (.648), and sixth in opponents’ BA (.219).

It’s righty Clarke Schmidt (2-0) on the hill Monday. Schmidt (2-0) picked up the win in last Wednesday’s 7-3 victory over the A’s, allowing three runs on four hits and two walks over 5.1 innings. He struck out six. Schmidt cruised through five innings before serving up a three-run shot to Brent Rooker in the sixth and getting the hook after 92 pitches (58 strikes), but the Yanks supported Schmidt with three long balls of their own. He’s still looking for his first quality start of the season, but Schmidt has lasted five or more innings in four of his five outings, and he hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of them. He’ll take a 3.55 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 29:10 K:BB through 25.1 innings into Monday.

Schmidt has had real trouble in the sixth inning this year. He entered that last outing with a 54.00 ERA in the sixth inning, and that only got worse as he allowed three runs while recording just a single out.

He still notched a 30th consecutive start in which he allowed three runs or fewer, tying Blake Snell for the second-most in MLB since the start of last season and moving within two of Sonny Gray.

Last year, Schmidt was 2-1 with a 5.47 ERA in four starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Odds -130

Good looking young second baseman Jordan Westburg didn’t start Sunday’s finale vs. Oakland for the Orioles but it was simply a day of rest and he should be back in there Monday. Westburg had started 16 straight games and posted a 1.057 OPS during that stretch, but he was in a 4-for-20 slump.

The Orioles are one of two MLB teams (also Los Angeles-NL) with four players who’ve hit at least five home runs: Gunnar Henderson (9), Colton Cowser and Cedric Mullins (6) and Westburg (5). The O’s lead the AL and are second in MLB with a 90.4 mph average exit velocity, per Statcast. Henderson ranks second among all hitters with a 95.6 mph average exit velo.

The Orioles remain without two injured starting pitchers in John Means and Kyle Bradish but both are close to making their 2024 debuts in the majors. Means made his sixth and expected final rehab appearance on Sunday and likely will join the team later this week in Cincinnati. When Means reported to Spring Training on Feb. 14, he was about a month behind other pitchers in his throwing program. Bradish is expected to debut as early as May 2 against the Yankees. Bradish began the season on the injured list due to a right UCL sprain he sustained in January at the start of his offseason throwing program. He underwent imaging and received a platelet-rich plasma injection, then restarted his progression on Feb. 16.

Baltimore has now gone 100 consecutive regular-season series of at least two decisions (no ties) without being swept. That’s the fourth-longest regular-season streak in MLB history, trailing the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals (124), 1906-09 Chicago Cubs (115), and 1903-05 New York Giants (105). Baltimore’s current streak is the longest in O’s history, ahead of 46 such series from 1971-72. The Birds have not been swept in a regular-season series of at least two games since May 13- 15, 2022 at Detroit (0-3), and not at home in a series of at least two games since August 27-29, 2021 vs. Tampa Bay (0-3). The Orioles were swept by the Rangers in three games in the 2023 ALDS.

It’s right hander Grayson Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45 ERA) on the hill Monday. Rodriguez took the loss last Tuesday against the Angels after allowing seven runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out seven over 4.1 innings. The 11 hits allowed were a career high and the 4.1 innings pitched were a season low. He still was able to rack up seven strikeouts, which were his most since April 5. The Angels scored at least a run in each of the first four innings and 10 of the 14 balls put in play against Rodriguez were hard hit.

It was the first time Rodriguez had allowed five earned runs in a regular season start since May 26, 2023, which happened to be Rodriguez’s final outing before he was demoted and subsequently spent the next six weeks in the minors.

Rodriguez did not factor into the decision of his lone start against the Yankees on July 28, 2023; he allowed three hits and two walks with four strikeouts across 6.1 scoreless innings.

Yankees at Orioles TV Info

When: Monday, 6:35 PM ET
Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Pitchers (away/home): Clarke Schmidt/Grayson Rodriguez
TV: MLB Extra Innings

Injuries to Consider

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles