The NLCS is tied 1-1 as it shifts to Queens on Wednesday night as the Los Angeles Dodgers face the New York Mets in Game 3 with the Dodgers as very slight favorites on the MLB odds.
It’s New York’s first home NLCS game since 2015.
| Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Mets -102, Dodgers -116 (total 7.5) Expert Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 3 |
Why Bet on New York?
After getting slammed 9-0 in Game 1, the Mets jumped on the Dodgers early in Game 2 for a 7-3 win behind a solo homer from Francisco Lindor in the top of the first and a grand slam from rookie Mark Vientos in the second. It marked only the third time in playoff history that a club hit a leadoff home run and a grand slam in the same game along with the Orioles in Game 1 of the 1996 ALDS and the Yankees in Game 5 of the 1953 World Series, also against the Dodgers.
Francisco Lindor
Lindor’s shot was the 19th leadoff home run in NLCS history and the first since Kyle Schwarber’s leadoff blast in Game 1 of last year’s NLCS. Along with Schwarber’s homer in Game 3 of the 2022 NLCS, there has now been a leadoff home run in three consecutive NLCS. Along with leadoff homers in the 2018, 2019 and 2020 NLCS, there has now been a leadoff home run in six of the last seven NLCS. Lindor has now reached in all nine of New York’s playoff games this year. He is the eighth Mets player to reach safely in at least nine consecutive games to begin a postseason and the first to do so since Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy each reached in all 14 games of the Mets’ 2015 World Series run.
.@HowieRose on the mic for @MarkVientos_5 🎙️
— x – New York Mets (@Mets) October 16, 2024
Did you expect anything short of perfection? pic.twitter.com/0rnJaFE60p
Mark Vientos
Vientos’ grand slam was the third in franchise history in the playoffs and second of this postseason after Lindor’s slam in the sixth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS vs. the Phillies. The Mets are the 13th club with multiple grand slams within the same Postseason and the first since the Texas Rangers also clubbed two grand slams last year en route to winning the World Series. Of the 12 clubs who have previously hit multiple grand slams in a postseason, five have gone on to win the World Series.
The blast marked Vientos’ first career grand slam and he is the first player since Philadelphia’s Bryson Stott last year to hit a playoff grand slam for his first career slam. Through his first nine career Postseason games, Mark Vientos is batting .378 (14-for-37) with three homers, 11 RBI, two doubles, two walks, six runs scored, a .410 on-base percentage and a 1.086 OPS.
With 11 RBI already, Vientos has matched Daniel Murphy’s total from his historic playoff run in 2015. He’s one shy of the Mets record of 12, which Curtis Granderson (2015) and John Olerud (1999) share. Vientos’ six multi-hit games in these playoffs are tied for the most in a single playoffs in Mets history with Olerud (1999) and Todd Zeile (2000). Marty Barrett (1986), Troy Glaus (2002) and Marquis Grissom (1996) hold the single-postseason record with nine multi-hit games each.
We could see second baseman Jeff McNeil make his series debut in Game 3. He was inactive for the NLDS due to injury and Jose Iglesias started at second in the first two games.
Luis Severino
It’s Severino on the mound Wednesday. He was 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA this season with the Mets, his first and perhaps only with the club ahead of free agency. The right-hander has posted quality starts in each of his two postseason outings so far, allowing a combined seven runs (six earned) with a 10:2 K:BB over 12 innings.
The Mets sent Severino back to New York early in advance of his Game 3 start. He’ll be operating on nine days of rest, which was partially by design. Severino faded a bit down the stretch and into the playoffs, producing a 5.14 ERA over his last five starts, and he’s already thrown 104 2/3 more innings than he did a year ago. He hasn’t faced the Dodgers since June 2023, when they rocked him for seven runs over four innings.
^Why Bet on Los Angeles?
Both clubs finished the Mets’ 7-3 win in Game 2 with 10 runners left on base as both sides were able to work out of multiple jams in the game. It marked the first Postseason game in which both clubs left at least 10 runners on base since October 15, 2022 when Houston (14) and Seattle (10) played an 18-inning marathon.
In the top of the first on Monday, Dodgers opener Ryan Brasier was greeted with a leadoff homer by Francisco Lindor, snapping LA’s streak of 33 consecutive scoreless innings, which matched a Major League postseason record.
Max power. pic.twitter.com/EYVXgulsvd
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) October 14, 2024
Max Muncy
For the second straight game in this series, Muncy opened the scoring for Los Angeles, hitting a solo homer in the fifth inning. The blast marked his 12th career postseason homer, breaking a tie with Hall of Famer Duke Snider for the third-most in Dodgers’ postseason history. Muncy only trails Corey Seager and Justin Turner, who each clubbed 13 postseason homers in their Dodgers’ tenure.
Kiké Hernández
The Dodgers’ offense had plenty of opportunities to get back in the game Monday but couldn’t capitalize. Hernández came up in two big situations, but grounded into an inning-ending double play in the sixth and flied out with two on in the ninth. The Dodgers are still waiting for All-Star catcher Will Smith to show consistent signs of life at the plate this postseason. After going 0-for-4 in Game 2, Smith is now 2-for-23 in seven postseason games.
Since the LCS moved to its current seven-game format in 1985, the winner of the second game of the NLCS has advanced to the Fall Classic 23 times (59.0%). This is the 29th time that the NLCS has been even at a game apiece, regardless of series length (best-of-five or best-of-seven). Nine of the last 16 NLCS matchups, including this year, have been 1-1 after two games. In the seven-game era of the LCS (AL or NL) since 1985, 12 series have gone the distance after being tied 1-1. With the series shifting to Citi Field, it’s now a best-of-five series to determine who wins the NL pennant. In all best-of-seven series tied after two games, the team taking a 2-1 lead has won the series 69 of 100 times (69%).
“It’s going to be a dogfight,” said Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts. “They’re a good baseball team, but we are too. It’s going to be a long series. We expect it to be a long, tough series.”
Second baseman Gavin Lux left Sunday’s NLCS Game 1 with hip flexor tightness and didn’t play in Game 2 but wasn’t likely to start against the Mets lefty anyways. He might return Wednesday.
Walker Buehler
It’s right-hander Buehler on the mound Wednesday after going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA in 16 regular-season starts in another injury-shortened year. He pitched in Game 3 of the NLDS in San Diego and Buehler allowed six runs in five innings and took the loss against the Padres. Buehler gave up seven hits, walked one and struck out none. He was done in by a six-run second inning that started out with some cheap hits and ultimately was capped off by a Fernando Tatis Jr. two-run home run that gave the Padres a 6-1 advantage.
While this hasn’t been the season Buehler expected, the right-hander does like to perform in October. Even after that rough outing against the Padres, Buehler has a 3.40 ERA in 84 2/3 postseason innings.
“I don’t care what Walker’s numbers are — I will always bet on that guy in these types of situations,” Muncy said. “He’s the guy you want on the mound in a big situation. You just know that his heartbeat, when he gets out there, is not going to waver at all. I’ve seen him in multiple big games for us, and every time, he delivers.”
^Dodgers at Mets Info
When: Wednesday, 8:08 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Pitchers (away/home): Walker Buehler/Luis Severino
TV: Fox Sports 1
Stream/gameday audio: Fox Sports Live
The @Dodgers and @Mets head to Citi Field for #NLCS Game 3.
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2024
What can the Dodgers expect from Walker Buehler? Will the Mets put on a show in front of the home crowd? pic.twitter.com/hR0arm9FfC
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