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Before getting into this blog, it’s important to understand that these rankings don’t mean you always back the real NFL favorites and always go against the true underdogs. Favorites and underdogs are designations, which teams offer points against the spread and which get points against the spread. It has nothing to do with which team you should back in a specific game. Check out the NFL Betting tiers.

Ranking NFL Teams into Betting Tiers From Real Favorites to True Underdogs

2022-23 NFL Regular Season

When: Sep. 8, 2022 – Jan. 8, 2023

Real NFL Favorites

Buffalo Bills

The Bills should be the favorite in almost every game this season. Even in their first game, a road tilt versus the defending champion Los Angeles Rams, the Bills are -1 chalks.

Kansas City Chiefs

Like Buffalo, Kansas City will go off the favorite in most of their games. As long as Patrick Mahomes plays, and Andy Reid coaches, the Chiefs will play competitively in every game. Oddsmakers know this. They also know there are a lot of Kansas City bettors who will dump on the Chiefs in almost every week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As soon as the Tom Brady announced that he wasn’t retiring, the Buccaneers became a chalk team. Tampa Bay doesn’t play as tough of a schedule, at least not as tough on paper, as some other teams on this list. The Bucs will attract plenty of spreads where they are the favorite.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay, even though Aaron Rodgers must familiarize himself with new receiving targets, should be a chalk in almost every game. The Packers are in the NFC North. The Vikings, Bears, and Lions just aren’t as good as Green Bay.

Second-Tier Favorites

Dallas Cowboys

Most consider Dallas the class of the NFC East. The Cowboys have a tough schedule. So they won’t be the chalk in every game. But they should be the favorite in many of their contests, including close to every division game.

Los Angeles Rams

This season, because of a couple of changes, the Rams are a second tier chalk. Los Angeles won’t be the favorite in every game. But like the -1 versus Buffalo, shows, when they’re not the chalk, they won’t get a ton of points, either.

Denver Broncos

New quarterback Russell Wilson will ensure the Broncos must lay points in most weeks. Denver has a good defense, great receivers, and a good offensive line. Wilson is one of the top quarterbacks in the league. So it’s difficult to envision oddsmakers and football handicappers not making the Broncos the chalk in most of their games.

Los Angeles Chargers

Like the Broncos, the AFC West rival Chargers have a great quarterback, good offensive line and good defensive line. The Bolts are also a hot pick to win the Super Bowl.

Any team that attracts action to win the Super Bowl is likely to go off the favorite in most of their regular season games.

Neither Favorites nor Underdogs

San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals
Indianapolis Colts
Philadelphia Eagles
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins
Las Vegas Raiders
New Orleans Saints
New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings
Washington Commanders
Pittsburgh Steelers

The above teams will be chalks in some of their NFL matchups, underdogs in others. The good news about this tier of teams is that if you become an expert regarding one, you should face moneyline opportunities that pay much more than they should.

The key will be to bet the moneyline when there’s a good possibility it will hit and either take the points, or lay the points in other games.

True Longshots – Everyone else

The Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, and Houston Texans will be true underdogs in most of their games.

Unless they play each other, the above teams will go off the dog. A couple of teams on the list, the Jaguars and Giants, could end up much better than many believe.

But early in the season, the Giants and Jags will be the underdog in almost every one of their NFL matchups.