Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

Both the Yankees and Red Sox are clinging to life support in the AL wild-card race as the teams meet in Game 2 of their big early-week series from Fenway Park on Tuesday with the Sox as short favorites on the MLB odds.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 23: Monday September 11 – Sunday September 17, 2023

How to Bet New York at Boston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Carlos Rodon/Nick Pivetta
TV: MLB Extra Innings, TBS
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -120, Yankees +100 (total 9)

Why Bet on New York?

The season is over for good-looking Yankees rookie Jasson Dominguez as the 20-year-old has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow that will require surgery and probably keep him out the first half of next year too. For a pitcher, a torn UCL (and the near-certain Tommy John surgery that follows) is a truly devastating diagnosis but it’s not as bad for a hitter.

Philadelphia star Bryce Harper played most of the 2022 season with his UCL torn and more recently, Shohei Ohtani kept serving as a DH with a tear in his. The injury is to the right elbow of Domínguez and that’s his throwing arm. Domínguez, 20, made MLB history by homering in four of his first seven games — becoming the youngest ever to do so — and is hitting .258/.303/.677 with seven RBI in his eight career MLB games. He homered in his first career game against the Astros on Sept. 1.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that The Martian’s recovery will likely take nine to 10 months, which suggests that the 2024 All-Star break could be a best-case scenario for his return. The Yankees already have shut down some other guys like first baseman Anthony Rizzo and starting pitcher Nestor Cortes. Boone needs two wins to reach 500. He would be just the eighth manager in Yankees history to accomplish the feat. Under his helm since 2018, the Yankees have posted the fifth-best record in the majors.

New York slugger Giancarlo Stanton has hit .325/.391/.577 (40-for-123) with 18R, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 7HR, 24RBI, 12BB, 2HP, 1SF and 2SB in 32 regular season career games at Fenway Park entering this series. He has hit 4HR in his last 11G at Fenway (since 9/24/21).

It’s lefty Carlos Rodon on the mound Tuesday. Rodon took the loss last Thursday, allowing seven runs on eight hits over 3.2 innings in a 10-3 loss to Detroit. He struck out four without issuing any walks. The 30-year-old spotted the Tigers a two-run lead before registering an out, allowing a leadoff double to Matt Vierling before Spencer Torkelson hit a wall-scraping homer to right field. Rodon surrendered five more runs across the third and fourth frames, resulting in an early exit with a season-high seven runs charged to his line.

After back-to-back campaigns with a sub-3.00 ERA, Rodon has endured a tumultuous first season in New York, compiling a 2-5 record with a 6.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and a disappointing 1.95 K/BB ratio across 10 starts (46.1 innings). He hasn’t faced Boston this year.

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Why Bet on Boston?

The Sox are without good young outfielder Jarren Duran the rest of this season following turf toe surgery not long ago. In 102 games this year, he slashed .295/.346/.482 (120 OPS+) with 34 doubles and 24 stolen bases. Overall, Duran has an OPS+ of 96 across parts of three MLB seasons, all with the Red Sox. He’s also spent the large majority of his defensive innings in center field. Adam Duvall is now the primary in center field, although he sat out a third straight game Monday as Duvall is 0-for-13 with 10 strikeouts in his past three times in the lineup.

Right-hander Nick Pivetta will transition back into a rotation role over the final three weeks of the regular season after James Paxton was officially shut down Sunday due to right knee inflammation. Pivetta (9-8) took the loss Wednesday last Wednesday, giving up three runs on seven hits and two walks over 4.2 innings as the Red Sox fell 3-1 to the Rays. He struck out five. The 30-year-old holds a 4.54 ERA and 150:47 K:BB through 117 innings (12 starts, 22 relief appearances) this season with Boston. He leads the team in strikeouts and ranks 2nd in innings pitched (117.0).

Pivetta started the year in the starting five before being demoted to the bullpen in mid-May, then became a dominant bullpen force. In recent weeks, he has served a hybrid starter/reliever role, starting four of the six games he has pitched in since July 31. In the final three weeks of the season, he’ll exclusively be used as a starter. Pivetta has recorded a career-high strikeout rate of 30.4% this year. Since June 18, he has struck out 34.3% of batters faced (63.2 IP, 94 SO, 21 BB, 254 BF).

Manager Alex Cora believes the move back to the rotation is well-earned by Pivetta, who owns a 3.62 ERA in 77 innings dating back to May 21. He has struggled recently (5.97 ERA since Aug. 1) after posting a 1.88 ERA mark in 16 outings from May 28 to July 31.

“That’s good for him,” Cora said. “He has been solid throughout and we’ll give him every chance to start every five days.”

Boston is 23-20-3 in series play and 1-4-0 in their last 5 series, after going 3-1-1 in their previous 5. The Sox are 13-10-0 in home series (10-10-3 on the road). The Red Sox have already surpassed their series win total from 2022 (22-24-6). They’ve also won more home series than they did last season (12-10-4).

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Expert Prediction

Red Sox 5, Yankees 4

AL East Standings

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