MLB Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds and Prediction for Monday’s Game

A big series in the AL East, easily the best division in baseball, begins on Monday night as the first-place Baltimore Orioles visit the third-place Toronto Blue Jays to open a four-game set. The Jays are favored on the MLB odds for Game 1.

Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 17: Monday July 31 – Sunday August 6, 2023

How to Bet Baltimore at Toronto MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Monday, 7:07 PM ET
Where: Rogers Centre
Probable pitchers (away/home): Kyle Gibson/Chris Bassitt
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Blue Jays -140, Orioles +130 (total 9)

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles have one major disadvantage in that they had to play Sunday night against the Yankees and then travel to Toronto. Teams that play on Sunday nights tend to lose on Mondays this season. Baltimore is 5-1 vs. Toronto this year, however.

The Orioles have now gone 73 consecutive series without being swept. That is the most consecutive series of at least two decisions (no ties) without getting swept in Orioles history (since 1954). It is the sixth-longest such streak in MLB history, trailing the 1942-44 St. Louis Cardinals (124), 1906-09 Chicago Cubs (115), 1903-05 New York Mets (105), 1922-24 New York Yankees (83), and 1904-1906 Philadelphia Athletics (74).

The Orioles have two winning streaks of at least seven games this year; Atlanta (4x), San Francisco (2x), and Tampa Bay (2x) are the only other teams with multiple win streaks of at least seven games this season.

Baltimore remains without one of its best all-around offensive players in outfielder Cedric Mullins. The 28-year-old has been sidelined for nearly two weeks with a groin injury but recently advanced to running. It’s not clear whether Mullins will require a rehab assignment before returning, but Orioles general manager Mike Elias expects Mullins to be with the big club for a “large part of August.”

It’s veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson on the mound Monday. Gibson did not factor into the decision Tuesday, allowing two runs on four hits over six innings against the Phillies. He struck out five. Gison has logged quality starts in three of his last four outings after struggling to a 6.84 ERA in June. Overall, Gibson is 9-6 this season with a 4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 103:40 K:BB across 22 starts (127 innings).

He pitched in Toronto on May 19 and allowed one run in seven innings to snap a three-start losing streak at the time. Gibson gave up five hits, walked two and struck out five.

“Against a dude like Gibson, you’ve got to get him in the middle of the plate,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “He was living on the edges.”

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Why Bet on Toronto?

Toronto is without All-Star closer Jordan Romano, who landed on the 15-day injured list with lower back inflammation on Saturday, throwing a wrench into a key stretch of the team’s schedule that includes Tuesday’s Trade Deadline. Romano has pitched to a 2.79 ERA this season, his 28 saves putting him in a tie for third in MLB entering Saturday. It even looked like he’d have a shot at Duane Ward’s club record of 45 saves in 1993. Yimi García, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson likely will share the closing role for now.

The Blue Jay bullpen ranks 4th in the Majors this year in ERA (3.67), 4th in K/9 (10.02), 4th in BB/9 (3.05), 7th in WHIP (1.23), and 9th in AVG (.236).

The Jays had a chance to sweep the Angels on Sunday but lost 3-2 in 10 innings to end a three-game winning streak. Still, Toronto’s 21 series wins before August are a franchise record (19 in 1993 and 1999).

Toronto batters rank 3rd in the AL in home AVG (.264), 3rd in home OBP (.336), 6th in home SLG (.420), and 6th in home OPS (.755). The pitching staff ranks 1st among MLB teams with 3.29 home ERA, while sitting 2nd in the AL with a .220 home opponents’ average and 3rd with a 1.17 home WHIP.

It’s right-hander Chris Bassitt on the mound Monday. Bassitt (10-5) allowed two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision versus the Dodgers last Tuesday. Bassitt hadn’t walked multiple batters in any of his first four outings in July, though his six strikeouts were his most in a start this month. He left the game in line for the win, but the Blue Jays’ bullpen couldn’t maintain the lead. Bassitt hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last six appearances, and he’s at a 3.91 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 118:41 K:BB through 126.2 innings this season.

Bassitt faced the Orioles on June 13 and gave up 8 runs over 3.0 innings (11H, BB, 5K). Over 5 career starts against Baltimore, he has gone 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA (15 ER/29.2 IP) and 32 strikeouts.

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Expert Prediction

Blue Jays 5, Orioles 4

AL East: Updated July 31th

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