Dodgers vs. Mets Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

No doubt the best game out of MLB’s All-Star break on Friday is from Queens in New York as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Mets in a possible NL playoff preview – although the Mets are a long way from a playoff team right now. There’s still time to turn it around from a wild card perspective. Here’s the analysis for your MLB betting odds to win in this game.

Dodgers vs. Mets | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet LA Dodgers at NY Mets MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Citi Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Julio Urias/Justin Verlander
TV: Apple TV+
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Mets -120, Dodgers +100 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on LA Dodgers?

The Dodgers (51-38) come out of the break on a four-game winning streak and tied for the NL West lead with Arizona – I fully expect LA to win the West again. The Dodgers are 10th in the NL in runs allowed after leading the league the past six seasons. But, they’re still on pace for 93 wins.

Ahead of the break, the team sent infielder Miguel Vargas to Triple A. The rookie has been slumping at the dish, but this still comes as a bit of a surprise because he opened the season as a starter. But Vargas has hit just .195/.305/.367 with seven homers, 32 RBI and three stolen bases in 304 plate appearances with the Dodgers. Super-utility man Chris Taylor has been on the shelf since late June due to a right knee bone bruise, but figures to be ready to return to Dodgers’ lineup Friday. Taylor probably will play most days at second now that Vargas is in Triple-A.

DH J.D. Martinez is having a fine season and started for the NL in Tuesday’s All-Star Game win. Martinez had a shot at MVP honors – it went to Colorado catcher Elias Diaz – as he had a single and double in the game and scored a run. Martinez became the first member of the Dodgers with two hits in an All-Star Game since Mike Piazza in 1996.

The Dodgers’ 149 home runs in the first half are the club’s most ever before the break and second in the majors behind Atlanta’s 169. The 2019 squad set the previous Dodgers record of 144. Mookie Betts ranks fourth in the National League, hitting .358 with runners in scoring position. Freddie Freeman ranks fifth with a .351 mark. His 114 hits are tied for a first half career-high (2018, 2022). It is the second straight year Freeman has collected over 100 hits in the first half. He has accomplished the feat four times in the last five full seasons.

It’s lefty Julio Urias on the mound Friday. Urias (6-5) allowed two runs on three hits and a walk while striking out eight over six innings to earn the win last Thursday over the Pirates. He leaned on his changeup more than usual, picking up five of his whiffs on it.

“His fastball always has good action to it, but the sharpness of the breaking ball and his changeup, it felt like it had really good action tonight and the hitters were off-balance,” said Max Muncy. “That, to me, shows me that his arm action’s back.”

Urias gave up five runs over three innings in his return from a hamstring injury, but he was much sharper in his second start back. The southpaw threw 59 of 88 pitches for strikes to pick up a quality start. He’s now at a 4.76 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 63:14 K:BB through 64.1 innings over 12 starts this season.

Urias hasn’t faced the Mets this year and has a 5.02 ERA with no decisions in 14.1 career innings against them. All-Star Pete Alonso is 1-for-6 off him. Starling Marte is 3-for-12 with a homer.

Bet Dodgers to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Why Bet on NY Mets?

The Mets are not catching the Braves for the NL East title, so it’s wild card or bust and if the team keeps struggling out of the second-half gate, it could be a seller at the trade deadline. New York did embark on a six-game winning streak right before the break but then lost its final two to fall to 42-48.

Outfielder Tommy Pham is day-to-day with right groin soreness. Pham was re-evaluated on Wednesday after an MRI on his right groin earlier this week didn’t reveal a strain. The 35-year-old, who has been one of New York’s main offensive catalysts over the last few weeks, isn’t expected to require a lengthy absence, and might be ready to return for Friday.

All-Star closer Edwin Diaz hasn’t played this season after getting hurt in the WBC. Diaz has been progressing well in his recovery from surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his right knee and has been throwing from 125-to-150 feet in recent days. If the Mets still have playoff hopes in September, Diaz might make it back.

New York did have a solid .726 OPS in the first half, the best by a Mets club since 2019. New York’s 114 first-half home runs are also its most before the break since 2019, when the club blasted 126 home runs prior to the All-Star break. The uptick in power has coincided with an increase in plate discipline, as New York’s 711 strikeouts from batters are the team’s fewest in a first half since 2017 (658).

Slugger Pete Alonso got off to an excellent start with an MLB-best 22 home runs through June 6. The next day, however, he was hit on the left wrist with a Charlie Morton pitch, sending him to the injured list for nearly two weeks. The All-Star first baseman hasn’t been the same since returning on June 18. He’s hit only four home runs in the 20 games since and is batting .143 in July. His .211 batting average this season would be a career-low.

It’s three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander on the mound Friday. Verlander (3-4) allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks while striking out two over six innings in a no-decision versus the Padres last Friday. Verlander has logged quality starts in four of his last seven outings. He struggled a bit early on Friday, but settled in and left with the game tied 3-3. The two strikeouts matched his season low, while he walked multiple batters for the sixth time in 12 starts. Verlander owns a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 57:19 K:BB over 70 innings.

Verlander will face the Dodgers for the first time with the Mets. He is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in three career regular-season starts against LA.

Bet Mets to Win Today
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Game

Expert Prediction

Mets 4, Dodgers 3

MLB Standings

NL East : Updated July 13th

Team	W	L	%	GB	STRK	HOME	AWAY
Braves	60	29	.674	–	L1	30-15	30-14
Marlins	53	39	.576	8.5	W2	30-18	23-21
Phillies	48	41	.539	12.0	L2	22-16	26-25
Mets	42	48	.467	18.5	L2	20-19	22-29
Nationals	36	54	.400	24.5	W2	15-32	21-22