NFL Free Agency: Impact On Betting Odds And Future Markets

The NFL offseason is long, but the one positive thing you can say is that it is rarely ever boring. Generally speaking, coaches have a couple of weeks off at the end of the season, after which they need to get down to the business of building their team for the coming season.

While the NFL Draft gets a lot of attention, you also have free agents moving all over the place in what tends to be a crazy few months of moves and transactions.

We are still in the midst of the free agency period in the NFL betting, with some big-name players still out there looking for a new home.

Let’s take a closer look at free agency and the ripple effect it can have on teams across the league.

NFL Free Agency Betting Odds Explained

Every player in the league has signed a contract with the team they are currently playing for. No two contracts are the same, but what they do have in common is a start and end date.

When the end date arrives, teams and players have a decision to make. Do they want to renew, or is one or the other ready to move on?

If it’s the latter, a player will become a free agent the moment their existing contract expires. The type of free agent they are depends on a few different factors:

Restricted free agents

These are players who have been in the league for at least three years and who have a qualifying offer on the table.

The team that the player was originally with will have an opportunity to match any offer that said player receives from another team during free agency.

Unrestricted free agents

Players who have 4 or more years of league service are free to talk to any other team and can move without their current team receiving any type of compensation.

This year, the free agency period opened on March 12. The restricted free agent period is now over, with that market closing down on April 18.

There is still plenty of time for teams to get their hands on the available unrestricted free agents, as that market stays open until July 22.

It is these moves that tend to be the biggest in terms of wagering and other factors, so let’s get into that next.

NFL Free Agency Betting Odds 2025

Every single action that a team takes during the free agency period is going to have an impact on the betting odds across the board.

We have already discussed the impact that Tom Brady had on the Buccaneers’ odds when he signed up a few years back, but those moves also have an impact on other teams.

This is specifically true in divisional odds and win totals. Landing a veteran QB in the free agency period can mean the difference between winning the division and making the playoffs and missing out entirely.

Here are some other odds that might be affected by free agency:

Super Bowl Odds

This is the most obvious impact of a team landing a big-name free agent, although the change in Super Bowl betting odds will depend on the position filled.

It stands to reason that a QB or WR is going to move the needle more than an edge rusher.

Individual Player Stats

A wide receiver might have an over/under total of 700 receiving yards for the season based on the QBs on his roster right now.

If his team lands that big free agent QB, the expectations for that receiver will almost certainly rise.

It is worth remembering that free agent moves might not necessarily have the impact that we expected.

Aaron Rodgers, who we have discussed here quite a bit, did not do well with the Jets, so will his final decision this offseason have the impact we expected on the odds? Only time will tell.

How Free Agency Impacts Team Futures

If you watch the NFL Draft, you get a good idea of the immediate needs for every single team.

They can address some of those holes through the draft, but not every play they choose is going to be ready to go from day one, so they might need to dip into the free agent market.

A team that lands a key player can potentially go from pretender to contender, all of which has a ripple effect.

The Super Bowl odds, win total odds, and all manner of other wagering options can change dramatically based on a single signing.

Remember a few years ago when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were in the middle of the pack on the bookie board, only to become Super Bowl favorites when they signed Tom Brady as a free agent? That is the sort of impact we are talking about here.

Can You Wager on NFL Free Agency?

There are all kinds of NFL wagers available that have nothing to do with actual gameplay. These tend to fall into the prop category of wagers, where you can make wagers on all kinds of different things.

It is the NFL Draft that is getting all the prop love right now, but you can still wager on a few different free agency items.

The biggest one at the moment is the future of Aaron Rodgers. Is he going to retire, sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers, or perhaps surprise everyone by signing with some other team.

More About Free Agency in the NFL

If you are thinking about wagering on the potential destinations of the remaining free agents, you really need to pay attention to how the NFL Draft plays out this weekend.

Teams are going to do all they can to plug their perceived holes, but some are going to fall short.

For example, teams that wanted a QB that can start on day one might now be more inclined to dip their toe into the Aaron Rodgers sweepstakes if they feel they are still not looking good under center.

The same rules apply across all key positions, so keep an eye on the needs of every single team once the draft is over.

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