MLB Betting Predictions: Updated Post-Trade Deadline

The MLB Trade Deadline came and went last Tuesday with no true blockbuster deals being completed as the White Sox held on to Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, and the Tigers kept AL Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal.

Here are three MLB betting predictions post-deadline.

White Sox Trade Stars This Summer

Most MLB experts panned new White Sox GM Chris Getz for his trade deadline performance as he didn’t get nearly as much in return as expected for starting pitcher Erick Fedde, outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Michael Kopech in a three-way deal with the Cardinals and Dodgers. Then Getz opted to keep ace Garrett Crochet and former All-Star outfielder Luis Robert. However, we fully expect both to be traded this off season.

Crochet, the AL leader in strikeouts and fWAR, was coveted by other teams heading into the deadline, but a trade for him seemingly became more complicated after he let it be known he wanted a contract extension in order to pitch in the postseason. He also expressed a desire not to pitch out of the bullpen, preferring a starter’s routine. Crochet still has two years left under team control this off season, and other teams don’t have to worry about an innings limit in 2025.

The Sox will shut Crochet down soon, as he has gone way past his career high in innings in his first full season as a starter. Robert was in a slump ahead of the deadline and could boost his value the final two months of the season. The White Sox are locks to finish with the worst record in MLB and on pace to break the 1962 Mets’ MLB modern-day record of 120 losses. I don’t think the White Sox will break that, however. It will be close.

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Braves Will Regret Not Adding Pitching

The Atlanta Braves of course lose ace Spencer Strider, the spring favorite for the 2024 NL Cy Young Award, very early on to a season-ending injury. The Braves would be in deep trouble this year if not for the off season trade for Chris Sale, who is the +110 favorite currently for the NL Cy Young, and converted reliever Reynaldo Lopez. Atlanta was in trade talks with the White Sox for Crochet but couldn’t get a deal done. That may prove costly because now Lopez is hurt.

The 30-year-old first-time All-Star is dealing with right forearm inflammation – which can lead to season-ending Tommy John surgery, and was placed on the 15-day IL on Monday. On July 28 in New York against the Mets, Lopez departed his start after three scoreless innings because of right forearm tightness. His MRI, done that night, came back clean — a huge relief for a Braves team that has suffered through horrible injury luck this season. When he exited the start against the Mets, Lopez had a 2.06 ERA — the best mark among qualified starters in baseball. He’s logged 104-2/3 innings, which are more than the 66 frames he threw last season. But for some reason, the team went a week without placing him on the injured list.

Lefty Max Fried recently returned from the IL after missing more than a month with forearm neuritis, but in his first start back he was knocked around Sunday by the Miami Marlins, who have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Lopez’s turn in the rotation would have been Tuesday, but that will be taken by Bryce Elder. Atlanta is still a -650 heavy favorite to get to the postseason, but it will be as a wild-card team.

Orioles’ Cowser Will Win AL Rookie of the Year

For much of this season, Gunnar Henderson was the leadoff hitter for the Baltimore Orioles, and he put up MVP-caliber numbers in that spot. However, not that long ago Manager Brandon Hyde opted to put rookie outfielder Colton Cowser in that spot, and Cowser has hit so well that he’s now the -140 favorite on the MLB odds for AL Rookie of the Year – which Henderson won in 2023. It’s very rare for one team to have back-to-back Rookie of the Year winners. It last happened in 2005 when Oakland pitcher Huston Street won it, a year after shortstop Bobby Crosby did.

Cowser has batted leadoff in each of the past seven games and gone 11-for-29 (.379) with one double, two home runs, five RBIs, two walks and seven runs scored. A conversation that Cowser had with Orioles co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller about “setting the table” helped prepare the 24-year-old outfielder for his new role.

“He has the ability to be a middle-of-the-lineup bat, but he also has an amazing skill set to be able to walk, to get a hit, to impact the score with one swing of the bat,” Fuller said. “Really just set the tone for the rest of the day, set the table for the guys behind you, be a perfect at-bat and find a way on base, and he’s been doing a great job.”

The O’s have hit 10 leadoff homers this year, the most in MLB; Henderson has eight of those, trailing only Philadelphia‘s Kyle Schwarber for the MLB lead, and tied for the second-most in a single season in Orioles history with Cedric Mullins (2021), trailing only Brady Anderson (12, 1996); Cowser and Jordan Westburg have the other leadoff blasts for the Birds in 2024. Cowser has hit safely in 17 straight games since July 19 and reached safely in 19 consecutive since July 13, both career highs.

The 17-game hitting streak has tied the Orioles’ rookie record, set by Trey Mancini in 2017. Cowser is batting .253 with 16 homers and 49 RBIs on the year, with a .795 OPS.

Top 10 MLB World Series Winner

LA Dodgers +320
NY Yankees +550
Philadelphia Phillies +590
Baltimore Orioles +650
Atlanta Braves +1075
Cleveland Guardians +1500
Minnesota Twins +1575
Houston Astros +1650
Seattle Mariners +2300
San Diego Padres +2400

Athletics Agree To Sell Their Share Of Coliseum Land https://t.co/12tbInotGD pic.twitter.com/YUMSUHJuIv
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) August 5, 2024