MLB Playoffs Odds: Who's In, Who's Out from Postseason

Major League Baseball’s All-Star break is here, although it’s a misnomer to say that it’s the halfway point of the regular season as we are well past that as teams have played nearly 100 of their 162 games.

But history tells us that the six teams currently sitting in a playoff spot in each league are likely to make it come October. Let’s break it down.

American League Betting Odds

Baltimore holds a one-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL East and it’s all but a lock that both make the postseason with one obviously as a Wild-Card team.

The Yankees are -135 East favorites with the Orioles at +115.

They played quite the wild game on Sunday as the Orioles avoided a rare home sweep with a 6-5 comeback win.

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland leads the AL Central by 4.5 games over Minnesota and has the AL’s best record by a half-game over Baltimore. The Guardians are -185 favorites in the Central and we fully expect them to win that.

Their .611 winning percentage is their best at the break since 1999. Steven Kwan leads the majors with a .352 average.

That’s the highest average by a qualified Guardians hitter at the break since Roberto Alomar hit .358 in 2001.

Josh Naylor’s 22 home runs are already a career high. The Guardians already have 109 homers this season. They had just 124 all of last year.

Cleveland also has probably the best bullpen in the majors with an MLB-best 2.62 ERA. Closer Emmanuel Clase has converted 16 straight save opportunities.

His 0.81 ERA is the lowest by any Cleveland pitcher during the season’s first half since ERA became official in 1913 (min. 40 innings).

Seattle Mariners

In the AL West, Seattle leads Houston by a game and defending World Series champion Texas but five as the Mariners really limped into the break.

They are +110 to win the division, Houston +100 and Texas +850. Seattle is the only AL team to never reach the World Series.

NY Yankees

The Yankees lead the AL Wild-Card standings with Minnesota second and surging Boston holding down the final spot. Definitely bet the Red Sox on Sundays.

They beat Baltimore 5-4 on Sunday to improve to 15-1 on that day this season.

Boston is only 4 1/2 games back in the AL East after staring at a 14-game deficit exactly a month ago.

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National League Betting Odds

While every division race is still open in the American League that doesn’t appear to be the case in the National League.

The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in baseball and the biggest division lead as well, up 8.5 games in the NL East and -525 favorites to win it.

The Phillies won a franchise-record 62 games before the All-Star break. They have a rotation with an MLB-best 3.22 ERA and 11.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs.

The defense is eighth with 11 Outs Above Average. Before the July 30 Trade Deadline, the Phillies could use a right-handed-hitting outfielder, though they could use a late-inning reliever.

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have a seven-game lead in the NL West and are -1800 to win that again. They will.

The Dodgers have that lead despite having a lot of key guys on the injured list, including early-season NL MVP favorite Mookie Betts and three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, who has yet to debut this season.

Kershaw and All-Star pitcher Tyler Glasnow will return shortly after the break along with outfielder Jason Heyward. Betts, third baseman Max Muncy and rookie pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto likely will be back in August.

Despite the challenges, the Dodgers enter the All-Star break with over 50 wins for the 10th consecutive season — easily the longest such stretch in MLB — and with at least five players selected to the All-Star Game for the fifth straight year.

Milwaukee Brewers

The only division race in the NL is Milwaukee leading the Central by 4.5 games over St. Louis with the Brewers at -295 and Cardinals +475.

Fifty-two players have already been active in at least one game for Milwaukee, with 32 of them throwing a pitch, including 16 different starting pitchers — one starter shy of the franchise record set by the inaugural 1969 Seattle Pilots team.

The Brewers are one of three teams — with fellow division-leaders in the Phillies and Guardians — yet to lose more than three games in a row.

Cardinals & Mets

Atlanta, St. Louis and the New York Mets currently hold down the Wild-Card spots.

The Mets really struggled early but have been one of the best teams in the majors since about late may as New York on May 29 was 11 games under .500 at 22-33 and languishing in fourth place in the National League East.

Over their last 40 games, going back to May 30, the Mets are 27-13. Even though they had their five-game winning streak snapped on Sunday, New York has the most wins, and best winning percentage (.675), of any team in baseball over that time.

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