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Star Winger Jake Guentzel Will Sign With Tampa Bay.

It appears the Tampa Bay Lightning already will be the big winners as they acquired All-Star forward Jake Guentzel from the Carolina Hurricanes for a draft pick, and were able to agree on a contract extension before he hit the free agent market.

Expert Prediction: Stamkos goes to Nashville

NHL free agency officially opens at noon ET on Monday

However, that likely means that long-time Lightning captain and future Hall of Famer will be playing elsewhere next season.

The 29-year-old Guentzel had 77 points (30 goals, 47 assists) in 67 regular-season games for the Hurricanes and Pittsburgh Penguins last season, including 25 points (eight goals, 17 assists) in 17 games after he was acquired in a trade with the Penguins on March 7.

Guentzel Stats

Guentzel had nine points (four goals, five assists) in 11 Stanley Cup Playoff games for Carolina.

He is a four-time 30-goal scorer who won the Stanley Cup with the Penguins in 2017.

After skating on Sidney Crosby’s wing for seven and a half seasons, Guentzel quickly found chemistry with Sebastian Aho on Carolina’s top line.

Twenty-five of Guentzel’s last 30 goals came in 5-on-5 play, which would improve a Lightning team that leaned on its power play too much last season.

Among the things that stand out most about Guentzel is the plus-25 ratio, which would give the Lightning the two-way forward that GM Julien BriseBois indicated he needed to make them a better team defensively.

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MyBookie NHL Odds to Win Next Season

What about the trade?

The Canes traded Guentzel to Tampa Bay for only a third-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft. Clearly, the Hurricanes thought they couldn’t re-sign Guentzel.

Carolina reportedly offered him an eight-year, $64 million deal to stay. He will get a seven-year deal with the Lightning, worth a higher average value.

He should slide in at the left wing on either of the Lightning’s top two lines, essentially replacing Stamkos.

Tampa Bay opened up some salary over the weekend by trading defense man Mikhail Sergachev to the Utah Hockey Club for defense man J.J. Moser and forward Conor Geekie, a seventh-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft and a second-round pick in 2025.

The Lightning also sent forward Tanner Jeannot to the Los Angeles Kings for a fourth-round pick this year and a second-round selection in 2025.

Steven Stamkos

Stamkos, 34, had 40 goals and 41 assists this past season, and the Cup-winning captain has 1,137 points in 1,082 career regular-season games.

He has been the face of the franchise since the Lightning picked him first in the 2008 draft, and he has served as captain since 2014, lifting the Cup twice as part of the organization’s back-to-back run in 2020 and ’21.

A lot of Lightning fans will be upset if the team lets him leave, but Guentzel is five-plus years younger and Tampa Bay can’t pay everyone.

BriseBois said he wanted to wait until after the season to see what the Tampa Bay roster needed, and then would offer Stamkos something within the financial confines of addressing those needs.

While Steven Stamkos was more than worth his $8.5-million cap hit over the last eight years in Tampa Bay — registering three 40-plus goal seasons, the latest of which coming last year — there’s no shying away from the fact that he’s on the back-nine of his career.

Stamkos is Tampa Bay’s all-time leader in games played, goals, points, even-strength goals (336), even-strength points (707), power-play goals (214), power-play points (422), overtime goals (13), game-winning goals (85) and shots (3,332).

It’s possible that Stamkos goes to Carolina (+1200 to win Cup) to replace Guentzel and would provide a huge boost to a Hurricane’s power play that faltered in the playoffs.

They converted on just 19.4 percent of their opportunities after posting the second-best power play in the regular season at 26.9 percent.

The Nashville Predators (+3500) and Los Angeles Kings (+2200) also could be major suitors for Stamkos.

The Boston Bruins could also get involved. Stamkos is from the Toronto area, but the Leafs (+1600) may not have cap room to pursue him.

2025 Stanley Cup Winner Odds for Top 5 Teams

Edmonton Oilers +860
Florida Panthers +900
Dallas Stars +990
New Jersey Devils +1100
Colorado Avalanche +1125

2 Stanley Cups, 16 seasons, 1082 games.

Thank you for the countless memories on and off the ice, Captain. 🫡 pic.twitter.com/NfqyxeQRZ4
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) July 1, 2024