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Very big series in the American League wild-card race starts Monday night as the Boston Red Sox visit the Kansas City Royals, who are favorites on the MLB odds for the opener behind right-hander Brady Singer.

Boston at Kansas City: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Lines: Royals -130, Red Sox +120 (total 9.5)
Score Prediction: Royals 5, Red Sox 4

Boston Red Sox Moneyline +127

The Red Sox completed their series in Texas on Sunday without outfielder Tyler O’Neill due to illness – he also missed Saturday’s game.

O’Neill is having a career year with his new club as he’s slashing .268/.357/.544 line with 22 home runs and a 143 OPS+. Injuries have plagued O’Neill throughout his career.

In his previous six years with the Cardinals, he was placed on the injured list a total of 11 different times.

Jarren Duran

Fellow outfielder and All-Star Duran appeared to tweak something on Saturday, but was in the starting lineup Sunday.

Don’t be surprised if Duran receives a day off soon, though, given that he hasn’t been rested since the All-Star break and doesn’t look to be at full health.

He and Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. are the only AL players to have started all of their team’s games in 2024.

Rafael Devers

All-Star third baseman Devers has 625 career RBIs, two shy of tying Ted Williams for 2nd most in club history at the age of 27 or younger.

Jim Rice holds the team mark with 669. The Red Sox have scored 5+ runs in 12 of their last 17 games and in 18 of their last 27.

Boston has scored 5+ runs in 56 games, 3rd most in MLB. N: The Red Sox have recorded 10+ hits in 11 of their last 14 games and in 15 of their last 21. Boston has recorded 10+ hits in 47 games, 2nd most in MLB.

Record

Boston ranks 2nd in the AL and 6th in the majors in stolen bases (103). David Hamilton ranks 3rd in the AL with 26 steals, while Duran ranks T-5th with 24. Duran also leads the majors with 13 triples. The last Red Sox player with more than 13 triples in a season was Rice in 1978 (15).

James Paxton on the Hill

It’s newly acquired lefty Paxton on the mound Monday. Paxton (8-3) took the loss last Tuesday against Seattle, allowing six runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk across 4.1 innings. He struck out five.

Paxton ran into trouble in the fifth inning and didn’t get much help defensively.

There were three errors behind him, and Paxton exited the contest with the bases loaded and one out, handing the ball off to Zack Kelly in what wound up being a five-run fifth inning.

Paxton induced 10 whiffs on 37 swings for a 27 percent whiff rate and 29 percent CSW. He allowed seven hard-hit baseballs but just two extra-base hits.

He did record his 1,000th career strikeout, becoming just the seventh Canadian-born pitcher in MLB to do so.

In his last five starts dating to his time with the Dodgers, Paxton has logged an 8.18 ERA with 20 strikeouts in 22 innings.

Paxton was traded to the Red Sox from Los Angeles on July 26. It’s Paxton’s second stint in his career with the Red Sox. He is 4-1 with a 2.57 ERA in nine career starts against the Royals. He hasn’t faced them in 2024.

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Kansas City Royals Moneyline -149

The Royals come off winning three of four over the weekend in Detroit – one of their more unlikely wins of the season was Sunday’s 3-2 result, as KC trailed 2-0 entering the ninth.

The team originally was planning to give second baseman Michael Massey and outfielders MJ Melendez and Kyle Isbel the day off, but all ended up entering via pinch-hitter, and Melendez hit a three-run bomb with two outs in the ninth for the win.

Royal’s Streak

The Royals have now homered in 10 consecutive games – during which they have hit 16 bombs — which is their longest streak since a 13-game run from May 2-14, 2023, during which they hit 23 homers. The franchise record is 15 straight games with a home run from April 6-22, 2001.

The victory completed a 6-1 road trip and back-to-back series wins for the first time since June 24-30 vs. Miami and Cleveland.

It also improved Kansas City to an AL-best 11-5 since the All-Star break, and has blown a lead in four of those six defeats.

Two of them came despite holding a lead after the 8th inning, and they’ve now lost five such games this season, tied for 3rd most in the Majors behind the Rockies (7) and Mets (6). Kansas City has 25 blown-lead losses this season, tied for 4th most in the American League.

The Royals already have seven more wins than all of last season overall, however.

Bobby Witt Jr.

All-Star shortstop Witt Jr. leads the Majors with a 7.7 fWAR ahead of Aaron Judge (7.4), which is the 4th-best single season fWAR by a position player in franchise history, trailing George Brett in 1980 (9.1), 1985 (8.3) and 1979 (8.3).

Witt is on pace for an 11.1 fWAR season, which would be 5th best for a player 24 or younger in Major League history, trailing Lou Gehrig (12.4 in 1927), Ted Williams (11.5 in 1942), Mickey Mantle (11.5 in 1956) & Jimmie Foxx (11.3 in 1932).

He leads MLB in hits, batting average and runs. He also leads the Majors with 47 multi-hit games (42.0%), which are nearly double his total of hitless games (24).

Top 10

Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez all rank in the Top 10 of the American League in RBIs and the Royals are the only club with three in the Top 10 and only team in the majors to have three players with at least 75 RBIs.

All three of Kansas City’s top RBI producers are on pace for at least 100 RBIs, which has been done only twice in franchise history, in 1999 (Carlos Beltrán, Jermaine Dye, Mike Sweeney) and 2000 (Dye, Joe Randa, Sweeney).

Brady Singer

It’s righty Singer on the mound here. Singer (8-6) picked up the win last Wednesday, giving up three runs on six hits over seven innings in a 10-3 rout of the White Sox.

He struck out four without walking a batter. Singer gave up three straight hits to lead off the bottom of the second inning, with all three Chicago runners eventually coming around to score, but otherwise Singer held the opposition in check as he collected his third straight win and fourth in his last five outings.

He became the first Royal to record 3 straight starts of at least 7.0 innings since Brad Keller from July 24-Aug. 4, 2019.

Singer, who turned 28 on Sunday, has allowed three runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts, posting a 2.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 43:15 K:BB through 54 innings over that stretch.

He was named the Royals’ Pitcher of the Month for July — his sixth career monthly honor — after going 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA (9 ER in 35.2 IP) over six starts.

Singer is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA (7 ER in 15.1 IP) in 3 career starts against the Red Sox and allowed 4 runs in a season-low 2.2 innings at Fenway Park on July 14.

Betting Red Sox at Royals MLB Odds

When: Monday, 8:10 PM ET
Where: Kauffman Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): James Paxton/Brady Singer
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/