MLB Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Odds and Prediction for Friday’s Game

Could the AL East get all three wild card spots this season? It’s very possible and two teams battling for those spots, the Blue Jays and Red Sox, open a big series in Boston on Friday with the Sox favored on the MLB odds.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 17: Monday July 31 – Sunday August 6, 2023

How to Bet Toronto at Boston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Alek Manoah /James Paxton
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Red Sox -145, Blue Jays +125 (total 10)

Season Series

Last year, Toronto dominated Boston in historic fashion, 16-3. This season, the Red Sox lead 7-0. They have one more series next month north of the border.

Why Bet on Toronto?

The Jays are short-handed right now. All-Star shortstop Bo Bichette, the AL’s leading hitter, landed on the IL earlier this week. It’s not up to trade deadline acquisition Paul DeJong to replicate those numbers but DeJong was acquired to play solid defense, hit the occasional home run and keep the position afloat during Bichette’s absence.

All-Star closer Jordan Romano already was on the IL. The bullpen took another hit Thursday when Trevor Richards joined them on the IL neck inflammation. He made three starts in 39 appearances for the Blue Jays this season, posting a 2.98 ERA in 54 1/3 innings. He also has a career-best 26.7 percent strikeout minus walk ratio and has been one of the most consistent relievers in the Toronto bullpen. Bowden Francis was called up from Triple-A to take his place on the active roster.

The Jays have lost four of five but those were all at home so maybe a trip to Boston will shake things up. In Thursday’s 6-1 loss to Baltimore, Whit Merrifield had his 30th multi-hit game of the season. Over his last 24 games with a plate appearance, he has batted .347 (34-for-98) with 3 doubles, 7 homers, and 20 RBI for a .957 OPS with 12 multi-hit efforts.

Kevin Kiermaier singled and scored the Blue Jays’ only run of the day in the 6th inning on Thursday. He has 63 hits while batting 9th this season, the most in the American League. Toronto is 8-23 against the AL East and 52-27 against all other opponents this year.

Third baseman Matt Chapman ranks 2nd in MLB with a 59.2 hard-hit percentage (1st: Aaron Judge – 64.1), 6th in average exit velocity (94.0 MPH), and 13th in hard-hit balls (157). He leads the AL with 33 doubles.

It’s right-hander Alek Manoah (2-8, 5.87 ERA) on the mound Friday. Manoah did not factor into the decision last Saturday, allowing one run on four hits and three walks over 4.1 innings against the Angels. He struck out six. Manoah hit Shohei Ohtani with a pitch in the opening frame but managed to strike out the other three batters he faced to get out of the inning unscathed. The right-hander would then hurl three more scoreless innings before also beaning Taylor Ward with the bases loaded to drive home the first run for either team on the afternoon. Manoah would not make it out of the fifth inning, but with Saturday’s performance he’s now allowed one or fewer runs in two of his last four starts.

Manoah pitched at Fenway on May 3, allowing five runs over five innings. In seven career starts vs. Boston, he is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA (8 ER/42.0 IP) and a 1.02 WHIP.

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Why Bet on Boston?

The Sox are 41-34 this season against teams currently at or above .500, the 3rd-best record in MLB behind Atlanta and Baltimore. After this Blue Jays series, Boston’s next three against teams with a combined winning percentage below .400.

The Red Sox got Thursday after finishing a West Coast trip at 2-4 with a 6-3 loss in Seattle on Wednesday. Julio Rodríguez hit a tiebreaking RBI single and stole home in a four-run seventh inning to lead Seattle.

“It’s a tough one, but we’re going home and we’ve got a good stretch coming up,” manager Alex Cora said. “Two walk-off losses (in San Francisco) and two tough games here. We didn’t play great baseball.”

Red Sox third baseman Justin Turner was out of the lineup for the second straight day after suffering a heel contusion in Monday’s game. He is expected to play Friday, though. Turner has hit safely in 22 of his last 24 games since June 30. In that time, he’s batting .337 with a 1.004 OPS (31-for-92, 8 2B, 6 HR). Turner still leads the Sox in games played (102), runs scored (66), and hits (tied, 112), and ranks 2nd in HR (17), RBI (71), and walks (39).

The Sox are an AL-best 46-7 (.868) when scoring 5+ runs, the 3rd-best record in MLB. Boston is 37-8 (.822) when recording 10+ hits, having won each of their last 10.

It’s lefty James Paxton (6-2, 3.34) on the mound Friday. Paxton did not factor into the decision last Saturday, allowing one run on eight hits and two walks over five innings against the Giants. He struck out five. Though Paxton limited San Francisco to one run over five frames, the Red Sox offense was held scoreless until the ninth inning and knocked Paxton out of contention for his fourth win in five starts. Outside of an ugly six-run start against the Cubs, Paxton has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in five consecutive appearances dating back to June 24.

Paxton won three consecutive outings against the Blue Jays, allowing only one earned run across 18 2/3 innings and 17 strikeouts. Most recently, Paxton dominated Toronto for 7 2/3 scoreless innings at Rogers Centre on June 30 with two walks and seven strikeouts in a win.

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Expert Prediction

Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 4

AL East Standings

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