D-Backs vs Phillies NLCS Odds and Game 1 Prediction

It’s an All-Wild Card Championship Series in the National League starting Monday night as the Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies square off for the first time ever in the playoffs. The Phils are home for Game 1 and favored on the MLB odds. | 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | NL Championship Series Game 1: D-Backs vs Phillies

How to Bet Diamondbacks at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 8:07 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Zac Gallen/Zack Wheeler
TV: TBS
Stream/gameday audio: TBS app
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -165, Diamondbacks +145 (total 7.5)

Series History

It’s the first time these teams will meet in the playoffs. The Phillies won the regular season series 4-3 – taking four of the final five. A total of five of the seven were decided by one run and Arizona lost two games in extra innings.

Why Bet on Arizona?

Arizona hasn’t lost in these playoffs yet and never trailed in the NLDS vs. the Dodgers, sweeping out LA 4-2 last Wednesday in Game 3. The D-backs, who finished with 16 fewer regular-season wins than the Dodgers, would become the sixth team to win a postseason series against an opponent with 16+ regular-season wins ahead.

Good young catcher Gabriel Moreno left after an HBP in Game 3 but is fine. Moreno is only the fourth catcher age 23 or younger to collect multiple homers in a postseason (also: Brian McCann/ATL in 2005 at age 21, Yadier Molin/STL in 2006 at age 23, Johnny Bench in 1970 at age 22). Arizona has homered in 16 consecutive postseason games dating back to 2007 NLCS Game 3 @ Rockies, which is the second-longest streak in MLB postseason history, behind the Yankees (23 games from 2019-22).

The D-backs are seeing the most pitches of any team in the playoffs. They’re the only offense averaging over four pitches per plate appearance, with hitters like Alek Thomas (4.52 pitches/PA), Christian Walker (4.52) and Tommy Pham (4.48) leading the way.

“I think this team is capable of doing anything,” manager Torey Lovullo said after the D-backs upset Los Angeles. “We’re a very dynamic team. It’s about having mature at-bats and handing it off to the next guy, not doing too much.”

One thing that seems certain is that the D-backs will alter the composition of their roster from the NLDS to the NLCS. Instead of utilizing 14 position players and 12 pitchers as they did against the Dodgers, they will likely go with an even split against the Phillies.

It’s ace right-hander Zac Gallen on the mound Monday. Gallen was terrific in last Monday night’s victory over the Dodgers in Game 2 of the NLDS, allowing just two runs on five hits across his 5 1/3 frames. Gallen punched out four batters on the evening while issuing a pair of free passes. He served up a solo homer to J.D. Martinez in the fourth inning, then exited the game with two men on and one out in the sixth inning — and one of the inherited runners ultimately came around to score. Gallen got eight whiffs on 84 pitches in the ballgame — five of those on his fastball — while posting a CSW 27 percent.

Gallen has allowed four runs across 11.1 innings over his two postseason starts to earn himself the honor of starting Game 1 of Arizona’s first NLCS appearance in 16 years. He surrendered two runs over 5.2 innings while striking out three batters and walking two during his lone 2023 regular-season matchup with the Phillies in May.

“Nobody expects us to be here,” Gallen said last week. “We’re kind of playing with house money. You see us play our best baseball when we’re playing kind of easy, carefree. And I think that’s just the mentality I’ll have out there, the mentality the other 26 guys are going to have, too.”

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies eliminated MLB-best Atlanta 3-1 on Thursday to reach a second straight LCS – it beat San Diego last year and then lost to Houston in the World Series. Philadelphia is the first team in MLB playoff history to beat the same opponent in consecutive postseasons after having 10-plus fewer wins than the opponent both times.

The Phils are now 15-4 (.789) all-time in potential series-clinching games, the second-best winning percentage in that scenario behind the Marlins (min. 5 games). At home, the Phillies are 9-2 all-time in clinching games and they are 6-1 at Citizens Bank Park.

Philly has won straight home postseason wins versus NL opponents, tied for the longest home winning streak in the playoffs versus a team’s own league in the divisional era (since 1969).

The team has nine homers in the past two games, tied for the most in a two-game span in MLB postseason history (Cubs in 2015 NLDS); 14 of 20 runs scored in the series came via HR (70%), the highest rate in a playoff series in Phillies history. Nick Castellanos became the first player in MLB history to have back-to-back multi-homerun games in the postseason.

Shortstop Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit (12 total) in each of the Phillies six playoff games. His six-game hitting streak is the fourth-longest to begin a postseason in franchise history (Mariano Duncan 7 games in 1993, Ryan Howard 8 games in 2009 and Lenny Dykstra 10 games in 1993). Turner is the first Phillies player to have at least 12 hits in his first six playoff games with the team and he is the first Phillie in franchise history to have at least four hits in a postseason game.

Ace Zack Wheeler will get the call. Wheeler went 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 32 regular-season starts, but he takes his pitching to another level in the postseason. Wheeler is 2-3 with a 2.59 ERA in eight career postseason starts. There are 121 pitchers in baseball history who have started eight or more postseason games. Wheeler ranks 19th in ERA. He is first in WHIP (0.72). Hall of Famers Christy Mathewson (0.85) and Bob Gibson (0.89) are second and third, respectively.

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