Rangers vs. Red Sox Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

One of the best pitchers in the American League of late has been Red Sox 24-year-old Bryan Bello as he is becoming the team’s ace with the injury to Chris Sale. Bello is on the mound Wednesday but a short home underdog on the MLB odds against Texas and its ace Jon Gray.

Rangers vs. Red Sox | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Texas at Boston MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:10 PM ET
Where: Fenway Park
Probable pitchers (away/home): Jon Gray/Brayan Bello
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Rangers -115, Red Sox -105 (total 9)

Why Bet on Texas?

Texas has been alone or tied atop the AL East for 95 of the season’s first 95 days (exception: 4/8). Last season, the Rangers didn’t reach 50 wins on the season until Aug. 13. They already have 50 this year and Saturday marked the earliest date for the Rangers to reach 50 wins in a season since 6/27/16 (50-27).

The Rangers are better than they have been in years and are going all-in for the playoffs, recently acquiring former All-Star reliever Aroldis Chapman from Kansas City for 25-year-old lefty Cole Ragans and 17-year-old outfielder Roni Cabrera. The 35-year-old Chapman was an All-Star as recently as 2021 with the Yankees but really isn’t that guy any longer. The Royals mainly used Chapman in the seventh and eighth innings when they were either tied or had a lead of one to three runs, conditions that accounted for 24 of his 31 appearances.

Chapman had pitched well, posting a 2.45 ERA. He didn’t allow a single home run, that after allowing 1.26 per nine in 2021–22, and he struck out 43.4% of hitters, his highest rate since 2018 (excluding his 11.2-inning “season” in 2020) and the second highest of any reliever with at least 20 innings this season behind the Orioles’ Félix Bautista.

Another reliever, John King, was called up Tuesday from Triple-A after starting pitcher Andrew Heaney went on the paternity list. First-time All-Star catcher Jonah Heim got Tuesday off but should be back in there Wednesday. Heim already has a career-high 56 RBIs, the second-most ever by a Texas catcher prior to the All-Star break behind Ivan Rodriguez’s 80 in 1999. Heim is one of six Rangers named to the AL All-Star team along with infielders Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Josh Jung, outfielder Adolis Garcia and starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi. The six All-Stars are the most the Rangers have had at an All-Star Game since they sent eight in 2012.

It’s right-hander Jon Gray (6-4) on the mound Wednesday. Gray allowed five runs on seven hits and two walks over six innings last Friday, striking out four and taking a loss against Houston. Gray gave up one run through four frames before the Astros plated four total runs in the fifth and sixth innings. After a stretch of six straight outings allowing fewer than two runs, he’s been charged with 12 runs over 13.1 frames in his last three appearances. The 31-year-old still owns a solid 3.21 ERA with a 73:27 K:BB through 15 starts.

Gray has taken losses in 3 of his last 4 starts (0-3) and has allowed 12 R-ER in his last 3 starts (13.1 IP) to spike his season ERA from 2.32 to 3.21, still 10th-lowest among A.L. qualifier. Despite his recent struggles, Gray has still gone 5-3, 2.56 ERA (16 ER/56.1 IP) over his last 9 starts (beg. 5/8) to lower his season ERA from 4.40.

This season, Gray has seen far better results in 7 starts on the road (4-1, 1.99 ERA) than in 8 starts at home (2-3, 4.27 ERA). His lone career outing vs. Boston was a victory in 2016 while with Colorado. Gray allowed two earned over 7.1 innings at Fenway Park.

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Why Bet on Boston?

The Red Sox have played 59 games against teams that entered today with a record of .500 or better, the second-most in the majors. After Thursday, 8 of their next 11 series (7/7-8/17) are against teams that entered today with a sub-.500 record. The Red Sox are 5-5 against AL West teams this season and 30-13 since the beginning of 2022, the best record of any AL team over the last 2 seasons.

Boston had just one player named to the 2023 All-Star Game: Closer Kenley Jansen. He is 17-for-20 in save opportunities (13-for-13 on the road, 4-for-7 at home) and has converted each of his last 8 save opportunities. Jansen owns a 1.08 ERA (2 ER/16.2 IP) on the road, vs. a 6.75 ERA (9 ER/12.0 IP) at home.

Slugging outfielder/DH Adam Duvall was not in the starting lineup for Tuesday’s game versus the Rangers. Duvall has been on the bench for three consecutive games when the opposition starts a right-hander, making one start against a lefty over that stretch (and going 0-for-5 with four strikeouts). He’s hitting only .154/.247/.262 with a 36 percent strikeout rate since returning from the injured list and could be falling into a short-side platoon role in center field with Jarren Duran.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Tuesday that infielder Yu Chang (wrist) is likely to be activated from the injured list later this week. Cora added that Chang will be the team’s primary shortstop when he returns from late-April surgery to repair a fractured left hamate bone. The 27-year-old was slashing just .136/.174/.341 through 47 plate appearances prior to the injury.

It’s young right-hander Brayan Bello (5-5, 3.08 ERA) on the mound Wednesday. Bello (5-5) took the loss against Miami last Thursday, allowing one run on two hits and one walk while striking out five batters over seven innings Bello pitched a gem, getting through seven innings without allowing a hit before yielding a pair of singles to begin the eighth. Those hits resulted in his exit, and one of the runners came around to score, which was enough to saddle Bello with the loss in a game during which Boston failed to score. He allowed just one run in each of his past three appearances and has compiled five consecutive quality starts. During the latter stretch, he’s registered a 2.14 ERA and 26:8 K:BB over 33.2 frames.

Bello hasn’t allowed a homer in his last 39.2 IP, the 4th longest active streak among starting pitchers in the majors. He has tossed 6.0+ innings in each of his last 5 starts (7.0+ in 3 of his last 4). In his MLB career, opponents are 22-for-125 (.176) with 0 HR against his changeup (13-for-68 with 28 SO in 2023).

This will be Bello’s first career start vs. Texas.

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Game Trends

• Rangers are 11-3 in their last 14 during game 2 of a series.
• Rangers are 23-48 in their last 71 vs. American League East.
• Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 during game 2 of a series.
• Red Sox are 1-5 in their last 6 Wednesday games.
• Rangers are 10-25 in the last 35 meetings.

Expert Prediction

Red Sox 4, Rangers 3

MLB Standings

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away

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