How to Bet Red Sox vs Orioles MLB Spread & Game Analysis.

How to Bet Red Sox vs Orioles MLB Spread & Game Analysis

Written by on May 8, 2019

Part of the reason the Boston Red Sox are vastly underachieving has been the early struggles of ace Chris Sale. However, Sale comes off easily his best start of 2019 so it could be that Boston is about to take off. The Sox are favored on the MLB odds in their series finale against the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday.

Red Sox vs Orioles MLB Spread & Game Analysis

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Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox remain without second baseman Dustin Pedroia due to a knee injury. Pedroia is slated to start three days in a row from Tuesday-Thursday on his rehab assignment with Double-A Portland. It would stand to reason that it’ll be his last test before being activated, assuming all goes well. With the way Michael Chavis is playing, Pedroia’s role going forward is up in the air.

On Monday, the Sox placed LHP David Price on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to May 3, with left elbow tendinitis. Price dodged questions about how long the elbow had been sore, saying only that it’s “bothering” him right now. The good news is that he said the injury is “not even close” to as bad as the elbow issue he dealt with a couple of years ago that caused him to miss a large chunk of the season. He’s hopeful of missing just 1-2 starts.

Mookie Betts hit .200 with a .676 OPS in his first 19 games of the season (through 4/17), but he has since batted .387 with a 1.109 OPS (24-for-62, 9 XBH) since.

It’s lefty Chris Sale (1-5, 5.25) here. Sale is coming off his best outing of the season, Friday against the White Sox. Boston’s ace tossed six shutout innings against his former club, tying a season-high 10 strikeouts, walking one batter and allowing only three hits. It was Sale’s first victory since Game 1 of the 2018 ALDS vs. the Yankees.

Sale enters with an 11.0-inning scoreless streak. He has allowed two or fewer runs on five or fewer hits in each of his last 3 starts. In those games, has posted a 2.00 ERA and held opponents to a .188 AVG (18.0 IP, 4 ER, 12 H, 28 SO, 6 BB). He has struck out 28 batters in his last 3 starts (18.0 IP), after totaling 14 SO in his first 4 (18.0 IP). Sale also has thrown 70+ strikes in each of his last 3 outings (68.6% strikes in those games).

Red Sox starting pitchers own the AL’s lowest HR/9.0 IP ratio since 4/6 (0.89). Only Cubs starters have a lower HR/9.0 IP rate in that time (0.86).

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.97
  • Hits: 8.24
  • Walks: 4.05
  • Strike Outs: 7.95

Defense

  • Runs: 4.97
  • Hits: 8.16
  • Walks: 3.49
  • Strike Outs: 9.49

Why Bet on Baltimore?

Mychal Givens retired all four batters he faced for his fourth save Monday against the Red Sox. He’s now he’s earned saves in four straight appearances. Jonathan Villar hit a grand slam Monday to give the Orioles all of their runs in the win over Boston. It was Villar’s fourth homer of the year. He’s on pace for 19 homers and 32 steals.

Reliever Richard Bleier (shoulder) was set to begin a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday with High-A Frederick. If all goes well, the left-hander should be cleared to return to the Orioles’ bullpen sometime next week. Bleier has been on the injured list since April 11 because of tendinitis in his throwing shoulder.

Red Sox vs Orioles is going to be a close one.

DH Mark Trumbo (knee) has done some light throwing and running. But the veteran slugger hasn’t been cleared for any other baseball activities and is still working on building up strength in his surgically-repaired right knee. Trumbo is on the 60-day injured list and might not be ready to return when first eligible in late May.

It’s Andrew Cashner (4-1, 4.71) here. Cashner was charged with five runs (four earned) over four innings while taking a no-decision last Wednesday in a 7-6 loss to the White Sox in the nightcap of a doubleheader. He scattered six hits and two walks and struck out eight. The season-high strikeout total was about the only silver lining on an otherwise underwhelming night for Cashner.

Cashner has shaken up his pitch mix in his second season in Baltimore, abandoning his sinker for a four-seamer and incorporating a changeup much more frequently.

Team Stats

Offense
  • Runs: 4.11
  • Hits: 8.25
  • Walks: 2.67
  • Strike Outs: 8.39

Defense

  • Runs: 6.00
  • Hits: 9.33
  • Walks: 3.56
  • Strike Outs: 7.64

Red Sox vs Orioles MLB Betting Trends

  • Red Sox are 4-0 in Sale’s last 4 road starts vs. Orioles
  • Orioles are 1-4 in Cashner’s last 5 starts during game 3 of a series
  • Red Sox are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games against Baltimore
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 7 games this season
  • Orioles are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 5 games at home

Expert Final Score Prediction for Red Sox vs Orioles

Boston Red Sox 5 – Baltimore Orioles 2

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