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The red-hot Yankees return home from a very successful road trip on Tuesday to host Minnesota as the Twins will welcome back former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis from a long injured list stint. The Yanks are solid favorites on the MLB odds.

Minnesota at New York Yankees | 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Picks Yankees -170, Twins +150 (total 7.5)
Score Prediction Yankees 5, Twins 3

Minnesota Twins Moneyline +135

The Twins have won five of seven and off a 4-3 comeback win in Houston on Sunday to take two of three from the Astros. Jose Miranda hit a solo homer in the sixth inning and a tiebreaking RBI double in the eighth. Miranda collected his 10th multi-hit game of the season and has a season slash line of .280/.311/.469 with six homers, nine doubles, 20 RBI and 19 runs through 151 plate appearances.

All-Star closer Jhoan Duran tossed a clean ninth, striking out one to pick up his 10th save of the season. After allowing a total of six baserunners and three unearned runs over his last three appearances totaling 2.1 innings, Duran ran into no such trouble Sunday. Though he’s yet to blow a save since making his season debut April 30, Duran has not been as dominant with an 8.4 K/9 compared with rates of 11.8 and 12.1 over his first two big-league seasons.

Third baseman Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, has not played since getting injured on Opening Day but is expected to be activated and play Tuesday. Lewis has been Minnesota’s best hitter when healthy dating back to his 2022 debut. But injuries have marred Lewis’ career to date — he’s twice torn his right ACL and this quad strain. He is a .313/.369/.564 hitter (159 wRC+) in 282 MLB career plate appearances. He also hit four homers in 26 postseason playoff appearances last year (in addition to homering in his first at-bat of the 2024 regular season).

Much has changed since Lewis was injured, with the most significant development being that Miranda established himself as not only the interim everyday third baseman, but, ultimately, too valuable of a bat to send down upon Lewis’ return.

So to make room for Lewis, the club optioned infielder Edouard Julien to Triple-A St. Paul on Monday. Julien had been mired in quite the slump — slashing just .169/.274/.181 with zero homers, five RBI and a 36/12 K/BB ratio over 95 plate appearances over his last 32 games dating back to April 28. He started the season as the every-day second baseman and leadoff hitter.

It’s Bailey Ober (5-3) on the mound Tuesday. Ober (5-3) took the loss last Wednesday versus the Royals, allowing six runs on nine hits while striking out four and walking none over five innings. Ober gave up hard contact — Nelson Velazquez hit two home runs and Salvador Perez added a solo shot and an RBI double. It was the first time since his disastrous season debut that Ober allowed multiple homers, though he has yielded seven over his last six starts. He’s at a 4.89 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 58:12 K:BB through 57 innings over 11 starts this season.

Ober has allowed six homers in two starts against the Royals this season, and four homers in nine starts against everyone else. Ober has allowed 14 runs in 6 1/3 innings in those two starts against the Royals this season, and 17 runs in 50 2/3 innings against everyone else. Ober has a 7.71 ERA in nine career starts against the Royals, and a 3.36 ERA against everyone else.

“It’s the same thing for hitters,” catcher Ryan Jeffers said of Ober’s Kansas City struggles. “Hitters have teams that they struggle with more. Some pitching staffs just pitch you well. You can’t find a rhythm. You can’t track on to what, to how they’re calling the game to you. Maybe that’s the same way with pitchers.”

The Yankees are the only American League opponent that Ober has never faced. Since April 22, the Twins have gone 26-13, the third-best record in baseball since that date behind Philadelphia and the Yankees.

New York Yankees Moneyline -166

While it has nothing to do with this game, Tuesday is a big day for the Yankees as ace and 2023 AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole (elbow) will make his first Minor League rehab start for Double-A Somerset. Cole could throw approximately 50 pitches. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said that Cole is expected to need at least two Minor League rehab outings before he would be ready to make his season debut.

The Yankees, who lead the AL East, won their fifth game in a row Sunday, 7-5 in San Francisco to complete the sweep despite trailing 5-3 entering the ninth. Juan Soto homered twice, including a go-ahead drive in a four-run ninth inning against All-Star closer Camilo Doval. It was Soto’s third multi-homer performance as a Yankee, all coming over his last 15 games. During that stretch, he’s gone 22-for-57 (.386) with 12 extra-base hits and 19 RBI. Soto’s season slash line now sits at .322/.417/.614 through 61 games.

“That’s what he does. We’ve seen it all year long,” Aaron Judge said. “He comes up in big moments, against one of the best closers in the game, throwing it up to 102 miles an hour. I had a nice front-row seat for that one. That was impressive.”

Anthony Volpe hit an RBI triple and Giancarlo Stanton drove in a run with a ground-rule double against Doval in the ninth. Judge singled twice, walked twice and swiped a pair of bases. Judge singled off of Blake Snell in the opening inning and stole second base, but the Yankees were unable to cash him in. He also drew a walk during the Bombers’ rally in the ninth inning, swiped second base, took third on a throwing error and scored on an RBI double off the bat of Stanton. Judge has now reached base in 29 straight games and the AL MVP favorite is now slashing .288/.417/.658 with 21 homers, 47 RBI and four stolen bases.

Closer Clay Holmes slammed the door on the Giants in the ninth inning to earn his 17th save of the season. Holmes needed just 12 pitches (eight strikes) to retire Brett Wisely, Wilmer Flores and Matt Chapman in order to end it. The 31-year-old has been spectacular this season, compiling a 1.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a 27/8 K/BB ratio across 26 1/3 innings while nabbing 17 saves and a victory. He began the year without allowing an earned run through 20 innings before coughing up four against Seattle on May 20. Since then, he’s turned in 5.2 scoreless frames.

The Yankees have won 22 of 27 games after completing a 7-2 West Coast trip.

It’s rising young star Luis Gil (7-1, 1.99 ERA) on the mound Tuesday. He got the win last Wednesday at the Angels, allowing one run on two hits and two walks while striking out nine over eight frames. Gil surrendered just one hit over the first six innings before surrendering a solo home run to Logan O’Hoppe in the seventh. The right-hander produced 15 whiffs on the night while posting at least eight strikeouts for the third consecutive outing. Gil has now logged six quality starts in a row.

Gil was named the AL Pitcher of the Month for May after one of the greatest pitching months in franchise history, posting the seventh-lowest ERA (0.70) by a Yankees hurler in a calendar month (minimum 30 innings pitched) since earned runs became an official stat in both leagues in 1913. He went 6-0 with 44 strikeouts in six starts. Overall, he is just the 14th pitcher since 1901 under the age of 26 to have at least six consecutive starts of 6.0 innings while allowing no more than one run.

He leads qualified rookies this season in wins, strikeouts (79) and opponents’ batting average (.135); he ranks second in WHIP (0.95); third in ERA (1.99); and is tied for third in games started (11) and innings pitched (63.1).

“Am I fully 100 percent surprised? I’m not,” Gil said of his success. “The reason why is that it took a lot of dedication and a lot of work to get here. That’s something that I really wanted to do, to put myself in the best position possible coming in here. When you’re able to command pitches out there, really good things happen.”

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Bet Twins at Yankees MLB Odds

When: Tuesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Yankee Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Bailey Ober/Luis Gil
TV: TBS
Stream/gameday audio: TBS app

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You go, Juan Soto!

Congrats to @JuanSoto25_ on being named AL Player of the Week! 🙌 pic.twitter.com/0afxsiIKMd
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) June 3, 2024