MLB Odds Today: AL Central Division Betting Analysis for 2024 Season

 

AL Central Favorites to Win, Upsets, and Surprises for the 2023 Season | MLB Betting

When you look at the final MLB regular season standings in 2022, you see a few divisions that were won in landslide fashion. It would be easy to take the winners of those divisions to repeat again this season, but you have to take into account what the other teams have done in the offseason in an attempt to close the gap. Will those changes make a difference and make those lopsided divisions a little more competitive in 2023? The AL Central was one of the divisions that was not particularly competitive last season, with the Cleveland Guardians winning by 11 games when all was said and done. Will it be more of the same this time around? Let’s look at the current MLB odds.

 

Cleveland Guardians (+135)

The Guardians won the division in a canter last year, with their young squad hammering their division rivals coming down the stretch to pull away. This year might be a little different in that there are fewer divisional games being played, with each team facing one another 13 times instead of 19. The Guardians had the fewest wins of all the division winners with 92 and may need to do better than that this season to repeat.

 

Chicago White Sox (+200)

The White Sox will start the season with a new manager on the bench and the hope that they can improve on their 81-81 record from 2022. The departure of Tony LaRussa should make things a little more comfortable for the players, but there are still some issues to deal with, perhaps none bigger than losing Jose Abreu to the Houston Astros. I think this could be a similar type of season for Chicago, who will likely land in 3rd.

 

Minnesota Twins (+250)

If I was ready to wager on the division now, I think my money might well be going in the direction of the Twins. They made some major changes in the offseason as they look to improve on their 78-84 record from last year, Their starting rotation looks solid, and if this team can avoid the injuries that plagued them last season, I think they might pip the Guardians and come away with the division title.

Detroit Tigers (+2000)

All you need to do is look at these odds to see that this looks to be another bleak season for the Tigers. They went 66-96 last season and now have just 1 winning season in their last 8 attempts. None of that bodes well for their 2023 campaign. The changes that the Tiger made in the offseason were about bringing in utility players who are not exactly game changers but who can play a variety of positions. New faces, but very likely the same result.

 

Kansas City Royals (+4000)

Anyone expecting something special from the Royals this season in probably in for a rude awakening. KC went just 65-97 last season and I think there is a very good chance that they actually get worse in 2023. Their starters are getting a little long in the tooth now, which is frightening for a team that surrendered 810 runs in 2022. The changes they made in the offseason did little to address the many issues that this team has, so expect them to be in the cellar again in the Central.

 

 

March 22

Odds MLB AL Central Season Predictions: Winner and Upset

The Chicago White Sox are defending AL Central champions as they won the division in 2021 by a whopping 13 games. The Sox are -200 favorites to repeat, but the Detroit Tigers and Minnesota Twins specifically have gotten a lot better this offseason and could challenge the Pale Hose.

Chicago was in first place for 152 days in 2021 (every day since 5/7), the third-highest total in franchise history behind the 2005 (183) and 2000 (169) clubs. The Sox moved into first place for good with a 3-0 victory at Kansas City on 5/7, took an 8.0-game lead into the All-Star Break, and their lead was never smaller than 9.0 games after 8/1. The Sox owned a 10.0-plus game lead at any point in one season for the fifth time in franchise history.

The White Sox recorded a winning record in all sixth months in 2021 and have posted eight straight winning months dating back to last season, their longest streak since a nine-month run from June 1993-August 1994.

Pitching really carried Chicago last season as the White Sox ranked sixth in the major leagues with a 3.81 ERA in 2021, which was their lowest mark since 2005 (3.61). The starting rotation ranked eighth in the majors with a 3.85 ERA, its lowest mark since 2005 (3.75). Sox pitchers set new franchise records in strikeouts (1,588), strikeouts per 9.0 IP (10.18) and strikeout percentage (.279), as well as strikeouts by the starting rotation (944) and bullpen (644).

The White Sox ranked fourth in the American League with a +160 run differential, trailing only Tampa Bay (+206), Houston (+205) and Toronto (+183). Alas, the season ended in disappointing fashion, an ALDS four-game loss to Houston.

The 2022 starting lineup should be mostly the same other than at second base with new addition Josh Harrison. He was signed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract. Harrison’s deal also includes a $5.5 million team option for the 2023 season and a $1.5 million buyout. He slashed .279/.341/.400 with eight home runs, 60 RBI, and nine stolen bases over 558 plate appearances last year between the Athletics and Nationals. Starting pitcher Carlos Rodon left in free agency and will be replaced by Michael Kopech, who was terrific out of the bullpen last year.

The Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers are +600 second-favorites and both added a star shortstop in free agency. The Tigers offered Houston All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa a 10-year, $275 million deal but he turned it down. Detroit pivoted to the Mets’ Javy Baez for six years and $140 million. The $140 million contract is the Tigers’ largest for a free agent since Prince Fielder a decade ago, and the largest contract of any sort since Christopher Ilitch became the team’s owner.

The Tigers centered their rebuilding project around pitching and rode their young starters to a 77-win season in 2021, their best win total since 2016. With two of baseball’s top offensive prospects in corner infielder Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene, the future already looked bright in Detroit. To take the next step towards contention, however, the Tigers needed a shortstop.

Baez strikes out a lot but is a phenomenal defensive presence. That would be a benefit to any team, but especially so to the Tigers, who ranked dead-last in defensive runs above average in 2021.

The Twins landed Correa this past weekend in a pretty big surprise as he agreed on a three-year, $105 million deal with two opt-outs. Correa, 27, batted .279/.366/.485 (131 OPS+) with 26 home runs last season. He made his second career All-Star Game and won his first Gold Glove Award for his stellar play at the shortstop position. He also finished fifth in Most Valuable Player Award voting, his highest career finish.

Minnesota has been very active since the lockout was lifted. They traded catcher Mitch Garver to the Rangers, using part of that return along with Josh Donaldson to get Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela from the Yankees. They acquired pitcher Sonny Gray from the Reds via trade, too.

The Cleveland Indians are now known as the Cleveland Guardians and they are +900 to win the Central with the Royals at +1200. Neither is going to win the division and neither has done much this offseason. Kansas City does have AL Rookie of the Year favorite Bobby Witt Jr.

In the last five full seasons (not counting the 60-game season in 2020), the AL Central champion has finished ahead of the second-place club by an average of 11 1/2 games. And in each of the last four full seasons, either three or four teams out of five have finished with a losing record.

Expert Pick

• White Sox repeat as champions, Twins earn a wild-card spot.

 

 

June 24

Indians vs Twins | Who Will Gain Ground in the AL Central Division?

With the Chicago White Sox being hit hard by injuries and struggling mightily of late, it’s a good time for the Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins to gain ground in the AL Central Division. They open a series in the Twin Cities on Thursday with the Twins favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Indians at Twins MLB Odds & TV Info

• When: Thursday, 8:10 PM ET
• Where: Target Field
• Probable pitchers (away/home): Jean Carlos Mejia/Jose Berrios
• TV: MLB Extra Innings
• Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

Why Bet on Cleveland?

Cleveland opened this week splitting two at the Cubs and was off Wednesday. Eddie Rosario is riding a 10-game hit streak, batting .352 in that stretch. He has raised his average from .203 to .254 over the last 29 games overall. Rosario is traditionally a slow starter and hit just .241 in April but .294 in May and over .300 in June.

Outfielder/DH Franmil Reyes began a minor league rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus earlier this week. The 25-year-old was originally slated to miss about 5-7 weeks with an internal oblique strain, but could dramatically beat that timetable. He suffered the injury back on May 22. Catcher Roberto Perez began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Wednesday.

It’s Jean Carlos Mejia (1-2) on the mound for the Indians. Mejia took the loss in last Friday’s 11-10 defeat at the hands of the Pirates, coughing up six runs on seven hits over five innings. He allowed five runs before getting his second out in the first inning but struck out the final two batters of that inning and limited the Pirates to one run over the next four frames, giving the Indians a chance to get back into the game.

It ended up being the rookie right-hander’s longest outing so far in the majors. Mejia’s has 6.11 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 1.25 WHIP and 16:5 K:BB through 17.2 innings. Injuries elsewhere will keep him in the rotation for now. The latest injury to a top Indians starter happened this week with Aaron Civale, who was lifted from Monday’s start against the Cubs in the fifth inning. He will see a hand specialist. Fellow starters Shane Bieber (reigning AL Cy Young winner) and Zach Plesac are also hurt.

Why Bet on Minnesota?

Minnesota slugger Nelson Cruz has reached base safely in 17-straight games, batting .400 (24-for-60) with a .486 on-base percentage in that span. His last longer on-base streak was a 24-game run from April 9-May 6, 2017. Alex Kirilloff has a hit in 13 of his last 15 games, batting .315 (17-for-54) in that span. He also has five RBI in his last five games, after recording just one in his previous five.

The Twins got terrible injury news this week when dynamic outfielder Byron Buxton was hit by a pitch Monday and fractured his left hand. He will miss several weeks. In just his third game since being activated from the injured list following his recovery from a hip strain, Buxton was struck on the left hand by a 93.7 mph fastball from Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle during the fourth inning. Buxton is hitting .369/.409/.767 with 10 homers, 11 doubles and five steals in 27 games so far this season.

The Twins have cycled through various options in Buxton’s absence this year, although two in-house alternatives — Jake Cave and Rob Refsnyder — are on the injured list themselves at the moment. Prospect Gilberto Celestino was called up to take Buxton’s roster spot and could play every day in center field for the time being.

It’s former All-Star right-hander Jose Berrios (7-2) on the mound here. Berrios pitched six innings and allowed three runs last Friday in a no-decision versus the Rangers. Berrios got off to a shaky start, allowing three hits and a walk as Texas scored two runs in the first inning. He settled in well after that, although he wasn’t able to pick up a win, which has now been the case for his last three starts.

Berrios has a 3.56 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 87:21 K:BB across 83.1 innings this year. He’s gone 4-0 with a 3.13 ERA in five starts over the past month, striking out 32 batters while walking just six in 31 2/3 innings. If the Twins become sellers ahead of the trade deadline, Berrios could bring back a nice haul if they were to make him available. Berrios has one final year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting free agency in the 2022-23 offseason.

Berrios has faced the Indians once this season, on April 26 at Progressive Field. He took a no-decision, yielding two runs on five hits, with one walk and three strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work; Twins lost, 5-3, in 10 innings. He is 5-3 with a 3.91 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Cleveland.

Game Trends

• Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss.
• Twins are 4-9 in their last 13 games following an off day.
• Indians are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota.
• Under is 35-14-2 in the last 51 meetings in Minnesota.
• Over is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings.

Expert MLB Prediction

Twins 5, Indians 3