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A huge series regarding the National League playoff race begins on Friday from Philadelphia when the NL East-leading Phillies host the wild-card hopeful New York Mets, with the Phils as solid favorites on the MLB odds behind Aaron Nola.

NY Mets at Philadelphia: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

Opening MLB Lines Subject to Change: Phillies -159, Mets +134 (total 8.5)
Expert Prediction: Phillies 5, Mets 4

New York Mets +134

The Mets (80-66) currently hold down the NL’s final wild-card spot. They come off a very unlikely win Wednesday in Toronto, 6-2, considering the Mets entered the ninth down 1-0 and being no-hit by Bowden Francis. Francisco Lindor broke up that no-hit bid with a tying homer leading off the ninth inning, and Francisco Alvarez added a three-run shot as New York scored six times in its last at-bat.

Francisco got ahead of Lindor 0-2 before the four-time All-Star drilled a 92 mph fastball 398 feet to right field for his 31st home run. The homer came on Francis’ 111th pitch, only the second time he’s thrown more than 100.

"It was only big because we ended up winning."

Francisco Lindor caught up with @SteveGelbs to talk about his clutch 9th-inning home run and the Mets' win over the Blue Jays! pic.twitter.com/eOxCmxf883
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 11, 2024

Francisco Lindor

While Lindor has had a tremendous season overall, he’d been slumping a bit coming into Wednesday, going just 1-for-14 in his previous four contests. Overall, he is slashing .268/.340/.492 with 31 homers, 85 RBI, 102 runs scored and 27 stolen bases. Lindor ranks fifth in the majors and leads the NL with a 7.2 fWAR this season. Those are NL MVP-type numbers, although Lindor won’t win it. The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani will.

New York’s six runs were the most ninth-inning runs scored by a team who did not have any hits through eight innings in the expansion era (since 1961). It was the fifth time in franchise history that the Mets won a game after being no-hit through eight innings, with the last time coming on July 31, 1983, in a 1-0 win over the Pirates in 12 innings.

Edwin Diaz

The closer had a one-pitch save Wednesday, so he’ll be ready Friday. After Ryne Stanek allowed a run on back-to-back two-out singles in the ninth, Diaz came in to face Nathan Lukes, and he was retired on the first pitch. It was the eighth straight scoreless appearance from Diaz — he’s allowed just two hits and a walk while striking out 14 over 7.1 innings in that span. Since the All-Star break, the Mets bullpen has posted a 3.22 ERA, the fourth-lowest mark in the National League in that span.

Jose Quintana

It’s lefty on the hill Friday. Quintana (8-9) picked up the win last Saturday, allowing five hits and two walks over 6.2 scoreless innings in a 4-0 victory over Cincinnati. He struck out six. Quintana delivered his 10th quality start of the season on 100 pitches (60 strikes), while the win was the 100th of Quintana’s career. He became the first Colombian-born pitcher to accomplish the feat and is the 19th active player to reach the milestone. It was the fifth time this season that Quintana has pitched at least six scoreless innings.

“Sometimes you have tough times, but I always get my confidence up,” Quintana said. “I know I’ll find a way. I know how I do it and I always try to do the best. Outings like today, it was amazing how all my stuff worked. I think I controlled the zone and got all my pitches in the zone most of the time. I think that gives me a chance to win.”

Quintana has bounced back from a rough stretch in August to post a 0.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 12:7 K:BB over his last three starts and 18 innings, and he has a chance at his first season with double-digit wins since 2019. The 35-year-old has 4.09 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 118/59 K/BB ratio across 152 innings this year.

He is 0-2 with a 3.94 ERA in 11 career appearances vs. the Phillies. He is 0-0 against them this year with a 5.00 ERA in two appearances spanning nine innings.

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Philadelphia Phillies -159

Philadelphia (88-58) has an eight-game lead over the Mets in the NL East with 16 games to play. The Phils could clinch their first division title sometime next week, especially if they play well against the Mets this weekend.

“Nothing is done yet,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “Until they put whatever they put next to your club — the ‘e’ or the ‘b’ or whatever it is [to show a clinch on the standings page] — until they put that there, nothing’s done. So we’ve got to keep going.”

The Phillies also are trying to beat out the LA Dodgers and Milwaukee for the NL’s best record. Philadelphia completed a home three-game sweep of Tampa Bay with a 3-2 win on Wednesday despite outfielder Kyle Schwarber sitting out with elbow soreness. He should be OK for Friday. On Tuesday, Schwarber hit his 14th leadoff home run of the season, setting the MLB single-season record. He had been tied with Alfonso Soriano (13 for the 2003 Yankees).

JT Realmuto

Realmuto, one of the best catchers in the league, exited in the fourth inning of the Phils’ 16-2 win over Miami last Friday, two innings after he fouled a pitch off his left knee. Realmuto hasn’t played since but is expected to start Friday. All-Star third baseman Alec Bohm is eligible to be activated off the IL on Friday but is not expected to be. Bohm injured his left hand while swinging the bat on Aug. 29 against the Braves. The Phillies first thought Bohm would be back in the lineup last weekend against the Marlins, but Bohm’s recovery has taken longer than expected. Bohm, however, believes he will be back in plenty of time to be sharp at the plate for the postseason.

“I feel pretty comfortable with how it’s progressing,” Bohm said. “I can tell it’s getting better each day. It’s just getting over that hump of being able to swing aggressively with two hands. At this point in the year, I’d rather take a couple extra days and not have to deal with it the rest of the year than put Band-Aids on it all year and grind through the end of the year. I can tell it’s getting better each day.”

Wednesday’s win was Philadelphia’s 50th at Citizens Bank Park this season, the third time in the modern era (since 1900) the Phillies reached the mark in their first 74 games or fewer at their home ballpark, joining the 2011 club (72 games) and 1977 team (64 games).

Aaron Nola

It’s righty on the mound Friday. Nola (12-7) took the loss last Saturday, giving up five runs (four earned) on nine hits and two walks over 4.2 innings as the Phillies fell 9-5 to the Marlins. He struck out five. A two-run homer by Connor Norby in the first inning and a solo shot by Jonah Bride in the fifth book ended Nola’s shortest outing since June 13.

Nola has only one win in 10 starts since the All-Star break, posting a 3.45 ERA, 1.50 WHIP and 51:18 K:BB through 57.1 innings over that stretch, and the 31-year-old could be running out of steam as the regular season draws to a close. The 31-year-old has a 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 167/45 K/BB ratio across 177 innings overall.

Nola is 10-9 with a 3.21 ERA in 27 career appearances vs. the Mets. He has faced them once this year, throwing a complete-game four-hit shutout in New York on May 14. Nola threw 73 of 109 pitches for strikes in his sixth career complete game and first since a five-hit shutout against Cincinnati in August 2022. After giving up a bloop double and a single in the ninth, Nola retired Francisco Lindor on a routine flyball with runners at the corners to end it.

“He executed. He moved the ball very well. His curveball was working,” Mets star Francisco Lindor said

Mets at Phillies Info

When: Friday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Pitchers (away/home): Jose Quintana/Aaron Nola
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+; https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/