Giants vs Diamondbacks Wild Card Race: Key Pitchers to Watch, Expert Analysis & Picks

Two NL West teams battling for a wild-card spot meet in an important series starting Tuesday night as the Arizona Diamondbacks visit the San Francisco Giants, who are short favorites on the MLB odds despite having slipped back under .500.

Arizona at San Francisco: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks were without Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for Monday’s series finale against the Dodgers after he exited Sunday’s game with a calf injury. Gurriel ran out a double play in the sixth inning and came up hobbled. He reached down to his lower leg and gingerly walked back to the dugout. Gurriel entered the game as one of Arizona’s hottest hitters, with an .871 OPS in 24 games played during August. Overall, Gurriel is hitting .274/.316/.428 with 17 home runs over 522 plate appearances this season, while posting solid defensive metrics across the board as the Diamondbacks’ everyday left fielder.

Arizona’s Injuries

Arizona is already missing right-handed bats Christian Walker (oblique) and Gabriel Moreno (adductor) from the lineup, along with switch-hitter Ketel Marte (ankle) with all on the injured list. However, Walker might be activated on Tuesday and Marte later this week. Walker has been working out at the team’s spring training complex in Arizona and got in some live at-bats over the weekend. The first baseman has been sidelined since late July.

Josh Bell has played nearly every day in Walker’s place after coming over in trade from the Miami Marlins, and Manager Torey Lovullo does not intend to revert the switch-hitter to a solely pinch hitting role when Walker reenters the batting order. Bell is hitting .284 since the trade, with four homers and 13 RBIs in 27 games.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo confirmed Christian Walker is traveling with the club to San Francisco for their three-game series against the Giants. https://t.co/IlZOKZ05NV

— Arizona Sports (@AZSports) September 3, 2024

Since Aug. 1, the D-backs lead MLB with 27 games with 2+ runs scored in the sixth inning or later, ahead of the Phillies (20), Padres (18) and Royals (18). The D-backs’ 20 games of 2+ runs in the seventh inning or later also leads MLB.

Ryne Nelson

It’s righty on the mound Tuesday. Nelson (9-6) didn’t factor into the decision last Thursday against the Mets, allowing two runs on eight hits over 6.1 innings. He struck out four. The only damage against Nelson came on a pair of solo home runs, a Pete Alonso blast in the second inning and a Francisco Lindor shot to lead off the sixth. It was the fourth straight quality start for Nelson, who has pitched to a 2.76 ERA in his last 11 outings (68.1 innings) to solidify his spot in Arizona’s rotation.

Overall, the 26-year-old has a 4.22 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 112:30 K:BB across 136.1 innings this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.73 continues to be a strong point, suggesting potential for better outcomes if his BABIP of .315 normalizes.

Nelson is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Giants. He last faced them on June 9 at home and took a no-decision, allowing two runs and six hits over 7.2 innings.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have to get hot now if they have any wild-card chance, but it’s probably over with the team back under .500 and entering off back-to-back terrible home losses to a bad Miami team. The series loss to the Marlins represented the latest nadir for the Giants (68-70), whose playoff odds now stand at a season-low 0.3 percent. They’ll face an uphill battle just to finish above .500 this year, as each of their final 24 games will come against teams with winning records.

Mike Yastrzemski

One bright spot in Sunday’s 7-5 defeat was outfielder hitting the 100th homer of his career, achieved over six seasons. Yastrzemski and his grandfather, Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski, became the fourth grandfather and grandson duo to each hit at least 100 homers in their MLB careers, joining former Giant David Bell and his grandfather Gus Bell, as well as brothers Aaron Boone and Bret Boone and their grandfather Ray Boone.

It’s been a down year in the power department overall, though, as Mike’s 12 homers are his lowest total since hitting 10 in 54 games in the shortened 2020 campaign. Yastrzemski has picked up the pace recently, going 7-for-26 (.269) with three homers and five RBI over his last seven games, lifting his season slash line to .239/.309/.430 across 389 plate appearances.

Triston Beck

Ahead of Sunday’s game, the team activated a reliever, although he didn’t pitch. He hasn’t pitched in MLB this year after recovering from surgery to remove an aneurysm from his upper right arm that was found during Spring Training. Beck made five rehab starts for Triple-A Sacramento, logging a 7.90 ERA (12er, 13.2ip) with 17 strikeouts and three walks. The 28-year-old appeared in 33 games (three starts) for the Giants last year, posting a 3.92 ERA.

Kyle Harrison

It’s young lefty on the mound Tuesday. Harrison (7-6) allowed five runs on four hits and three walks while striking out seven over 4.2 innings to take the loss last Wednesday versus the Brewers. Harrison had his previous start skipped, and it appeared for a while that the extra rest had served him well. That changed in a rough fifth inning, which saw Harrison surrender five runs before he was pulled with two outs.

Harrison has given up 17 runs over 24 innings across five starts in August, a span that’s seen him yield seven home runs. It often feels like Harrison takes one step forward before two steps back and still can’t find the consistency he needs from start to start. He’s now at a 4.22 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 115:41 K:BB through 121.2 innings over 23 starts this year. He’s already past his previous high of 113 innings in a season and if the Giants drop much further out of the playoff race, there’s a chance Harrison could be shut down soon.

Harrison is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this year vs. Arizona. He last faced the Diamondbacks on June 4 and took the loss in allowing four runs (three earned) over six innings.

Diamondbacks at Giants Info

When: Tuesday, 9:45 PM ET
Where: Chase Field
Pitchers (away/home): Ryne Nelson/Kyle Harrison
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

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