Marlins vs Phillies NL Wild Card Odds and Prediction for Game 1

The Philadelphia Phillies begin defense of the 2022 National League pennant on Tuesday night when they host the Miami Marlins in Game 1 of their NL wild card series with the Phils as solid favorites on the MLB odds. | 2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Analysis | MyBookie Sportsbook | NL Wild Card Game 1: Marlins vs Phillies

How to Bet Marlins at Phillies MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 8 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jesus Luzardo/Zack Wheeler
TV: ESPN
Stream/gameday audio: ESPN+
Opening MLB Lines: Phillies -165, Marlins +145 (total 7.5)

Series History

It’s the first-ever playoff matchup between the NL East rivals. Miami won the 2023 regular season series by a slim 7-6 margin, though Philadelphia outscored Miami 64-55.

Why Bet on Miami?

The last time the Marlins reached the postseason in a full season was 2003, when the club won the World Series as a Wild Card. Skip Schumacher became the third Marlins manager to secure a winning record in their first full season managing the team, joining Jim Leyland (92- 70; 1997) and Jack McKeon (83-79; 2004). Both Leyland and McKeon had previous managing experience prior to becoming the Marlins manager.

The big question is whether MLB batting champion Luis Arraez will play Tuesday or even in the series. Arraez hasn’t started a game in more than a week after aggravating a left ankle sprain on Sept. 23, but he did contribute a pinch-hit single off the bench last Friday and is expected to be in the Marlins’ Game 1 lineup. He slashed .354/.393/.469 with 10 home runs this year.

The 26-year-old Arraez became only the second player in the Modern Era to capture a batting title in both leagues, joining DJ LeMahieu (Rockies in 2016, Yankees in ‘20), and the first to do so in back-to-back seasons. His .354 average (147 games) is the highest in a full season since the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton’s .359 in 2010. The 17-point gap over the Braves’ Ronald Acuña Jr. (.337) is the largest in the league since ’18, when Mookie Betts (.346) led Red Sox teammate J.D. Martinez (.330) by 16 points. The Venezuelan is the third Marlin to reach the 200-hit plateau in a season, and his 203 knocks ranked third in MLB.

The Marlins have gone 33-13 in one-run games this year, with their .718 winning percentage in such games marking the best record in MLB. Only the Reds have won more games decided by one run (34). Miami’s .718 winning pct. in one-run games is the best mark in franchise history, while the 33 one-run wins are tied for the 2nd-most such wins with the 1997 and 2000 teams, trailing only the 2014 Marlins (35-29).

It’s lefty Jesus Luzardo (10-9, 3.63 ER) on the mound for Game 1. He last pitched on Sept. 3, allowing three runs over five against the Brewers. Luzardo went walk, double, single to open the sixth and was lifted. A.J. Puk replaced him and immediately gave up a three-run homer to Carlos Santana, tying the game at 4-4. Luzardo had allowed just one hit through five. His last six starts have seen him give up nine runs in two outings against the Brewers and two runs in four outings versus the rest of the league.

Luzardo set the single-season strikeout record (208) for a left-hander in franchise history. He finished with the fifth-highest K/9 rate (10.48) among qualified NL pitchers and the eighth-highest fWAR (3.7). Luzardo went 2-0 with a 3.65 ERA in two starts against the Phillies this season. He struck out 14 and walked two across 12 1/3 innings. On April 11, Luzardo held the Phillies to three runs on eight hits over six frames at Citizens Bank Park.

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Why Bet on Philadelphia?

The Phillies were the final team to qualify for the 2022 postseason, winning 87 games to clinch the final National League wild card. They stormed through the NL and came within two victories of winning a World Series championship. They will try to finish the job beginning Tuesday night with Game 1. The Phils won 90 games this year, their most since 2011.

“The Marlins are a good club,” Manager Rob Thomson said. “They won the season series, so they match up well with us. We have a lot of prep to do. They can beat you in a lot of different ways. They have speed. They have great pitching. They have a couple of guys with some thump in their lineup.”

Everybody is healthy except first baseman Rhys Hoskins and right-hander Dylan Covey. There has been plenty of interest in Hoskins’ recovery from left ACL surgery in March. Thomson said if Hoskins plays in the postseason, it would happen in the World Series. But if it happens, he could only DH or pinch-hit, which essentially would be a two-player move because he cannot play in the field.

Bryce Harper is expected to play first base every day in the postseason. His presence at first will allow Schwarber to DH, which will give the Phillies their best defensive outfield with Brandon Marsh/Christian Pache in left and Rojas in center.

It’s right-hander Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61) on the mound. Wheeler allowed one run over four innings in his regular-season finale Thursday against the Pirates. Wheeler struck out five while throwing 67 pitches. He had a 3.29 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 47 strikeouts in 41 innings over his final seven starts of the season.

Wheeler went 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three starts this season against the Marlins, striking out 17 and walking four in 18 innings. He is 10-4 with a 2.48 ERA in 22 career starts against them.

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2023 MLB Playoffs Expert Prediction

Phillies 4, Marlins 2

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