Houston Texans Postseason Betting Analysis

Houston Texans Postseason Betting Analysis

 

At the start of every season, we have a list of teams that are likely to challenge for a Super Bowl, another list of teams with little to no hope of making the playoffs, and a large batch of teams that fall into something of a grey area. 2024 MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines | Houston Texans Postseason Betting Analysis

Very few teams actually live up, or down, to expectations, which is why we always see surprises on a weekly basis. One of the biggest surprises of the season was the Houston Texans, who started the year with their win total set at 6 ½ by the bookies. That we are still talking about them with Wild Card weekend upon us means that they have certainly exceeded their expectations, but is this a team content with just making the playoffs, or is it one ready to make some noise? Let’s take a closer look to consider in your NFL betting plans.

 

Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans Odds



 

Regular Season Recap

Part of the reason for fans and pundits questioning what the Texans might do this season boiled down to the fact that they would be rolling the dice with a rookie QB. We have seen that scenario go wrong so many times that it was difficult to be too excited about the prospect of CJ Stroud having a stellar year, but that is exactly what he did.

It certainly didn’t start that well, with Houston losing their opening 2 games of the season and struggling to score points, The light went on in Week 3, with a win over the Jags, which was followed up by a blowout win over the Steelers. The Texans then lost 2 of 3 before winning 3 in a row. From that point forward, it was win one lose one, but the good news was that the division remained tight, with no team seeming to want to win it. With wins over the Titans and Colts to close things out, Houston got to 10-7 and won the South.

 
Bet on the Texans to Win in the Wild Card Game against Browns

 
Houston Injuries
Robert WoodsWRQuestionable
Jonathan GreenardDEQuestionable
Noah BrownWRQuestionable
Jerry HughesDEQuestionable
Jimmie WardSInjured Reserve
Houston Last 5
Week 18 vs ColtsW23-19
Week 17 vs TitansW26-3
Week 16 @ BrownsL36-22
Week 15 vs TitansW19-16 OT
Week 14 vs JetsL30-6
 

Stats, Trends, and Odds

The fact that you have a rookie QB throwing for over 4100 yards and 23 TD tells you all you need to know about the upside of Stroud. He will almost certainly be the Rookie of the Year, but can he carry that over into the playoffs, which is a whole different ballgame. In terms of passing yards, this team is in the top 10, but they are not great at running the football, which could be a problem. They are just outside the top 10 in points scored and allowed per game.

The good news for the Texans is that they will start the playoffs at home, where they went 6-3 this season. The bad news is that they will open against a Browns team that was 1 of the 3 teams to take them down in their own building, although beating the same team twice in the same season is never an easy task.

The Texans will start the weekend as a 3-point underdog in their own building, so it’s no real surprise that the bookies have them as a real longshot to win the AFC, where they are currently listed at anywhere from +1600 to +2500. Those odds get a good deal longer when it comes to winning the Super Bowl, with Houston at +4000 and ahead of only 2 other teams. It has been a good season, but I still feel the Texans are a year or two away from seriously competing.

 

Houston’s Key Quarterbacks

CJ Stroud
#7 QB
YDS 4,108
TD 23
INT 5
QBR. 57.4
Active
Tim Boyle
#8 QB
YDS 360
TD 1
INT 4
QBR. 11.2
Active
 
Bet on the Texans to Win in the Wild Card Game against Browns

 

Odds to Win 2024 AFC Championship

AFC Team Odds
Baltimore Ravens +125
Buffalo Bills +265
Kansas City Chiefs +425
Miami Dolphins +650
Cleveland Browns +1000
Houston Texans +2000
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
AFC Lines to Win
 
 

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Houston Texans 2023 Season Betting Analysis | MyBookie NFL Betting Preview

Houston Texans | 22nd season as a member of the National Football League
Owner: Janice and D. Cal McNair
Head coach: DeMeco Ryans
Home field: NRG Stadium | Houston, Texas

 

What defines success for each NFL team in 2023 is different. For some, anything short of the Super Bowl is a failure. For the Texans, it’s all about the future. If when the 2023 regular season ends and it looks like DeMeco Ryans is the right choice for head coach, and C.J. Stroud was the right choice at quarterback, the year will be successful.

It’s about a new direction, a new hope, and a new Texans team that will be ready to return to the playoffs in 2024 and beyond.

Let’s see if Houston Texans have what it takes to back the betting lines to win the Super Bowl.

 

Texans Futures Bets

C.J. Stroud – Offensive Rookie of the Year (+750)
With the No. 2 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft the Texans took C.J. Stroud from Ohio State. The future of the franchise now rests on his shoulders, and fair or not, he will be compared as a quarterback to former Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Stroud is the fourth betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, behind running back Bijan Robinson (+250) and fellow QBs Bryce Young (+500) and Anthony Richardson (+600).

Will Anderson – Defensive Rookie of the Year (+350)
After selecting Stroud at No. 2, the Texans made a big trade to move up to No. 3 to select Alabama EDGE rusher Will Anderson.

A number of pundits think Houston gave up too much for Anderson, but at the same time bookmakers rank him as the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. If he does win the award and turn into the player we all think he will be, the trade will be worth it.

DeMeco Ryans – Coach of the Year (+2000)
At +2000 new Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is eighth on the betting list of potential Coach of the Year winners. Dan Campbell of the Lions is the current favorite.

Ryans is a former linebacker in Houston, and he is the former defensive coordinator for the 49ers. Last year he was named the NFL Assistant Coach of the Year.

 

Texans Win Total 6.5 (+110)

The under on the Houston Texans win total pays just -130. So why not take the over at +110. They are going to be a better team this year. They have a great rookie class coming in, tight end Dalton Schultz was a big add in free agency, and Jimmie Ward is a solid signing at safety.

Based on the 2023 win total projections, Houston has the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL.

 

Weekly Texans Betting

While the Texans finished last year a terrible 3-13-1, they were actually an average betting team, finishing 8-8-1 against the spread. On the road they were 5-3-1 ATS. They were the underdog in all 17 games.

It’s a new year, and a new betting landscape for Houston. In Week 1 they are big road dogs at the Ravens, but Week 2 at home in the battle of rookie QBs, the Texans are favorites against the Colts. They are also favorites in Week 9 against Tampa Bay and Week 11 at home against Arizona.

It’s only three of the 17 games, but it’s trending up from last season.

Super Bowl Pick | Bet Houston Texans to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Super Bowl


 

2023 Houston Texans Regular Season Schedule

Week Date Opponent Time
All times ET
1 Sep. 10 at Baltimore Ravens 1:00pm ET
2 Sep. 17 Indianapolis Colts 1:00pm ET
3 Sep. 24 at Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00pm ET
4 Oct. 1 Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00pm ET
5 Oct. 8 at Atlanta Falcons 1:00pm ET
6 Oct. 15 New Orleans Saints 1:00pm ET
7 Oct. 22 BYE WEEK
8 Oct. 29 at Carolina Panthers 1:00pm ET
9 Nov. 5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1:00pm ET
10 Nov. 12 at Cincinnati Bengals 1:00pm ET
11 Nov. 19 Arizona Cardinals 1:00pm ET
12 Nov. 26 Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00pm ET
13 Dec. 3 Denver Broncos 4:05pm ET
14 Dec. 10 at New York Jets 1:00pm ET
15 Dec. 17 at Tennessee Titans 1:00pm ET
16 Dec. 24 Cleveland Browns 1:00pm ET
17 Dec. 31 Tennessee Titans 1:00pm ET
18 Jan. 7 at Indianapolis Colts TBA ET

2024 Super Bowl Odds

Pre-Draft Super Bowl Odds
+21000

Current Super Bowl Odds
+17000

 

AFC South Win Totals

Houston Texans
6.5 (Over +110, Under -130)

Indianapolis Colts
6.5 (Over -140, Under +120)

Jacksonville Jaguars
10.5 (Over +125, Under -145)

Tennessee Titans
7.5 (Over +115, Under -130)


Bet Houston Texans to Win
MyBookie Betting Lines for the Super Bowl