Braves vs. Rays Odds, Analysis, and Betting Prediction

Without question, the marquee MLB series of the weekend starts Friday from Tropicana Field as the Atlanta Braves visit the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup of the two teams with the best records in the sport and a possible World Series preview. Tampa Bay is a short dog on the MLB odds.

Braves vs. Rays | 2023 MLB Expert Analysis

How to Bet Atlanta at Tampa Bay MLB Odds & TV Info

When: Friday, 6:40 PM ET
Where: Tropicana Field
Probable pitchers (away/home): Charlie Morton/Tyler Glasnow
TV: MLB Extra Innings
Stream/gameday audio: Apple TV+
Opening MLB Lines: Braves -120, Rays +100 (total 8.5)

Why Bet on Atlanta?

The Braves were off Thursday and two of three in Cleveland to start this week, capped by an 8-1 rout on Wednesday. Atlanta homered for the 23rd straight game, passing the Rays for the longest such streak this season and two shy of the franchise record. Atlanta has hit at least three homers in 26 of 86 (30.2 percent) of its games this season. It is on pace for 311 home runs this season, which would establish a new single-season MLB record.

“We’ve got a lot of guys who can drive the ball out of the yard,” first baseman Matt Olson said. “I don’t think we’re dependent on [the home run].” Olson’s 29 homers are the most for any Braves player before the All-Star break.

Sean Murphy went 4-for-5 with a double, a home run, three runs scored and two RBIs in Wednesday’s win. He led a 19-hit barrage by Atlanta that saw seven of the team’s nine starters record multiple hits, with Murphy’s biggest blow being a solo shot off Cal Quantrill in the third inning. The homer was Murphy’s third in his last six games and 15th of the season, while the surge has pushed his slash line on the season back up to .305/.397/.580 with 40 runs and 50 RBI in 65 contests. Among catchers, he’s tied for first with Salvador Perez in homers and second to Jonah Heim with 50 RBI.

It’s former Rays right-hander Charlie Morton on the mound here. Morton (8-6) picked up the win in last Saturday’s 7-0 shutout of the Marlins, allowing four hits and a walk over 5.2 scoreless innings. He struck out five. Atlanta scored six runs in the first inning, and Morton cruised from there. Morton also became only the 123rd pitcher in MLB history to reach 1,800 career strikeouts.

The veteran righty has won three straight starts despite some inefficiency on his part, as he’s completed six innings just once in his last eight outings, posting a 4.36 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 56:22 K:BB through 43.1 innings over that stretch. Morton is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA in six career starts vs. the Rays and last beat them in 2018 while with Houston. Morton was with Tampa Bay from 2019-20.

Atlanta hasn’t lost a series since late May, when it dropped two of three to the A’s, who are on pace to lose 100-plus games. Each of Atlanta’s last three defeats have been by one run, and two have come via extra-inning walk-off.

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Why Bet on Tampa Bay?

The Rays had the best record in the majors for much of this season but have been in a bit of a funk for a while and have been passed by the Braves. Since May 2, the Rays are 9-1-2 in series play against teams that entered with a .500 or better record, compared to 0-4-2 against clubs that were below the .500 mark at the beginning of the series.

Ahead of Thursday’s series finale vs. Philadelphia, the team recalled RHP Ryan Thompson from Triple-A Durham to take the place of the demoted Luis Patiño in the Rays’ bullpen. The 31-year-old hurler has registered a 5.94 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and an 11/7 K/BB ratio over 16 2/3 innings at the big league level this season.

Young star shortstop Wander Franco was named to the American League All-Star squad as an injury replacement for Aaron Judge. It’s the first time that the 22-year-old has made the All-Star team but it won’t be the last. If Franco plays in the game, he would become the youngest player in Rays history to play in a Midsummer Classic, surpassing Scott Kazmir in 2006 (22 years, 168 days). First baseman Yandy Diaz and outfielder Randy Arozarena will start for the AL next week in Seattle.

Tampa Bay is looking to become just the sixth team in AL history to lead the league in homers and steals at the All-Star break since the Midsummer Classic’s inception in 1933. They would join the 2015 Astros, 1984 Oakland Athletics, 1962 Detroit Tigers and both the 1955 and 1956 New York Yankees.

It’s right-hander Tyler Glasnow on the mound Friday. Glasnow (2-2) allowed three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings, taking the loss last Saturday versus the Mariners. It was his second-longest outing of the season, and Glasnow has racked up double-digit strikeouts in each of his last two starts. He’s also winless in his last three outings, as the Mariners took the lead for good in the sixth inning. Glasnow’s posted a strong 56:15 K:BB over 36 innings so far, but his 4.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP remain relatively pedestrian as he continues to settle in after missing the start of the season with an oblique injury.

Glasnow has made two career starts vs. Atlanta and didn’t get a decision in either with a 2.70 ERA. Braves star and NL MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. is 0-for-2 off him with two strikeouts.

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Game Trends

• Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Braves are 7-1 in their last 8 interleague games.
• Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
• Rays are 41-14 in their last 55 interleague home games.
• Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 Friday games.
• Under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Tampa Bay.

Expert Prediction

Rays 4, Braves 3

MLB Standings

W: Wins | L: Losses | %: Winning Percentage | GB: Games Behind | STRK: Current Streak | HOME: Record at Home | AWAY: Record When Away

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