Cubs vs Cardinals Score Prediction, Betting Odds, Picks

It’s a very light schedule around the majors on Thursday with five games, but one of MLB’s best rivalries is renewed from Wrigley Field as the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Chicago Cubs — and it’s a terrific pitching matchup between Sonny Gray and Shota Imanaga.

The Cubs opened as short favorites on the MLB odds, according to MyBookie Sportsbook.

MLB Lines: Cubs -110, Cardinals +100 (total 8)
Score Prediction: Cardinals 4, Cubs 3

St. Louis Cardinals Moneyline -102

Since Mother’s Day (May 12), St. Louis owns MLB’s third-best record behind Houston and Cleveland while being the only National League team with at least 40 wins since then. This set with the Cubs concludes the season series.

Trades

The Cardinals made a few trades ahead of the deadline, including landing reliever Shawn Armstrong on Tuesday from the Rays for outfielder Dylan Carlson – who once was one of the most touted prospects in the organization.

Armstrong was dominant in 2023 with a 1.38, 0.90 WHIP and 54:11 K:BB over 52 innings, but he has labored this season with 5.40 ERA in 38 appearances. He will work in middle relief.

The Cards also brought back outfielder Tommy Pham via trade with the White Sox and Pham hit a pinch-hit grand slam in his first plate appearance on Tuesday.

The former Cardinals 16th round draft pick in 2006 from Durango High School in Las Vegas went six years between home runs for the ‘Birds.

He became the first player in team history to hit a pinch-hit grand slam in his first game of the season with the Cardinals.

Sonny Gray on the Hill

It’s ace Gray (10-6) on the mound for the Cards on Thursday – although he has been a bit off lately.

Gray allowed five runs on seven hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision last Friday. He struck out seven during the extra-inning loss against Washington.

Gray struggled against the Nationals, giving up runs in three innings and maintaining a 6.67 ERA over five outings.

Despite this, he recorded a strong 35:5 K:BB ratio. In July, he allowed five home runs and hitters batted .330 against him, resulting in a 1.50 WHIP.

This rough patch raised Gray’s season ERA from 2.81 to 3.79 in 111.2 innings pitched.

Sonny’s second half last year carried him to a second-place finish in the American League Cy Young race while with the Twins, as he had a 2.29 ERA in 13 starts.

He’ll need to repeat that finish this year to help the Cardinals get a wild-card spot as they probably aren’t catching Milwaukee in the NL Central.

He has had a successful season against the Cubs, with a 1-1 record and 2.25 ERA in two starts.

His last game against them was on July 12 in St. Louis, where he allowed three runs on nine hits in a loss.

This will be Gray’s 14th career start against the Cubs and his fifth start at Wrigley Field.

Despite his success, his last appearance at Wrigley Field was in September 2021 as a member of the Reds.

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Chicago Cubs Moneyline -119

Cody Bellinger returned from the injured list for the Cubs, ending trade rumors. If he opts for free agency next year, potential suitors may stay away.

Bellinger’s current season doesn’t match his 2023 performance. Additionally, the Cubs acquired Isaac Paredes from the Rays, who debuted for Chicago.

Paredes made his first All-Star team, excelling in walk, whiff, and strikeout percentages in the major leagues.

The Rookie

Rookie outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong is 19-for-19 in stolen base attempts this season, tying Rex Hudler (1988) for the fourth-most consecutive successful stolen base attempts to begin a season by a rookie since 1951.

Next on the list: Tim Raines (20 in 1981), Quintin Berry (21 in 2012) and Mitchell Page (26 in 1977).

Shota Imanaga on the Hill

Cubs rookie lefty Imanaga had a mixed performance in his last game against Kansas City, allowing three runs on six hits over 5.2 innings.

Despite a strong start, he struggled in the sixth inning and saw his streak of quality starts come to an end.

Shota holds an impressive 2.95 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 111:17 K:BB ratio, with an 8-2 record in 19 appearances totaling 109.2 innings.

Imanaga has performed well overall, but in two losses he gave up seven and 10 runs.

His only game against the Cardinals on June 15 at Wrigley Field ended in a victory, with six strikeouts and one run allowed over seven innings.

He threw 103 pitches, limited St. Louis to four baserunners, induced 14 swinging strikes, mainly with his splitter/sweeper combo.

Mark Leiter Jr

The Cubs did weaken their bullpen on Tuesday when Leiter Jr. was traded on Tuesday to the Yankees.

Leiter had a 5.34 ERA in 32 outings before he was sidelined with a strained forearm June 23.

In seven games since his return, he had logged 7⅔ scoreless innings with 14 strikeouts to zero walks.

Since June 27, Chicago’s bullpen owns an MLB-best 1.20 ERA. Since allowing eight runs in a three-game stretch from June 11-17, Neris owns a 0.82 ERA.

Since his Cubs debut June 28, Jorge López has posted a 0.73 ERA in 10 games.

Bet On Cardinals at Cubs MLB Odds

When: Thursday, 8:05 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field
Pitchers (away/home): Sonny Gray/Shota Imanaga
TV: MLB Extra Innings, MLB Network
Stream/game day audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/

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Cubs vs Cardinals, May 24, 2024

One of the best rivalries in MLB is renewed for the first time this season on Friday night as the Chicago Cubs visit the St. Louis Cardinals with the Cubbies favored on the MLB odds behind NL Rookie of the Year favorite Shota Imanaga.

Can the Cardinals take second place to the Cubs in the National League Central Division?

MLB Picks Cubs -125, Cardinals +115 (total 8)
Expert Prediction Cubs 5, Cardinals 3

Chicago Cubs Betting Lines -156

The Cubs got back their starting infield of second baseman Nico Hoerner and shortstop Dansby Swanson earlier this week from injury. However, former closer Adbert Alzolay has been shut down from throwing for at least two weeks due to a right flexor strain that could lead to season-ending surgery.

The 29-year-old Alzolay was easily the Cubs’ top reliever in 2023, pacing the team with 22 saves and leading their qualified relievers with a 2.67 earned run average. The former top prospect punched out 26.5% of his opponents against a sharp 5.1% walk rate.

Alzolay got out to a much rockier start in 2024, logging a 4.67 ERA in 17 1/3 innings as his strikeout and walk rates swung dramatically in the wrong direction (17.3% and 8%, respectively). His sinker lost a full mile per hour from last year (95.3 mph to 94.3 mph), and his four-seamer is down just over a half mile as well, checking in at 94.7 mph in ’24 after sitting 95.3 mph in ’23.

It’s ace lefty and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Shota Imanaga (5-0) on the hill. Imanaga came away with a no-decision in last Saturday’s 1-0 win over the Pirates, scattering four hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings. He struck out seven but was saddled with a no-decision as the Cubs were also shut down by Bailey Falter.

The 30-year-old Imanaga generated 22 swinging strikes among his 88 pitches, and he now sports a 0.84 ERA — the lowest mark in history through a pitcher’s first nine career MLB starts. Imanaga will also take a 0.91 WHIP and 58:9 K:BB through 53.2 innings into Friday.

Should Imanaga’s 0.84 ERA be sustained, it would be nearly 80 percent lower than the league average after adjusting for park effects. Only Chet Brewer (1947) and Robert Keyes (1944) would have lower ERAs relative to their leagues in baseball history. Imanaga’s 58 strikeouts through his first nine starts is tied for 28th in MLB history, and only 18 pitchers have issued fewer walks than Imanaga (nine) through nine starts (minimum 50 innings pitched).

One major reason for the success has been his fastball, which has been the most effective in the majors. Imanaga’s four-seam fastball has saved 13 runs this season. No other four-seamer has saved more than nine. Yet his average fastball velocity is just 92.0 mph, about 2 mph slower than average .

“If I’m being honest, I’m not really too interested in my own stats or any historic value,” Imanaga said recently through the team interpreter. “But just knowing that there are so many good pitchers that came before me is a good learning experience.”

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Lines +117

Small advantage for the Cardinals in that they were off on Thursday while the Cubs had to finish a home series vs. Atlanta. The Cards impressively swept three games at home to start this week against a very good Baltimore team. The finale was 5-4 on Wednesday as Brendan Donovan doubled home two runs and scored the go-ahead run on a throwing error.

Rookie shortstop Masyn Winn extended his hitting streak to 13 games with a two-out double in the fifth inning Wednesday. Winn hit his second homer of the season in the seventh. He has the 4th-longest active hit streak in Major League Baseball and the 2nd-longest by a Cardinal behind Willson Contreras (14) this season. St. Louis has homered in a season-high 10 straight games, its longest streak since a 12-game run in 2022.

It was the first series sweep this season for the Cardinals, who have won eight of their last 10 games. The Orioles had gone 106 consecutive regular-season series without being swept, a span of more than two years. Baltimore had just eclipsed the 1903-05 New York Giants for the third-longest such streak in MLB history.

“It’s been incredible,” Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol, who was ejected in the bottom of the third inning of the second game. “We’ve had a lot of guys who are stepping up. It’s fun to watch.”

St. Louis remains without former All-Star catcher Contreras due to a fractured forearm suffered early this month against the Mets. He’s expected to miss another six weeks or so. In addition to his improved framing behind the plate, Contreras had been one of the team’s best hitters with a slash line of .280/.398/.551. That’s elite production for any hitter, let alone one who mans the catcher position. Ivan Herrera has been the primary catcher since the injury.

It’s veteran righty Miles Mikolas on the hill here. Mikolas (3-5) allowed one run on two hits and a walk while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision versus the Red Sox last Saturday. Mikolas threw just 79 pitches (54 strikes) as it’s likely that manager Oliver Marmol didn’t want Mikolas to go through the order a third time in a close game. The lone run on Mikolas’ line was a solo home run by Rafael Devers in the fourth inning.

His performance against the Red Sox showed signs of potential stabilization, especially considering his ability to limit hits and runs in the outing. Mikolas has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his outings this season, but he’s given up five or more runs in his other four starts. He’s at a 5.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 39:11 K:BB through 53 innings overall.

Bet Cubs at Cardinals MLB Odds

When: Friday, 8:15 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium
Pitchers (away/home): Shota Imanaga/Miles Mikolas
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/