NL Wild Card Game 2: Braves vs Padres

The San Diego Padres have been the NL’s best team in the second half of the season and can punch their ticket to the NLDS and a date with the rival Dodgers by beating visiting Atlanta tonight in Game 2 of their Wild-Card Round series.

The Padres are short favorites on the MLB odds.

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Padres -139, Braves +105 (total 6.5)
Expert Prediction: Padres 4, Braves 3

Why Bet on Atlanta?

Atlanta has gone 3-4 against San Diego in each of the last three regular seasons, snapping a streak of five consecutive years in which the club won the season, set from 2016-2021. This series marks the Braves’ 45th postseason matchup in franchise history. The Braves are 102-108 all-time after Tuesday’s loss, despite outscoring the opposition 825-816. This marks Atlanta’s first appearance in a Wild Card Series since Major League Baseball expanded the postseason for the 2022 season. The Braves’ only other such series came in the COVID-altered postseason in 2020, when 16 teams made the playoffs. Atlanta swept Cincinnati, 2-0, in the Wild Card Round that year.

The Last Game in the Postseason

That Game 1 win in the 2020 Wild Card Series is the last time Atlanta opened its postseason campaign with a victory. The Braves lost Game 1 of the NLDS in 2021 to Milwaukee, dropped Game 1 of 2022 and 2023 NLDS to Philadelphia, and then lost Game 1 of this series.

The Braves’ Game 1 loss just got worse. Chris Sale, the likely Cy Young winner with an 18-3 record, is not starting Game 2 because of back spasms.

With injuries to Strider, Acuna, Riley and even Albies, it has not seemed like Atlanta’s year.

Now today doesn’t seem their day.
— Ed Werder (@WerderEdNFL) September 30, 2024

Game 1 Review

The Braves were in such a tough spot in Game 1 off Monday’s doubleheader against New York, using up the bullpen and flying across country. No surprise, then, that the Braves dropped the opener meekly 4-0 in San Diego. With ace Chris Sale left off the WC roster due to back troubles, the Braves had to start unheralded AJ Smith-Shawver, and he allowed two runs in the bottom of the first. That was basically that. Michael Harris II was a lone offensive bright spot going 2-for-4 in the loss. Harris has hit .405 and produced a .444 on-base percentage over his past 10 games.

“We know what’s at stake (Wednesday),” B Harris II said. “We’ve got to come out, be ourselves and try not to do too much. Even (Monday), it didn’t feel as one-sided as it looked.”

The Braves’ bullpen was taxed during Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets, and Aaron Bummer helped reset things with the 2 2/3 scoreless innings he provided in Game 1 after Smith-Shawver exited. Jesse Chavez then delivered two more scoreless frames. Luke Jackson ate the final two.

Max Fried

It’s lefty (11-0, 3.25 ERA) on the mound tonight. Fried twirled 8 2/3 shutout innings with nine strikeouts in a 3-0 win for the Braves last Friday against the Royals. He breezed through the first eight innings in under 90 pitches. Fried allowed just two base runners until that ninth inning and had pinpoint command of all four of his pitches. His shutout bid ended when Bobby Witt Jr. drew a two-out walk and then raced to third on Michael Massey’s double. Raisel Iglesias entered and needed just one pitch to record the final out. It was potentially Fried’s final regular-season start with the team ahead of free agency. The southpaw has posted a 2.39 ERA over his past eight starts.

“We’ve seen Max do that how many times, when we need him, and just have the game of his life,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “You could pretty much tell. When I saw that first inning, I was like this is going to be a good one.”

Fried is 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA in 65 career playoff innings. His past two October outings weren’t good, but Fried was dealing with an injury in 2022 and an illness in 2023 when facing the Phillies in the NLDS. Fried has no known issues this time.

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Game Odds provided by MyBookie Sportsbook

Why Bet on San Diego?

The Padres just completed one of the best regular seasons in franchise history. They won 93 games — only the 98-win 1998 team had more — and finished the year on an incredible 43-19 run. That continued in the opener vs. Atlanta.

Michael King

King was spectacular in the 4-0 win in Game 1 by tossing seven shutout innings. King gave up five hits, walked none and struck out 12. The Padres traded Juan Soto last off season because they needed pitching and payroll flexibility. King was the headliner in the package going to San Diego, and he has delivered in his first season with the Padres. King became the first pitcher in MLB history to strike out 12 without allowing a run or a walk in his first postseason start.

“He was fantastic,” said Padres manager Mike Shildt. “Everything was working.”

In the eighth inning, Jason Adam became the first Padres reliever to strike out the side in his postseason debut. Robert Suarez slammed the door in the ninth.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

The superstar went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in the victory. Tatis hit a two-run shot off AJ Smith-Shawver in the first inning and the Padres were on their way. Kyle Higashioka went 1-for-2 with a two-run home run off Luke Jackson in the eighth inning to break it open.

“They’ve been put in the worst possible situation, in terms of convenience at least. Teams are dangerous when they’ve got nothing to lose,” Higashioka said of the Braves. “For us, it’s about staying focused and not letting up ever and not taking anything for granted. We’ve got to come out and do it (Wednesday).”

FERNANDO TATIS JR. HITS THE FIRST HOME RUN OF THE 2024 #POSTSEASON 🚀 pic.twitter.com/XFqQ06zWTT
— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2024

Joe Musgrove

It’s righty (6-5, 3.88 ERA) on the mound tonight. Musgrove pitched 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball last Thursday in a no-decision against the Dodgers. Musgrove turned in six scoreless innings, but he and Tanner Scott combined to give up five runs in the seventh, and Scott wound up taking the loss. Before that seventh inning, Musgrove was working on a streak of 18 scoreless innings.

Musgrove was a force for the Padres during their 2022 postseason run, and he has been excellent down the stretch this season. Since returning from an elbow injury in early August, Musgrove has posted a 2.15 ERA with 57 strikeouts to just eight walks. He did not face Atlanta this season.