NBA Picks to win Today! Warriors vs Heat Odds and Prediction

Butler returns to Miami for the first time since the contentious deal on Tuesday night, with the NBA picks a bit in flux because it’s not clear whether Warriors star Steph Curry will return from injury.

The Miami Heat traded All-Star guard Jimmy Butler to Golden State last month because Butler forced their hand, and the Heat have largely collapsed ever since.

Spread/Total Subject to Change: Warriors -5 (total 218.5)
MyBookie’s Expert Pick: Warriors 111, Heat 108

How to Bet Warriors vs Heat Odds, NBA Picks & TV Info

NBA Moneylines: Miami +165 / Golden State -204
When: Tuesday, 7:30 PM ET
Where: Kaseya Center
TV: TNT
Stream: Max

Butler has claimed his return to Miami will be no different from his first game against former teams such as Chicago, Philadelphia and Minnesota. “Yeah, I was traded from there, yada, yada, yada,” Butler said over the weekend. Yeah, it didn’t end the way that people wanted to, yada yada yada. But that’s so far behind me now. I don’t even think about it. I don’t pay attention to nothing except for the trajectory of this squad.”

Golden State has gone 16-4 since Butler’s debut on Feb. 8. Miami is just 5-17 since the Butler trade became official Feb. 7. This also will be the first time Andrew Wiggins and Kyle Anderson, two Warriors who were sent to Miami in the five-team trade involving Butler, will face their former team.

The game also has playoff ramifications. Golden State sits sixth in the West and tries to stay ahead of No. 7 Minnesota to avoid the play-in tournament. To participate in that, the Warriors are +115 and to reach the full-field West playoffs are -2000 with no at +900. Miami holds the last play-in spot in the East and won’t fall below that but could get higher. The Heat are -225 to reach the full playoffs.

Golden State is 37-35 all-time vs. Miami in the regular season, but Miami is 20-15 at home.

Will Curry Return for the Warriors?

Golden State star Steph Curry went down with a scary-looking injury last Thursday against Toronto but was diagnosed with only a bruised pelvis. He missed Saturday’s game in Atlanta, a 124-115 Warriors loss, to see a two-game winning streak snapped. Curry was not with the team there but did travel to join it in Miami, and it’s possible he will play, listed questionable (Check out the NBA picks).

Steph Curry's ankle injury puts his game status in doubt. #WarriorsUpdate
— Backshots Report (@BackshotsReport) March 25, 2025

Steve Kerr

Coach Kerr said before the loss to the Hawks that he was hopeful Curry would rejoin the team at some point during Golden State’s six-game trip. Draymond Green described the defeat at Atlanta as a “terrible loss” given the Warriors are trying to avoid the play-in round of the NBA playoffs with 11 regular-season games remaining.

Jimmy Butler led the Warriors in Saturday’s loss with 25 points, eight assists and four rebounds. Butler has scored over 20 points in three of his last four outings, and he should operate as the Warriors’ go-to player on offense as long as Curry remains sidelined. Butler is considered one of the NBA’s premier winners, and his arrival has coincided with a complete turnaround by Golden State. The Warriors were 25-26 before acquiring him. They are 16-4 since.

Butler says returning to Miami is not that big of a deal: “I got a job to do. People think that this game means more than any other game. We’re trying to win as many as we can. Just like they’re trying to win as many as they can. And it ain’t going to be no different. We’re going to go out there, and we’re going to hoop. And it’s not going to be Jimmy Butler trying to score 70. That’s not it. Like I tell y’all all the time, it’s all about winning.”

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Wiggins Off Best Game With Heat

Miami entered Sunday’s game in Charlotte on a 10-game losing streak, the franchise’s longest since 2008, but beat the lousy Hornets 122-105 behind a season-high 42 points from Andrew Wiggins, one of the pieces back from Golden State in the Jimmy Butler trade.

Wiggins, who was 16-for-21 from the field, had the most points by a Heat player this season — Herro had 40 three times — and finished five shy of his career high of 47, done Nov. 13, 2016, for Minnesota against the Lakers. Wiggins actually became the first player in Heat history with at least 42 points, six made 3-pointers, five assists, two steals and a block, He has now scored more than 20 points in seven of his first 13 games with the Heat. Leading scorer Tyler Herro was in question with a minor injury but had 29 points.

While the Heat have blown a double-digit lead in an NBA-high 20 losses this season, there was no late-game meltdown this time. After Miami pulled ahead by 24 points early in the fourth quarter, the Hornets cut the deficit to 13 with 6:17 to play but wouldn’t get any closer. It was Miami’s first win since defeating the Wizards on March 3.

Meanwhile, as much Butler and the Heat try to minimize the story lines surrounding Tuesday’s clash, the wounds are still fresh on both sides after their messy and public breakup.

Erik Spoelstra

“Obviously, there will be a lot of different feelings about it,” Heat coach Spoelstra said. “I probably won’t express all of them and that’s fair. But we had a great five-year run. We didn’t win the title, but only one team does. We had some great moments here. If we all get past that, that’s what you will always remember. It doesn’t matter what everybody feels right now.”

NBA Picks: Warriors vs Heat Game Trends

Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
Golden State, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games against Miami.
Warriors, are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State’s last 6 games when playing at Miami.
Heat are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
Miami are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami’s last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games when playing as the underdog.

Warriors vs Heat Expert Prediction

Since Jimmy Butler played in his first game for the Warriors on February 8 at Chicago, the Warriors have made 82.6 percent of their free throw attempts, tied third in the league in that span. Prior to Butler III joining the team, the Warriors ranked last in free throw percentage, shooting 72.0 percent. Additionally, the Warriors have gone from 27th in the NBA in free throw attempts per game (20.4) to tied second (25.3). Butler III is averaging 7.9 free throw attempts with the Warriors.

Golden State

The Warriors have played in 41 clutch games, second-most in the NBA behind Minnesota (43) – those are when the score is within five in the final five minutes of the game. Golden State has a 23-18 record in clutch games. Center Quinten Post leads all rookies with a 44.0 3-point shooting percentage. His 62 3-pointers are the most by any Warriors’ player in their first 33 games of their career.

The Warriors play just this one road game in a five-day span – the last time Golden State played one road game in a five -day span after All-Star Weekend was in 2018-19, when their lone road game (March 13 at Houston) was during March 11-15, 2019.

Miami

The Heat has held opponents to under 100 points 14 times this season, going 13-1 in those contests. Tyler Herro scored in double figures in a career-high 94-straight games, including both the regular season and postseason, the fifth-longest streak in franchise history. Herro is tied with Rony Seikaly (6,742) for seventh place on Miami’s all-time points list.

Miami tries for the season sweep as it won 114-98 in a big upset at Golden State on Jan. 7 behind 19 points and nine boards from Bam Adebayo. Butler was still with the Heat but suspended. Steph Curry scored 31 in the loss. Warriors 111, Heat 108.

PLAYOFF PICTURE

▪️ West 3-5 (DEN, LAL, MEM) all tied in loss column
▪️ MIL & DET (East #5 & #6) separated by 0.5 games

The #NBAPlayoffs presented by Google begin April 19! pic.twitter.com/cou5TOCm4j
— NBA (@NBA) March 25, 2025