Yankees vs Phillies Odds & Expert Analysis

It’s a potential World Series preview and a national TV matchup on Tuesday night as 2023 Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees visit the Philadelphia Phillies, who are short favorites on the MLB odds behind Aaron Nola.

NY Yankees at Philadelphia: 2024 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Lines: Phillies -130, Yankees +110 (total 9)
Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Yankees 4

New York Yankees Moneyline +103

Note that Tuesday is the MLB Trade Deadline, but the Yankees might have made their big move over the weekend in trading prospects to Miami for outfielder/infielder Jazz Chisholm.

Chisholm, who has played center field the past 1½ years, started playing second base in recent weeks, and is expected to play both positions for the Yankees and potentially third base.

He went 1-for-5 with a steal and a run scored in Sunday’s win over the Red Sox in his team debut. That’s 23 steals on the year for Chisholm, which ties a career high from 2021.

Giancarlo Stanton

For Monday’s series opener, the Yanks also activated outfielder/DH Giancarlo Stanton from the IL. The former NL MVP hadn’t appeared in a big-league contest since straining a hamstring on June 22.

Stanton, 32, had batted .246/.302/.492 (119 OPS+) with 18 home runs and 45 runs batted in over the course of 69 games before his deactivation.

During his absence, the Yankees have largely used Aaron Judge at DH, opening a spot in the outfield for Trent Grisham to receive more playing time than he did during the early going.

Top OPS Players

Judge and fellow All-Star Juan Soto are two of just three players in the majors this season currently with an OPS of at least 1,000.

The duo also rank first and second in times on base, walks and on-base percentage, and own two of the top-five batting averages in the majors.

It marks just the second time in franchise history, Yankees teammates have recorded at least 82 walks through the club’s first 107 games of a season.

Gerrit Cole on the Hill

It’s ace Cole, the 2023 AL Cy Young winner, on the mound. Cole (3-2) allowed six runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out for over 5.2 innings to take the loss versus the Mets last Wednesday.

Five of the six runs on Cole’s line came from the three home runs he surrendered. He had posted consecutive quality starts before this setback.

Cole’s now at a 5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 38:12 K:BB through 35 innings over seven starts this season.

After consecutive strong six-inning performances, Cole appeared to be back on track after missing the first 2 ¹/₂ months of the season with a right elbow injury before the Mets roughed up him.

In the span of 19 hitters, Cole allowed eight hits and three homers. He registered just six whiffs in 100 pitches, just two coming on 40 four-seam fastballs.

But he felt this outing had as much to do with a good offensive team having a solid night than him being off.

For his career, he has struggled against the Mets, pitching to a 7.03 ERA in nine starts, giving up an astronomical 14 homers in 46 ¹/₃ innings.

Cole is 6-3 with an ERA of 2.90 and 53 strikeouts in 9 appearances against the Phillies in his career.

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MyBookie MLB Wager Lines to Win Today

Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -120

Phils Trades

The Phillies have made two notable trades so far, landing two 2023 All-Stars in Star outfielder Austin Hays from Baltimore and closer Carlos Estevez from Philadelphia.

The Phils liked Marlins lefty Tanner Scott but worried that he made them too left-handed in the bullpen.

They poked around on Nationals righty Kyle Finnegan, Blue Jays righty Yimi García, and White Sox righty Michael Kopech but settled on Estevez.

Rob Thomson stopped short of anointing Estevez as his closer. He had 20 saves as the Angels’ closer in 34 innings of work while posting a strong 2.38 ERA in that time.

The Phillies’ manager has operated a bullpen without set roles so far. In conjunction with just three home runs allowed this season, it’s left the right-hander with a strong 2.85 FIP, a 2.67 xERA, and a 3.35 SIERA that all ill indicate he has been one of MLB’s best closers this year.

The addition of Estevez should allow Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman, and lefty Matt Strahm to pitch in leverage spots earlier in games, deepening a bullpen that has posted a middling 3.96 ERA (16th in the majors) this year as the club gears up for a playoff run.

Kyle Schwarber

Slugger Schwarber clubbed his major league-leading ninth leadoff home run of the season on Sunday.

He became the fourth active player to reach 40 career leadoff homers, joining George Springer (58), Mookie Betts (52) and Charlie Blackmon (41).

It was Schwarber’s 29th career multi-homer game and fourth of the season.

Two-time MVP Bryce Harper (2,997) entered Monday’s series opener only three bases away from reaching 3,000 total bases for his career.

At 31 years old, Harper would become only the 42nd player in MLB history to reach 3,000 total bases before turning 32 and just the third active player to do so.

Aaron Nola on the Mound

It’s righty Nola on the hill Tuesday. Nola (11-4) did not factor into the decision in last Wednesday’s loss to the Twins, allowing one earned run on six hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings.

Nola came out of the All-Star break slow, allowing four earned runs in five innings against the Pirates in his previous start.

The 31-year-old was much sharper last Wednesday, fanning six batters and limiting the Twins to just one run, a solo home run by Matt Wallner in the second inning.

It was Nola’s 15th quality start of the season, among the most in MLB. He now owns a 3.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 126:31 K:BB across 130.2 innings.

Nola throws his curve 32 percent of the time, which is the most used pitch in his arsenal.

He is 1-2 with an ERA of 2.88 and 31 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Yankees in his career.

Pitching Stats

The Phillies are 27-1 this season when a starting pitcher tosses at least 7.0 innings, and they have won 27 straight which is the longest streak in Phillies history and the second-longest streak in MLB history – the only club to win more than 27 straight games when an SP goes 7.0+ innings was St. Louis, which won 42 straight in 1942.

Bet Yankees at Phillies MLB Odds

When: Tuesday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park
Pitchers (away/home): Gerrit Cole/Aaron Nola
TV: TBS
Stream/game day audio: TBS app ^

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