MLB Astros vs. Orioles Odds and Prediction for Wednesday’s Game

It’s a potential American League playoff preview on Wednesday night when the AL West-contending Houston Astros visit the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles. Both will be in the playoffs, it’s just a matter of if they face off in the postseason for the first time ever. Look at the analysis of this great game scheduled for tonight, so you can bet and win with the MLB betting odds.

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

MLB Week 18: Monday August 7 – Sunday August 13, 2023

How to Bet Houston at Baltimore MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Wednesday, 7:05 PM ET
Where: Camden Yards
Probable pitchers (away/home): Cristian Javier/Jack Flaherty
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games/
Opening MLB Lines: Orioles -115, Astros +105 (total 9)

Why Bet on Houston?

The Astros have been hit hard by injury at times this year but appear to be getting healthy at the right time. Both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have hit the ground running since being reinstated from the injured list on July 26.

With Texas dealing with some major injuries right now, don’t be surprised if Houston wins the AL West again. Earlier this week, the team sent down outfielder Corey Julks to Triple-A Sugar Land. Julks has made more starts in left field than any other Astro this season, but he had been hitless across his last 36 at-bats and hadn’t homered since June 18, which has resulted in a trip back to the minors. Chas McCormick should see most of the action in left moving forward, with Jake Meyers handling center.

Astros first baseman Jose Abreu appeared to be turning a corner of sorts last month as he rebounded from an ugly first half with an .805 OPS across 23 games from July 1-29. As we approach mid-August, Abreu’s woes at the plate have returned. He has just two hits in his last 26 at-bats across the last seven games compared to 11 strikeouts and zero extra-base hits. His OPS+ this season is now 23 percent worse than league average, and of the 25 primary first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances, Abreu ranks No. 24 in slugging, No. 25 in on-base percentage and No. 20 in extra-base hits.

It’s right-hander Cristian Javier (7-2) on the mound Wednesday. Javier did not factor into the decision last Thursday, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a 4-3 loss to the Yankees. He struck out four. Javier was tagged for three runs on back-to-back homers in the first inning, though he settled down and blanked the Yankees over his final 3.2 frames. Javier threw 65 fastballs in his 102-pitch outing, including home run pitches to Giancarlo Stanton and Billy McKinney. Javier was pulled with two outs in the fifth when Baker didn’t want him facing Stanton a third time.

“Some good ones, some bad ones, I would say that,” catcher Martín Maldonado said when asked to evaluate the four-seamer. “But I would say the last time was really, really good and today was better than the Texas game [on July 3]. That being said, I think there was more good ones today than bad ones today.”

Javier has pitched better of late, holding opponents to three runs or fewer in his last four outings after struggling to a 9.14 ERA in his prior five starts. Overall, his ERA sits at 4.39 with a 1.21 WHIP and 107:38 K:BB across 21 starts (112.2 innings) this season. Javier hasn’t faced the Orioles in 2023.

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Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles are awaiting the return of two key hitters from the injured list in outfielders Cedric Mullins and Aaron Hicks. Mullins hasn’t played since July 15, when he strained his right adductor groin muscle while running from first to third base on a foul ball, but he’s close. Hicks hasn’t played since diving for a fly ball on July 24 in Philadelphia and injuring his hamstring. He’s batting .252/.349/.435 with four doubles, a triple, six home runs and 20 RBIs in 42 games with the Orioles after being released by the Yankees. Baltimore has relied on its center field depth while Mullins and Hicks are out. Manager Brandon Hyde can put Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna or Colton Cowser in the lineup.

While the Trade Deadline is in the rearview mirror, players can still change teams as the Orioles claimed pitcher Jacob Webb off waivers from the Angels on Monday. Webb had a 3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and a 34:20 K:BB in 31.2 innings for the Angels this season before getting designated for assignment over the weekend. He’s out of minor-league options, so he will have to join the Orioles.

Baltimore’s big move ahead of the Trade Deadline was landing right-hander Jack Flaherty (8-6) from St. Louis for infielder César Prieto and pitchers Drew Rom and Zack Showalter, all minor league prospects. Flaherty’s Orioles debut was terrific last Thursday as he earned a win in Toronto, allowing one run on four hits and two walks over six innings with eight Ks. After allowing a single and a walk to start the game, Flaherty settled in, retiring 15 consecutive Blue Jays in dominant fashion. His only blemish came on an RBI single by Vladimir Guerrero in the sixth.

Flaherty became the first pitcher to go six or more innings with one earned run or fewer allowed in his Orioles debut since Jeremy Hellickson (seven scoreless vs. Royals on Aug. 2, 2017). He became the second Orioles pitcher to retire 15 or more consecutive hitters in his debut with the team since it moved to Baltimore in 1954 (Dave McNally retired 17 straight on Sept. 26, 1962).

Flaherty’s eight strikeouts were tied for the fourth most in a Baltimore debut (since 1954) and the most since Bud Norris fanned eight on Aug. 1, 2013, vs. the Astros. Flaherty had a strong July (3.03 ERA in five starts) with St. Louis, and he carried that into his first outing of August.

Of Flaherty’s 92 pitches, 19 induced whiffs — including seven of his 12 sliders that were swung at and six of his 10 knuckle-curves that were swung at. He also had great life on his fastball, which touched 97 mph in the first inning for the hardest pitch he’s thrown in any of his 21 starts this season.

“It was fun,” Flaherty said. “New energy, new everything. Sometimes that can be a little tricky but [catcher Adley Rutschman] was awesome back there.”

The 27-year-old has now earned wins in five of his last seven outings despite a 4.00 ERA and 1.47 WHIP across 36 innings during that span. Flaherty hasn’t faced Houston this year and only once previously in his career.

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Expert Prediction

Orioles 6, Astros 5

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