Miami Marlins vs NY Mets Odds, Pick & Score Prediction

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets are at the bottom of the NL East Division and two of the more disappointing teams in the Senior Circuit as they continue their series Wednesday from Queens in a matchup of lefties. The Mets are favored on the MLB odds.

Miami at New York Mets: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Wager Line Mets -140, Marlins +125 (total 7.5)
Score Prediction Mets 4, Marlins 3

Bet Miami Marlins Odds +113

Ahead of Tuesday’s series opener, the Marlins sent infielders Tristan Gray and Xavier Edwards to Triple-A Jacksonville and reinstated second baseman Otto Lopez and shortstop Tim Anderson from the Paternity List. Lopez has been a nice surprise for the Marlins, hitting .295 with three home runs, 18 RBI, and four steals. Anderson is a former AL batting champion with the White Sox, but is simply not very good these days, hitting .188 with no homers.

Entering this series, the Marlins have gone just 55-80 at Citi Field since its opening in 2009. The Marlins look to win their first series in Flushing since Aug. 2020, coming off their series win at home against the Mets from May 17-19 at loan Depot park.

It’s lefty Braxton Garrett on the hill for Miami. Garrett (2-1) took the loss last Wednesday against Tampa Bay, allowing five runs on six hits and a walk across 2.2 innings. He struck out three. The Rays jumped on him for three runs in the opening inning on RBI doubles by Isaac Paredes and Josh Lowe. They then pushed across another pair while chasing Garrett in the third inning. He got nine swings and misses on just 53 pitches in the ballgame — five on his slider — while posting a strong CSW of 34 percent.

Garrett seemed to have turned a corner after yielding 11 runs over his first two starts this year by allowing just one run over 14.0 innings in his ensuing pair of starts. However, he couldn’t keep that form in surrendering three doubles vs. Tampa Bay and failing to make it through three innings for the first time. Garrett owns a 5.81 ERA and a 24:4 K:BB over 26.1 innings this season.

Back on May 24 in Arizona, Garrett, whose season didn’t start until May 12 because of a left shoulder impingement, joined Dontrelle Willis (April 8, 2005) as the only southpaws in franchise history to record a complete game on fewer than 100 pitches (known as a Maddux). Garrett did it on 95 pitches.

The 26-year-old Garrett broke out in 2023 after making the Opening Day roster out of the bullpen. He went on to set career highs across the board — from innings to strikeouts — with a 123 ERA+ in 31 games (30 starts). His 5.38 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranked third in the National League (minimum 150 innings), trailing only Logan Webb (6.26) and Zack Wheeler (5.44). By the end of the season, Garrett had become the club’s most consistent starter, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 25 outings.

Garrett is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA (20 ER/36.2 IP) in eight career appearances vs. the Mets. His 31 career strikeouts against them are tied for his most against a single team with Pittsburgh. Garrett faced the Mets on May 18 in Miami and allowed 6 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 5 strikeouts in 4.0 innings of work.

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MyBookie MLB Betting Lines to Win

Bet New York Mets Odds -138

The Mets got a little better on Tuesday when they activated No. 1 catcher Francisco Alvarez off the IL and All-Star closer Edwin Diaz could follow on Wednesday. Alvarez had been sidelined since having surgery to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb on April 23. He injured the finger four days earlier after slipping while rounding first base against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Alvarez was hitting .236 with one home run and eight RBI in 16 games before the injury. With the return of Alvarez, the Mets also made their decision with their backup catcher situation, with Luis Torrens sticking around and Tomas Nido designated for assignment. Torrens was acquired from the Yankees last month as a replacement for Omar Narvaez, who was released after a disappointing stint in Queens.

Even before Diaz hit the IL, the closer has not approached his typical level of success. After a somewhat encouraging start to 2024, having missed all of last year with a torn patellar in his right knee, Diaz faltered badly. In his last five appearances, the right-hander gave up eight earned runs, 10 hits and two homers in just 4.1 innings.

In 81 career games against Miami, Jeff McNeil has slashed .294/.376/.445 with 18 doubles, one triple, seven home runs, 30 RBI and 30 walks. Brandon Nimmo has posted a .383 OBP in 97 games with 55 walks against the club. Pete Alonso has hit 26 home runs in 81 career games against the Marlins.

Lefty David Peterson (1-0, 3.09 ERA) is on the mound for New York. Peterson (1-0) picked up the win last Tuesday, giving up two runs on five hits and two walks over 6.2 innings in a 6-3 victory over the Nationals. He struck out two.

The Nationals were very aggressive at the plate even though Peterson can be a bit wild at times, but he got 20 outs on just 81 pitches. All five hits he gave up were singles, and the second run he allowed was the product of a Joey Gallo grounder hitting first base and bouncing high into the air. Pete Alonso would have made the play otherwise, and Peterson probably would have gotten through seven having surrendered just one run.

Peterson had both his sinker and slider working, with 13 of his 20 outs coming by the way of the ground ball. The slider — Peterson’s bread and butter — produced six of his nine whiffs in the outing. Among the keys for Peterson was getting ahead in the count: he threw a first-pitch strike to 10 of the first 13 batters he faced.

“I tried to play into that and get quick outs, get ground balls early and keep the pitch count down and get the hitters back in the dugout because they were feeling it tonight” Peterson said. “I wanted to get them back running to the bat rack.”

Peterson recorded his first big-league win since July 27 of last year, which was also against Washington. Peterson has made a good case so far for sticking in the Mets’ rotation, allowing four earned runs in 11.2 innings over his first two starts. Peterson underwent surgery last November to repair a torn hip labrum. Now healthy, he’s getting better rotation than previously from his lower half.

Peterson is 2-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 26 career innings vs. the Miami. He last faced them on Sept. 28, 2023, and tossed 7.0 scoreless innings of relief and allowed four hits, four walks and struck out eight in a no decision.

Bet Marlins at Mets MLB Odds

When: Wednesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Pitchers (away/home): Braxton Garrett/David Peterson
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/