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Marlins rookie pitcher Eury Perez has been largely sensational in his short time in the major leagues, yet Wednesday’s matchup in Seattle against Mariners ace Luis Castillo might be Perez’s last in the Show for a while as he might be sent down. The M’s are favored on the MLB odds.

Marlins vs. Mariners | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Miami at Seattle MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 9:40 PM ET
Where: T-Mobile Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Eury Perez/Luis Castillo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Mariners -180, Marlins +160 (total 7)

Why Bet on Miami?

The Marlins are 17-5 (.773) in games decided by one run, the most one-run victories and best winning percentage in such games in MLB. It marks the highest winning pct. in one-run games by any team in the Modern Era (since 1901). The 2016 Texas Rangers own the second-best mark (.766; 36-11). Miami has 20 comeback wins this season.

The Marlins remain without arguably their best all-around player in Jazz Chisholm Jr. He told reporters this week that he’ll need to undergo offseason foot surgery but at least Chisholm Jr. has progressed to hitting, playing catch and doing running and jumping drills as he continues his rehabilitation process after landing on the injured list last month due to turf toe. The 25-year-old is hoping to return sometime before the end of June.

It’s rookie right-hander Eury Perez (3-1, 2.17) on the mound Wednesday. He pitched well in a no-decision against the White Sox last Friday, surrendering just one run on five hits over five frames. Perez racked up six strikeouts the night while issuing two walks. During a 21-pitch third inning with the Marlins down 1-0, the White Sox loaded the bases with no outs. But the 20-year-old escaped the jam without allowing a run.

“I thought that was a huge moment for him and his development,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said. “He couldn’t just out-stuff [batters], he had to actually pitch.”

The only blemish on Perez’s night came on a solo blast off the bat of Yasmani Grandal in the second inning. Perez generated 13 swinging strikes on 82 pitches in the ballgame — six of those on his slider — while registering a CSW of 28 percent. He has compiling a 2.17 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and a 30/13 K/BB ratio across 29 innings.

Why would the Marlins send Perez down? Because fellow starter Trevor Rogers is close to activation off the injured list and Perez has never thrown more than 78 innings in a pro season and has already reached 60 frames between the majors and minors in 2023, so some level of workload management is necessary. The Marlins will limit Perez to 100-120 innings this season and sending him to the minors would more easily allow the team to limit his starts to one per 7-to-10 days. He then could be recalled in September should Miami remain in playoff contention.

Marlins pitchers have only allowed 2 home runs in the 1st inning this year, the second-fewest in MLB, trailing only Atlanta (1 HR). Miami has gone 50 games without allowing a home run in the first inning, the 5th longest such streak in club history. The Marlins longest such streak is 63 games, done in 1996.

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Why Bet on Seattle?

In 33 games against .500-or-better teams this season, the Mariners are 13-22. In 31 games against below-.500 teams, the Mariners are 20-11.

DH Teoscar Hernandez is rolling right now for the Mariners. As of Tuesday, he has five multi-hit efforts in the last eight games and is hitting a blistering .400 (12-for-30) over that span while recording four extra-base hits, eight RBI, four walks and five runs. While his .252/.295/.432 slash line remains below the standards he established in Toronto the previous three seasons, Hernandez may be hitting his stride if his 11.8 percent walk rate and reduced 23.5 percent strikeout rate during the hot streak can continue.

Julio Rodríguez (12 home runs, 12 stolen bases) is one of three MLB with 12+ home runs and 12+ stolen bases this season, along with Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna and Arizona’s Corbin Carroll. Rodriguez reached 10 HR/10 SB in 54 games this season, tied for 2nd-fastest Mariners player to reach those feats in a season in franchise history.

It’s ace right-hander Luis Castillo on the mound. In 13 starts this season, Luis Castillo is 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA (23 ER, 76.2 IP) with 17 walks and a team-leading 92 strikeouts. He has posted a 0.991 WHIP.

Castillo (4-4) allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk while striking out 10 over six innings, taking the loss last Friday versus the Angels. It was Castillo’s second 10-strikeout effort of the season, both of which have come in his last three starts. He also gave up multiple home runs for the second time this year, and the five runs allowed were the second-highest total he’s given up.

He gave up homers to Shohei Ohtani and Mickey Moniak against the Angels. The one to Ohtani was a middle-middle changeup in a 1-0 count, right in the slugger’s wheelhouse, and he crushed it 440 feet and to the berm beyond center field. The one to Moniak was on a 97.1 mph fastball up, the fourth of the at-bat, and in a 1-2 count when Castillo opted for gas instead of using his breaking ball to induce a chase.

“I wouldn’t say it was a good game because obviously we didn’t get the win,” Castillo said after the loss. “But the most important thing for me, what I take away, is that I just competed and competed.”

Castillo at one time was in the Marlins organization but never pitched in the Show for them. On Jan. 19, 2017, the Marlins traded Castillo, Austin Brice and Isaiah White to the Cincinnati Reds for Dan Straily in what proved a steal for Cincinnati.

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