Dodgers vs Marlins: MLB Game Odds and Expert Analysis

It’s a possible National League playoff preview on Tuesday night as the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Miami Marlins, who are tied for the one of the league’s final wild card spots. LA is a heavy favorite on the MLB odds behind ace Clayton Kershaw.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis MyBookie Sportsbook

MLB Week 22: Monday September 4 – Sunday September 10, 2023

How to Bet Los Angeles at Miami MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Tuesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: loanDepot Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Clayton Kershaw/Jesus Luzardo
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Dodgers -145, Marlins +125 (total 7.5)

Why Bet on Los Angeles?

The Dodgers come off a rare series loss, dropping three of four at home over the weekend to Atlanta in a possible NLCS preview. LA still has such a big lead atop the NL West that it will clinch shortly and essentially is locked into the No. 2 seed in the NL playoffs.

Third baseman Max Muncy left Sunday’s series finale vs. the Braves with left shoulder soreness following a swing in the fifth inning and was replaced by Kiké Hernández. Manager Dave Roberts said the club will get a better assessment of the injury after Monday’s off-day, but it was not portrayed as serious. DH JD Martinez remains on the injured list and won’t return for this series.

Reigning NL Player of the Month for August Mookie Betts is batting .394 with RISP, which ranks third in the Major Leagues. The Dodgers are 40-22 when Betts drives in a run and 22-10 when he hits a home run this season. Freddie Freeman’s 51 doubles are a new Los Angeles Dodger record, surpassing Shawn Green’s 49 doubles in 2003. He is tied for second in the Majors with 181 hits and is tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most extra-base hits in the bigs with 78.

The rotation got some potentially horrible news with lefty Julio Urias arrested on felony domestic violence charges late Sunday. It was the second domestic violence arrest in the past four years for the soon-to-be-free-agent pitcher so he’s probably suspended for the rest of the year. In 2019, Urías was arrested on suspicion of domestic battery. While he was eventually not charged, he received a 20-game suspension under Major League Baseball’s domestic violence policy. No MLB player has been suspended twice for violating the policy since its institution in 2015.

It’s ace lefty Clayton Kershaw (12-4) on the mound. Kershaw gave up one run over five innings last Tuesday in a win over the Diamondbacks. Kershaw was staked to a six-run lead by the fourth inning and carried a shutout bid into the fifth inning before hanging a curveball that Diamondbacks rookie sensation Corbin Carroll tattooed for a solo homer. He finished with five strikeouts and also issued three free passes. Kershaw is at a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 120:29 K:BB through 112.1 innings over 20 starts this season. If the Dodgers keep giving him ample run support, he may continue to see shorter outings down the stretch to stay fresh for the postseason.

This will be his 15th career start vs. the Marlins and Kershaw is 7-5 with a 2.68 ERA (27 ER/90.2 IP IP) and 113 strikeouts against 24 walks. He last faced Miami on May 14, 2021, tossing six innings, giving up six hits, five runs, one home run and one walk while punching out 11 in the win.

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Why Bet on Miami?

The Marlins are tied for the NL’s final wild card spot. The Marlins capitalized on a prime opportunity when they needed it the most this weekend, procuring their first four-game sweep of the Nationals in franchise history by virtue of their 6-4 victory Sunday.

Miami star Luis Arraez’s quest to hit .400 faded in August, when he dropped from a .381 average to .349 by the end of what was also the Marlins’ worst month of the season. But the offense is clicking now with Arraez scorching hot again. He was a near-impossible out against the Nats out of the leadoff spot, going 10-for-18 (.556) with six runs scored in the four games.

The Marlins’ home run leader, Jorge Soler said on Saturday that he felt healthy enough to return to the lineup, but that did not occur for any of Miami’s four games against Washington as he was out of the lineup again Sunday for the fifth straight game; he last played Tuesday, and with Monday’s off-day, it could be a full week until he returns to game action due to his lingering hip tightness. Soler has 35 homers.

One player not hitting is former All-Star infielder Joey Wendle, who has a slash line of .139/.176/.178 since the break. That’s a .354 OPS in those 39 games for somebody whose OPS has never dipped below .514 during any other 39-game stretch of his career. It is also the lowest half-season OPS in Marlins history (min. 100 PA). Wendle’s batting average on balls in play has been halved, from .350 pre-ASB to .171 post-ASB.

It’s lefty Jesus Luzardo (9-8) on the mound Tuesday. Luzardo pitched six scoreless innings against Tampa Bay last Thursday, allowing one hit and two walks while striking out eight batters in a no-decision. Luzardo held the Rays hitless through 5.1 frames until Yandy Diaz snapped the spell with a sixth-inning double. Luzardo went through a rough stretch to end July and begin August, posting a 9.00 ERA and 2.24 WHIP over four starts (three losses) covering 17 innings. He bounced back nicely, however, ending August with two straight scoreless outings during which he allowed just three hits and posted a 15:3 K:BB over 12 frames.

Luzardo hasn’t faced the Dodgers in 2023 and is 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA at home in 16 starts.

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Expert Prediction

Dodgers 4, Marlins 2

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