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2024 NBA Cup Odds: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Picks and Expert Analysis

2024 NBA Cup Odds: Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Picks and Expert Analysis

Written by on November 26, 2024

Featured Sports Betting Odds, NBA News and Rumors

The NBA Cup competition resumes with five games, and the first game of a TNT doubleheader features the Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, who are short favorites on the NBA odds.

The Bucks would be in great shape to win the group with the minor upset.

Opening Lines Subject to Change: Heat -1.5 (total 221.5)
Expert Prediction: Heat 110, Bucks 108
 

Betting Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks won their season-high fourth straight game on Saturday, 125-119 over Charlotte. Milwaukee was 18 of 37 from beyond the arc, matching their season high in 3-pointers made. Giannis Antetokounmpo joined the 19,000-point club when he recorded his 12th of the game on a free throw about halfway through the second quarter. He is the 65th player all-time to reach that plateau. Antetokounmpo then passed former Bucks sharp-shooter Dale Ellis (19,004) for No. 64 on the all-time scoring list.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Antetokounmpo finished with a team-high 32 points along with 11 rebounds and six assists. The former MVP has a double-double in 14 of his 16 appearances while scoring at least 30 points on 10 occasions. Antetokounmpo’s 32.4 points per game would be a career high, and he’s also averaging 11.9 boards, 6.4 assists and 1.4 blocks a contest while shooting 60.8 percent from the floor. He has 16 straight games with at least 20 points while shooting a minimum of 50% from the field. That’s a career-high streak.

“I feel like going into the season, it was sloppy in the beginning,” Antetokounmpo said of his team’s overall play. “I don’t know if our confidence, if everybody’s was high — we were losing games. It’s OK. We have to figure things out and I think now as a team we’ve figured things out.”

Damian Lillard

Lillard added 31 points, four rebounds and four assists. The veteran point guard saw his streak of games with double-digit assists end at three, but Lillard compensated by reaching 30 points for the first time since Nov. 7. While a concussion cost him a few games earlier this month, Lillard has otherwise had a strong start to the season, averaging 25.2 points and 7.4 assists.

That the Bucks have won six of seven is an indication that Antetokounmpo and Lillard are feeding off each other. Since Nov. 1, the Bucks are allowing just 110.1 points per game (sixth in NBA) on 44.1% shooting (fourth) and it’s 110.9 defensive rating is the ninth-best in the league in that span. Offensively, the Bucks are shooting 40.2% from deep in November, which is third in the NBA, and their five games of at least 120 points this month are tied for fourth.

“I think (we’re) just kind of honestly are getting to the point where we’re tuning everybody else out,” Lillard said. “It’s just a lot of communication between the two of us, you know? It has nothing to do with people saying, ‘Oh, y’all need to do this or let’s try that.’ It’s like he sees what he sees. I see what I see. And we gotta use each other in that way, and I think it’s just leading to more times where when I’m having it, we’re putting people in position to where I’m throwing the ball to him.”

Brook Lopez

Lopez chipped in 13 points, eight rebounds and three blocks. Lopez has recorded at least one block, one steal and one three-pointer in seven straight games, averaging 17.0 points, 6.6 boards, 2,7 threes, 2.6 blocks, 2.0 steals and 1.9 assists over that stretch while shooting 53.7 percent from the floor and 41.3 percent (19-for-46) from beyond the arc.

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NBA Cup Odds provided by MyBookie

 

Betting Miami Heat

The Heat won their second straight game Sunday, 123-118 in OT over Dallas. Jimmy Butler’s dunk tied the game with 4.4 seconds left in regulation and the Heat unsuccessfully argued he was fouled by Dereck Lively on the play. Spencer Dinwiddie’s desperation 3-point try for Dallas rimmed out as time expired and to overtime they went. Butler was questionable with an illness but had a season-high 33 points along with nine rebounds and six assists. He has scored at least 30 points in back-to-back games. It’s the ninth time — including playoffs — that he’s had a multi-game streak of scoring at least 30 since joining the Heat.

Tyler Herro

Herro had 18 points, 11 rebounds and five assists but was just 1-for-10 from deep. He has connected on a 3FG in 48-straight regular season games, the third-longest streak in team history (Duncan Robinson 69 & 57). Bam Adebayo had 19 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. He is now just seven double-doubles away from tying Alonzo Mourning (205) for the second-most in Heat history.

Terry Rozier

Guard Rozier (right foot discomfort) was originally probable for Sunday but then was downgraded to out. Forward Haywood Highsmith fell ill during Sunday’s game and had to leave. He played 19 minutes and went scoreless with five rebounds, three assists, one steal, and two blocked shots.

With those two guys having issues, more minutes opened up for others. Alec Burks tied his season high with 15 points off the bench and Pelle Larsson added a career-high 14 off the bench. Burks is shooting a team-high 50 percent (14-of-28) from three-point range this season.

Rivalries to Consider

Miami will play eight games this month against teams that made the playoffs last season, tying for the most during a single month this season (January), with five of those eight contests coming on the road. So far the Heat have played seven of those eight, going 4-3 with wins against Minnesota, Indiana, Philadelphia and Dallas. Tonight against Milwaukee will mark the eighth and final playoff team this month.

After a shaky 3-5 start to the season that had the Heat ranked 19th in the NBA in defensive rating (allowing 114.6 points per 100 possessions) through its first eight games, the Heat’s defense has been among the best in the league since then. The Heat have posted the NBA’s sixth-best defensive rating (allowing 106.7 points per 100 possessions) over the last six games. Miami has gone 4-2 during this stretch to get back to .500,.

Erik Spoelstra

“It always ends up with being committed to doing really hard things,” Heat coach Spoelstra said when asked what’s behind the uptick in the team’s defensive metrics. “There’s no easy way about it. I don’t think anybody has figured out how to shortcut anything. It’s a mentality, no matter what the scheme is. There’s nothing that can mask just having to take a challenge as a group. You have to get connected with it.”

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How to Watch and Bet NBA Cup Odds

When: Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Kaseya Center
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT app

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Bucks vs Heat Series History

The Heat and Bucks meet for the first of four matchups this regular season. Last season, Milwaukee won the series, 2-1, but the Heat have won five of the last six against the Bucks in Miami. The Heat lead all-time 76-53 during the regular season and 41-22 at home.

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2021 Bucks vs Heat, Game 3 Playoffs
 

The Miami Heat were thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference playoff series in Milwaukee and are down 2-0 in the first round. The series shifts to Miami for Game 3 on Thursday with the Bucks slight favorites on the NBA odds.

How to Bet Bucks at Heat NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Thursday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: AmericanAirlines Arena
  • TV: TNT
  • Stream: TNT app
  • Radio:com

Why Bet on Milwaukee? | NBA Betting Analysis

The Bucks came out hitting everything in sight in Game 2 and never stopped, blowing the doors off visiting Miami 132-98. Their 10 3-point baskets matched an NBA record for the most in a quarter, and their 26-point lead matched the largest after the first quarter in postseason history.

The Bucks led 46-20 at the end of the opening period and 78-51 at the break, posting the highest first-half point total in their playoff history. They finished with 22 made 3-pointers, a new franchise playoff high and handed the Heat their 2nd worst playoff loss in franchise history.

In scoring 46 first-quarter points, the Bucks scored on 18 of the 20 possessions in which they didn’t commit a turnover. They shot 18-for-25 and rebounded five of their seven misses. Save their six turnovers, it was a complete offensive performance. After a turnover on the first play of the game, the Bucks scored 15 points on their next six possessions.

Giannis Antetokounmpo played well in Game 2 per usual with 31 points, 13 rebounds, six assists, three steals and one block. Giannis recorded his 5th career playoff game with 30 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in 35 minutes or less. The only other player with more than one such game all-time is LeBron James with two.

Jrue Holiday had 11 points, 15 assists and seven rebounds. Holiday set a new season high and career playoff high with 15 assists — the most in a playoff game by a Bucks player since T.J. Ford in 2006. Holiday is the fifth player in Bucks playoff history with a 15-assist game, joining Paul Pressey (3 times), Oscar Robertson (2 times), Ford and Jay Humphries (once each).

Bryn Forbes came off the bench with a playoff career-high 22 points, five boards and six triples (also a playoff career-high) in 20 minutes. The 27-year-old Forbes spent his first four seasons with San Antonio, but he signed with Milwaukee in free agency in November.

“If my man got the hot hand, I’m going to him,” Holiday said. “And he wasn’t missing, so at that point we were running everything to him just to — really just to see what happens.”

Khris Middleton added 17 points and Pat Connaughton had 15 while shooting 5 of 9 from beyond the arc. Over the first two games of the series, Milwaukee has posted a miniscule defensive rating of 100.4, locking up Miami both in the half court and in transition.

Why Bet on Miami? | NBA Betting Analysis

Miami simply needs more from star Jimmy Butler, who is shooting just 2-for-7 across 46.1 partial possessions when being guarded by Giannis Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP has surrendered just five points when guarding Butler throughout these first two games.

In Game 1, Butler shot 4-for-22, but at least had 10 free throw attempts in his 46 minutes. In Game 2, he had just four free throw attempts to go along with his 4-for-10 from the field. Butler had 17 drives on Monday, nine more than any other player on either team. But most of those drives ended in nothing productive.

Butler drew just one foul, scored just five points, and recorded just three assists on the 17 drives. Despite a sustained 20-plus-point deficit, Butler played well into the second half and finished as the only Heat player north of 30 minutes. Butler had the worst plus-minus (-32) of any half he’s played in his NBA career, regular season or playoffs.

Through Games 1 and 2, Butler is averaging 13.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game against the Bucks. He’s shooting 25% from the field, 22.2% from three-point range, and an equally bad 64.3% from the free throw line on 7.0 attempts.

One bright spot Monday was Dewayne Dedmon off the bench for a playoff career-high 19 points, chipping in nine rebounds in 21 minutes. Dedmon had never even eclipsed double figures in the playoffs before Game 1. Despite the great performance, the fact that Dedmon led the Heat in scoring should signal some worry for the team. Bam Adebayo had 16 points and just three rebounds. Goran Dragic added 18 points, but no one else did much. Tyler Herro, for example, had just four points.

“This is the playoffs,” Erik Spoelstra told reporters after the game. “They all count the same, whether you win in a possession game or like this. But we need to be better.”

Overcoming the odds will require a dramatic change in fortune, and it’ll have to start on the offensive end, where Miami is shooting a dismal 38.1 percent from the field in two games.

Game Trends

  • Bucks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
  • Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
  • Heat are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 Thursday games.

Expert NBA Prediction

Heat 114, Bucks 112

 
 

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