NFL ATS Week 17 Betting Picks: Expert Bets to Watch

As the NFL regular season approaches its final stretch, NFL ATS Week 17 betting picks are crucial for savvy bettors looking to capitalize on late-season drama and playoff implications. With teams jockeying for position and motivations running high, Week 17 presents a variety of opportunities to bet against the spread (ATS) and find value in what can be some of the most unpredictable games of the year.

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2024 NFL season | 104th season of National Football League in the United States
Week 17: Wednesday, December 25th – Monday, December 30th, 2024

Betting ATS Picks in the Sixteenth Week of the Season

As the NFL regular season nears its conclusion, Week 17 offers plenty of opportunities for bettors to find value against the spread (ATS).

With playoff implications and late-season motivations at play, these games can be some of the trickiest to handicap.

Below, we break down the best ATS bets for each game, offering analysis and picks for Week 17.

Chiefs vs. Steelers Pick

Wednesday, December 25th, 2024

The Chiefs head into this matchup with some significant injury concerns, including Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Jack Cochrane.

Meanwhile, the Steelers look poised to welcome back George Pickens, adding a much-needed boost to their offense.

Despite the Chiefs’ 14-1 record, their metrics suggest they’ve been riding a wave of late-game heroics rather than dominance.

Against a disciplined Steelers team, that strategy may falter.

Playing on the road in a short week, on Christmas, adds another layer of difficulty for Kansas City.

Pittsburgh, well-coached and effective at home, is primed to cover in this spot.

Take the Steelers and the points.

NFL ATS Picks: Steelers +3 (-110)

Ravens vs. Texans Pick

Wednesday, December 25th, 2024

Both teams are battling wide receiver issues heading into this game.

The Ravens may be without Zay Flowers, while the Texans are down Tank Dell and possibly John Metchie III.

Combined with strong defensive performances recently—Baltimore ranks fourth in opponent EPA per play and Houston fifth—this game is shaping up to be a defensive battle.

The Ravens’ and Texans‘ defenses will likely suppress scoring opportunities, especially given the offensive injuries.

With a total set at 46.5, the UNDER appears to be the best play in this matchup.

Look for a low scoring Xmas game!

NFL ATS Picks: UNDER 46.5 (-105)

Seahawks vs. Bears Pick

Thursday, December 26th, 2024

The Seahawks are simply the better team in this matchup.

The Bears’ defense, which showed promise early in the NFL season, has fallen apart since Week 11, ranking 30th in both opponent EPA per play and success rate.

Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense remains a top unit.

Offensively, the Bears lack consistency and face a Seahawks team with multiple paths to victory.

Seattle’s balanced attack should easily handle Chicago, making this one of the more confident ATS picks this week.

NFL ATS Picks: Seahawks -3.5 (-110)

Chargers vs. Patriots Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

The Chargers have endured a tough stretch of games but now get a reprieve against a struggling Patriots team.

New England’s red zone offense is among the worst in the league, and they face the league’s best red zone defense in Los Angeles.

The Chargers also hold a clear edge on third-down efficiency, which should allow them to control the game.

With the Patriots‘ offensive struggles and the Chargers’ superior talent on both sides of the ball, this matchup sets up for a comfortable Los Angeles victory.

NFL ATS Picks: Chargers -4 (-110)

Broncos vs. Bengals Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

While it’s usually risky to bet the UNDER in a Bengals game, this matchup offers a strong case for it.

Denver’s defense excels against the pass, ranking first in opponent dropback EPA, while Cincinnati faces a tough test against the Broncos‘ pass rush.

On the other side, Denver’s offense has struggled on the road, averaging significantly fewer points and yards compared to their home performances.

With both defenses likely to limit scoring opportunities, the UNDER at 50.0 presents solid value.

NFL ATS Picks: UNDER 50 (-110)

Cardinals vs. Rams Pick

Saturday, December 28th, 2024

Kyler Murray’s struggles in December continue, and with the Cardinals eliminated from playoff contention, motivation could be an issue.

Adding to their woes, Arizona may be without its top two running backs, leaving their offense severely undermanned against a Rams team that thrives in December.

The Rams, playing with pride and momentum, should comfortably cover the spread against a depleted and demoralized Cardinals squad.

NFL ATS Picks: Rams -5.5 (-115)

Jets vs. Bills Pick

Sunday, December 29th, 2024

The Bills enter this game with the league’s hottest offense and face a Jets defense that has been woeful since Week 10.

Buffalo’s ability to attack both on the ground and through the air makes them a difficult matchup for New York, which has struggled to contain either.

While there’s some risk of Buffalo easing off if their playoff position is locked, their talent and form should still be enough to cover the spread.

NFL ATS Picks: Bills -9.5 (-115)

Lions vs. 49ers Pick

Sunday, December 29th, 2024

The Lions’ defense continues to struggle with injuries, making them vulnerable to a 49ers offense led by Brock Purdy.

Detroit’s offense, however, remains one of the most explosive in the league, capable of scoring against anyone.

This game has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, and the OVER is the best play to capitalize on both teams’ strengths and weaknesses.

NFL ATS Picks: OVER 51 (-110)

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Here's the schedule for Week 17 of the 2024-25 NFL Season! pic.twitter.com/LyyzGG7qp5
— Trip (@tripnfl) December 17, 2024

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How does it work?

What is ATS Betting? Let’s Find Out

ATS Betting stands for Against the Spread Betting, which is one of the most popular ways to bet on sports, especially in football and basketball.

In ATS betting, you’re not simply betting on which team will win or lose the game, but rather, how a team will perform relative to the spread (a point margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two teams).

Here’s how ATS betting works:

Point Spread: The point spread is a number set by oddsmakers to determine how much one team is favored over the other. For example, if the New England Patriots are playing the Miami Dolphins, and the point spread is Patriots -7, the Patriots must win by more than 7 points for a bet on the Patriots to cover the spread.
Betting the Favorite (Minus the Spread): If you’re betting on the favorite, the team you’re betting on must win by more than the set number of points for your bet to be successful. In the example above, if the Patriots are -7, they need to win by 8 points or more.
Betting the Underdog (Plus the Spread): If you’re betting on the underdog, your bet wins if the underdog either wins the game outright or loses by fewer points than the spread. So, if you bet on the Dolphins +7, you win the bet if they lose by 6 points or fewer, or if they win the game outright.

Example:

New York Giants (-3) vs. Dallas Cowboys (+3):
- If you bet on the Giants, they must win by 4 points or more for your bet to be successful.
- If you bet on the Cowboys, they either need to win the game outright or lose by 2 points or fewer for your bet to win.

ATS Betting Terminology:

Covering the Spread:
This means that the team has performed as expected against the spread (e.g., a favorite winning by enough points, or an underdog keeping it close).
Failing to Cover the Spread:
This means the team did not meet the expectations set by the point spread (e.g., a favorite winning but not by enough, or an underdog losing by too much).

Why Do Bettors Love ATS Betting?

More Balanced Betting:
ATS betting adds more excitement to games that may otherwise be lopsided. Even if a team is a heavy favorite, betting against the spread gives bettors something to root for.
Better Value on Underdogs:
ATS betting allows underdogs to have value even if they don’t win outright. For example, if a team loses by just a few points, they might still “cover” the spread.
Strategic Betting:
ATS betting requires more thought and analysis compared to straight-up betting. Bettors analyze not just how good the teams are, but also factors like injuries, home-field advantage, and past performance against the spread.

ATS betting is a popular form of betting that focuses on how teams perform relative to the spread, offering bettors more strategic options beyond just picking the winner. Understanding ATS betting and its dynamics can provide bettors with a deeper insight into the game, making it a key part of sports betting strategies.

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NFL Week 17 ATS Picks and Expert Analysis

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2023 NFL Week 17 ATS Picks: It’s the penultimate week of the NFL season and for many teams, it’s very much do or die. MyBookie Sportsbook NFL Odds, American Football NFL Lines

The playoff spots are starting to fill up, and while we will still probably need to wait until the final week of the season for everything to be decided, there are some teams that will see their postseason hopes coming to an end by the time Week 17 comes to a close. Given how things have gone this season, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to make predictions with any kind of accuracy. We went 2 for 3 with our ATS picks last weekend, so let’s see if we can go one better this weekend. With that in mind, let’s take a look at our ATS picks for Week 17.

New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

We don’t expect any team to make it all the way to the end of the season without undergoing some sort of injury issue. The real problems tend to arise when it is the starting QB that goes out with an injury, but don’t tell that to the Cleveland Browns. They have turned to veteran QB Joe Flacco in the midst of their QB crisis and it is all going very well at the moment, with the Browns heading into the penultimate weekend of the season on a 3-game win streak, albeit against teams you would expect them to beat. They have another one of those games this weekend with the Jets coming to town, especially when you consider that the Browns have covered in each of their last 5 home games.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

It was just a month or so ago when we were all talking about what might be wrong with the Buffalo Bills. They were out of the playoffs and playing well below expectations, but things can change rather dramatically in this league. Buffalo comes into this weekend on a run that has seen them win 3 in a row, including a pair of wins against teams that will almost certainly be in the playoffs. This matchup, by comparison, is much easier, but the Patriots are on a decent run at the moment, winning 2 of their last 3, so don’t expect the Bills to take this game for granted. December is a good month to play the Bills against the spread, as they have now covered in 10 of their last 15 played in that month.

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts

As it stands right now, the Indianapolis Colts are clinging to the final Wild Card spot in the AFC, but they have the chance to make a big jump if they can finish strong. With the Jacksonville Jaguars going in the tank over the past month, the Colts are now tied for the lead in the South, although the Jags still hold the tiebreaker. We may see the script flip, though, if Indy can take advantage of playing at home and get the win, which would eliminate the Raiders in the process. The Colts have certainly been a good bet of late, covering the spread in 5 of their last 7 games, so let’s stick with that trend.

I have read enough, I need to place my bet now. What to do?