Cleveland at Philadelphia Score Prediction & Expert Analysis

It’s a potential World Series preview on Friday night when the AL-best Cleveland Guardians visit the NL-best Philadelphia Phillies, with the Phils favored on the MLB odds as they also have the best home record in the majors.

Cleveland at Philadelphia: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Lines: Phillies -170, Guardians +150 (total 8)
Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Guardians 4

Cleveland Guardians Moneyline +141

Last Game Review

Minor disadvantage for Cleveland as while the Phillies were off, the Guardians finished a home series against Detroit. If this game gets to the ninth inning with the Guardians leading, it’s over.

All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase has 18 straight successful saves since his last blown on May 19. It’s the second-longest such streak of Clase’s career.

Overall, Clase’s 31 saves on the campaign rank second in the majors. He has a ridiculous 0.76 ERA and 0.65 WHIP on the year.

That ERA is the lowest among qualified relievers in MLB this season, and the lowest by a Cleveland pitcher through their first 47 games in club history.

Hunter Gaddis

The Fellow reliever has not allowed a run in 18.2 innings, the longest active streak by any MLB pitcher.

Gaddis’ 0.35 home ERA (1ER/25.2IP) ranks second in the majors. In the past 10 games, Cleveland’s bullpen ERA is 0.79.

The Guardians are 54-0 when leading after 8 innings this season, one of three teams to be undefeated in such situations.

All-Star Jose Ramirez has 20 RBI in the 8th inning-or-later this year, 2nd-most in the AL.

Rotation Problem

Cleveland has been in a bit of a funk for a while, as it is 9-14 since June 26 and has averaged 3.35 runs per game, the second-lowest mark in MLB over that span.

But the biggest issue that’s plagued the Guardians all season is their starting rotation.

The offense can only do so much if the starters can’t pitch beyond the fourth inning or if they give up too many runs for the lineup to be able to compete.

Ben Lively on the Mound

It’s righty Lively on the hill Friday, and the journeyman has been a huge surprise this year.

Lively (8-6) took the loss against the Padres last Sunday, allowing two runs on six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings while striking out two.

Ben gave up a two-out double to Kyle Higashioka that plated two runs in the second inning, but outside of that, he pitched well and stayed out of trouble.

He didn’t get many swings and misses, with just an 11 percent whiff rate and 25 percent CSW, but he kept the Padres off the barrel of the bat and avoided lots of damage.

It was his seventh straight start in which he gave up multiple runs, but he’s also pitched into the sixth inning in six straight starts.

The 32-year-old has a 3.57 ERA through 93.1 innings this season. Lively’s first two big-league seasons (2017-18) were spent with the Phillies.

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MyBookie MLB Betting Odds to Win Today

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -167

Team Stats

This starts a stretch of 22 straight games against clubs that are currently .500 or better.

The Phillies are 29-19 this season against clubs that are currently .500 or better, which includes a three-game sweep of the Dodgers at CBP earlier this month.

Philadelphia’s .604 winning percentage against clubs .500 or better is best in MLB.

Season Review

The Phillies have such a big lead in the NL East that they might be a little bored – which may explain why the club is just 2-4 out of the break and has lost both series in Pittsburgh and Minnesota.

Philadelphia was a 5-4 loser in the Twin Cities on Wednesday in that series finale, so the day off probably came at a great time.

The Phils were up 4-1 entering the bottom of the seventh. Max Kepler’s infield single drove in the winning run with one out in the ninth inning for the Twins.

It was Kepler’s 11th career walk-off plate appearance, tying Harmon Killebrew and Kirby Puckett for most in Twins’ history.

Trea Turner

All-Star shortstop Turner continued his torrid month for the Phillies, going 2-for-5 with a solo home run and a stolen base.

He swiped his 13th base of the season in the top of the first inning before taking David Festa deep in the fifth to tie the game.

The hamstring injury that cost Turner six weeks earlier this season appears to have sapped his stolen base production — the 31-year-old has just three steals since returning on June 17.

But in July, he’s batting .356 with 10 home runs, 22 RBI and 18 runs scored.

Overall, though, one of baseball’s best offenses has struggled for a bit.

The Phillies are 19-19 since they beat the Mets in London on June 8. It is expected that the Phillies will find a reliever before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

They might add a right-handed bat in the outfield, too.

Cristopher Sanchez on the Mound

It’s lefty Sanchez on the hill Friday. Sanchez (7-5, 2.97 ERA) took the loss last Saturday as the Phillies were downed 4-1 by the Pirates, giving up two runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings. He struck out two without walking a batter.

Sanchez threw 56 of 90 pitches for strikes as he fell just short of his 11th quality start of the season.

Cristopher has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, posting a 2.79 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 28:5 K:BB in 38.2 innings over that stretch. This will be his first career start vs. Cleveland.

The Phillies are 26-1 this season when a starting pitcher tosses at least 7.0 innings, and they have won 26 straight which is the longest streak in Phillies history and the second-longest streak in MLB history – the only club to win more than 26 straight games when a starter goes at least 7.0 innings was the Cardinals, who won 42 straight in 1942.

Bet Guardians at Phillies MLB Odds

When: Friday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Pitchers (away/home): Ben Lively/Cristopher Sanchez
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/ ^