Year after year, online sportsbooks keep offering more NFL player props to choose from. The more options the books are offering, the more you are guaranteed that they are actually profitable. If a bet appears profitable for the sportsbook, the less attention pro bettors will pay to it. However, there are certain special circumstances when these types of bets certainly make sense.
Let us cut down to the chase and take a look at what makes NFL player props attractive or not and how to bet on them correctly.
Attractiveness Of The Bet
So, when are bets attractive?
When they are similar to a different outcome, but at a more lucrative price. In some instances, placing a bet on football props is usually a great opportunity for you to cash in a favorable price for a game that appears to be one-sided. For instance if you think that team A will beat team B, but you are not getting a good price on team A, you will be risking a lot compared to what you would win. If this is the case, then you can look for another way to express your opinion; say the passing, hence comes the passing prop. If in your opinion, the outcome of the game is closely related to the prop and you are confident about it, you can bet on it.
When comparing two players and one player has an obvious edge over the other. Odds makers always set up props to compare certain players, like the two starting QBs for instance. Most of the times, a game has certain special circumstances, thus making the comparison appear pretty much one-sided. When making your decision, the players might have similar scores or yardage, but there are certain factors that set them apart. An example is when one of the players has achieved this through a run of difficult games while his counterpart has done it thanks to weaker opponents. Therefore, you should not make your decision at first glance; rather, you should make an analysis to see which bet is smarter.
When certain circumstances increase the importance of a player. Injuries among other things are circumstances that influence public opinion and odds makers use these circumstances to set odds for the props. A change in line-up may not catch the attention of the public, but to a specific player, his performance in the game is usually impacted by these circumstances. For instance, if a player from the offense line is ruled out of a game, the running back will have difficulties, and the QB will have to make some hasty decisions that impact his performance negatively.
When the return you expect is lower than the wager with a significant amount.
When high profile players are involved. Everyone loves the big names in the NFL. This is a fact that is well known by sportsbooks, thus making it impossible to find a big name player with an attractive price, more so when the prop involves the player going head to head with another big name player. To be safe, you should assume that the bookmakers set the prices for the big player at a lower amount than they would ideally be.
When it’s a simple guess. You will always find props that are decoded and analyzed through a thoughtful process that makes you feel confident about your bet. However, other props are nothing but a guess. For instance, you might have to guess which receiver will feature for a team in a given day. Any NFL handicapper must understand that the more guessing there is, the less attractive a bet should be.
When the bets are too expensive. In some instances, a bet appears to make sense under the sun, such that you feel confident that a particular player has an advantage over another player on a particular match day. The bookmakers know when there is a clear preference in a bet, but they will set the prices accordingly. In such a scenario, you will find that you end up paying a lot for a bet that looks attractive at a glance, but in the long run, you will realize that it was a bad to risk so much for so little gain.