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It’s a potential National League playoff preview on Wednesday night and a terrific pitching matchup as the Milwaukee Brewers and ace Freddy Peralta visit the Atlanta Braves and NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale, with the Braves favored on the MLB odds.

Milwaukee at Atlanta: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines: Braves -155, Brewers +140 (total 7.5)
Score Prediction: Braves 4, Brewers 3

Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline +132

Barring something very unforeseen, the Brewers are going to win the NL Central – a division that might see only Milwaukee finish with a winning record as teams like the Cubs and Reds have disappointed. Former closer Trevor Magill remains on the injured list with a lower-back injury, but former All-Star Devin Williams has taken over that role after missing about the first half of the year injured himself.

Bryan Hudson

In addition, lefty reliever Hudson is on the IL. He was put there on July 27 due to an oblique injury. Hudson said the tests revealed promising news of only a low-grade strain, but his absence is a tough loss for Milwaukee’s bullpen. He has posted a 1.60 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP in 50 2/3 innings this season, and his 35 appearances entering July 27 were tied for fourth most on the team. Hudson has begun a minor-league rehab, but Manager Pat Murphy said Hudson would need multiple outings before returning to the active roster.

Christian Yelich

By far the biggest injury, though, is to former NL MVP and outfielder Yelich. He saw a spine specialist on July 25 to discuss options with his lower back troubles, which run the gamut from rest and treatment to season-ending surgery for the 32-year-old All-Star, and decided to try rehab first. Yelich might need surgery in the off season. Both Murphy and Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold remain hopeful about the chances Yelich will play again this year. Even with the back issues, the 32-year-old Yelich is batting .315 with a .406 on-base percentage, 11 homers, 42 RBI’s and 21 steals in 73 games.

Freddy Peralta on the Mound

It’s righty Peralta (6-6, 3.89 ERA) on the hill Wednesday. Peralta came away with a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 6-2 loss to Atlanta, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks over six innings. He struck out seven. Peralta served up back-to-back homers to Matt Olson and Travis d’Arnaud in the fourth inning, but otherwise Peralta went unscathed as he delivered his ninth quality start of the year on 101 pitches (59 strikes).

The 28-year-old notched only 10 swinging strikes and finished with a lackluster 25 percent CSW but over his last eight outings, Peralta has given up more than three runs only once, posting a 3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 51:18 K:BB through 44.1 innings. Overall this year, the team has gone 13-9 in his starts. Peralta has quality starts and opponents are batting .220 (98-for-446, 18 HR) off him.

Peralta is 3-2 with a 4.19 ERA in 7 games/6 starts in his career vs. Atlanta. His only regular-season appearance at Truist Park came in a start on Aug. 10, 2018, as he took a 10-1 loss by allowing seven runs in three innings.

Pitching Stats

Looking at the last eight World Series champions, the average league rank in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) from starting pitchers during the regular season is 5.9. This year, the Brewers rank 26th in MLB in WAR from their starting staff. Milwaukee is on pace to get 770 innings from its starters, which is fewer than five innings per start. Only once before has a team gotten fewer than 800 innings from its starters in a full, 162-game season and won a multi-game playoff series (2019 Yankees).

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Atlanta Braves Moneyline -156

Atlanta, which should be an NL wild-card team, went 5-1 in six games with Milwaukee last year, matching the best single-season winning percentage against the club since the Brewers moved to the National League in 1998. Last year marked the first time the Braves won the season set with the Brewers since 2017. Atlanta swept three games between the two clubs here at Truist Park last season, and is 12-6 (.667) versus Milwaukee at home (entering Tuesday) since the facility opened in 2017.

Michael Harris

Atlanta outfielder Harris, the former NL Rookie of the Year, began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday. He has been sidelined for nearly two months with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. Harris was originally believed to be progressing well from the hamstring issue with a possible return after the All-Star Game, but a minor setback pushed him back a few weeks.

He is eligible to return from the 60-day injured list on Aug. 14 when the Braves will be in the midst of a 10-day, 10-game West Coast road trip in San Francisco, and the expectation is he’ll be ready to go then. Harris was not having his best season offensively before the injury, batting just .250/.295/.358 with a 81 wRC+, but is a terrific defender.

Ozzie Albies

Second baseman Albies was placed on the 10-day injured list on July 21 after sustaining a fractured wrist against the Cardinals. The team announced that he is expected to miss approximately eight weeks – meaning he will not be back before September. Albies, a three-time All-Star, is hitting .255 with eight home runs and 46 RBIs this season while batting almost exclusively from the No. 2 spot in the order. Albies is clearly missed, as the Braves have now been shut out six times this season, and all of them have come since June 5.

While Atlanta’s offense as a whole is nowhere near what it was last year – in large part due to the season-ending injury to Ronald Acuna Jr., third baseman Austin Riley is having a fine year. Four of his six three-hit games have come since June 14, and Riley’s 2.2 fWAR since that date are most by a third baseman in the National League and trail just Boston’s Rafael Devers (2.3) at the position in MLB. Riley ranks in the 94th percentile of batters in baseball, with an average exit velocity of 92.8 mph.

Chris Sale on the Hill

It’s ace lefty and NL Cy Young favorite Sale (13-3, 2.71 ERA) on the mound Wednesday – he was originally scheduled for Tuesday but given an extra day of rest. Sale came away with a no-decision in last Wednesday’s 6-2 win over the Brewers, giving up two runs on six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings. He struck out six.

Sale wasn’t quite efficient enough to record his 12th quality start of the season or his 14th win, getting the hook after 100 pitches (68 strikes) with the score still tied 2-2. Sale extended his streak of starts allowing two runs or fewer to nine — since a rough outing against the A’s on June 1, he’s delivered a 2.28 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 73:18 K:BB over his last 55.1 innings. He is 1-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three career appearances vs. Milwaukee.

Chris generally doesn’t go super deep into games at age 35 and with all his injury history, but Atlanta’s relievers have limited opponents to a .215 batting average with runners in scoring position, the best mark in the National League and the second lowest in MLB. The Braves’ bullpen has posted a .191 opponents’ batting average with RISP at Truist Park. The Braves have six relievers with sub-3.00 ERAs, most in MLB (min. 25 games).

Bet Brewers at Braves MLB Odds

When: Wednesday, 7:20 PM ET
Where: Truist Park
Pitchers (away/home): Freddy Peralta/Chris Sale
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/ ^