Bet on the AL Wild Card Series: Royals vs Orioles – Ragans vs. Burns Pitching Duel

The Kansas City Royals lost more than 100 games in the 2023 season yet are in the American League playoffs one year later.

They are the No. 5 seed and visit the No. 4 Baltimore Orioles in a Wild-Card Round opener on Tuesday from Charm City. The O’s are solid favorites on the MLB odds.

Why Bet on Kansas City?

The Royals were going to be either the AL’s No. 5 or No. 6 seed entering the regular-season finale on Sunday, but KC got the No. 5 with an upset win in Atlanta and Detroit’s loss to the White Sox. Bobby Witt Jr. clinched the AL batting title clinched Sunday by going 1-for-4 at the plate and ending the season with a .332 average, nine points better than Vladimir Gurerro Jr.’s .323 mark.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are ready to lead the @Royals into October 💪 pic.twitter.com/mmKmWlbCxz

— MLB (@MLB) September 30, 2024

Bobby Witt Jr.

Witt played in 161 out of 162 games, and his first off day was not until Saturday, a day after the Royals clinched a postseason berth. Witt played 160 of those games at shortstop, logging 1,384 2/3 innings there. His .332 average ranked first among all qualified hitters in baseball, his .389 on-base percentage ranked sixth, his .588 slugging percentage ranked third, and his .977 OPS ranked fourth. His 211 hits led the Majors. Witt hit 32 home runs, 45 doubles and 11 triples. He drove in 109 runs and scored 125, and he stole 31 bases. He became the first shortstop in MLB history to record multiple 30-homer, 30-stolen base seasons. This will be his first playoff game.

“It’s special,” Witt said of the batting title. “It’s an honor. Something that always kind of — it wasn’t even really a goal, just more like, ‘If you do this, it’s special.’ You never think as a kid that it would happen. And now it happened, it’s special. I think it goes down to this team, just being able to put me in good situations. That’s all I want to do, try to get on, get the guys in, score runs. It’s been a great year. And we’re just getting started.”

Vinnie Pasquantino

Will Kansas City have slugging first baseman Pasquantino? He suffered a broken right thumb on Aug. 29 and hasn’t played since. In 131 games with the Royals this year, he hit .262/.315/.446 with 19 homers in 554 trips to the plate and a 108 wRC+. That made him just one of four Royals hitters with a better than league average wRC.

“We talked as a group in here, when he got hurt,” team captain Salvador Perez said. “The best thing is to try to get him back for the playoffs. So I think he is going to be ready, and I hope, you know?”

The original timetable of 6–8 weeks would have ruled him out of this series at least, but he might be on the roster. If so, he would be the DH. That would leave Yuli Gurriel, who has slashed .260/.361/.320 (96 wRC+) across 17 games with the Royals this year, in place as the club’s first baseman.

Cole Ragans

It’s ace lefty (11-9, 3.14 ERA) on the mound Tuesday in his playoff debut. Ragans made his final regular-season start last Tuesday with six scoreless innings while striking out six in a win over the Nationals. He scattered three hits and never allowed more than two baserunners in an inning. He had a 1.08 ERA in four September starts. Cole didn’t fare well against the Orioles in two early regular-season outings, allowing seven runs across eight innings, with 11 strikeouts and two walks.

“For him to get the ball this year in his first full season as a major-league starter and get the ball in Game 1 of the playoffs is incredible,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “It’s an accomplishment for him, and it’s a credit to the pitching department, medical staff and everybody that’s been able to help him through the course of this year.”

Why Bet on Baltimore?

The Orioles led the AL East for a lot of this season but ended up second to the Yankees and earned the AL’s top wild-card spot. Baltimore has lost eight consecutive playoff games dating back to the 2014 ALCS, when they were swept, 4-0, by Kansas City. The Orioles snapped a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 101-61 and winning the AL East, before being swept in three games in the ALDS by the eventual World Series champion Rangers. Consecutive playoff appearances have been rare for Baltimore, which had only previously accomplished the feat from 1996-97, ‘73-74 and ‘69-71.

Injuries

Since Sept. 15, the Orioles have gotten back Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe in their bullpen, Heston Kjerstad in the outfield and Jordan Westburg, Ramon Urías and Ryan Mountcastle in the infield from injuries. However, the news was not as positive regarding right-hander Grayson Rodriguez (right lat/teres strain), who was shut down during the final week of September and will not pitch again until 2025.

The Record

The Orioles ranked second in the majors this season with 235 homers, reaching 200 for the 13th time in team history, and the 235 are the franchise’s third-most behind the 1996 (257) and 2016 (253) Orioles. Baltimore has nine players with at least 10 home runs, tied with the Braves, Dodgers, and Red Sox for the most in MLB this season: Anthony Santander (44), Gunnar Henderson (37), Colton Cowser (24), Adley Rutschman (19), Cedric Mullins and Westburg (18), Ryan O’Hearn (15), Mountcastle (13), and Ramón Urías (11).

Homers

Henderson and Santander are one of two duos with at least 35 home runs. The Birds have hit 13 leadoff homers, the most by the club in a single season and second in MLB this year behind the Phillies (15). Henderson has 10 of those, second most in one season by an Oriole behind Brady Anderson, who hit all 12 for the club in 1996.

Adley Rutschman

The 26-year-old Rutschman is a terrific all-around catcher and was an All-Star for a second straight season this year, but he’s also been mired in a long second-half slump — he’s batting just .207 with three home runs and a .585 OPS since the All-Star break. And he struggled in the playoffs last year, going just 1-for-12 in the O’s ALDS loss.

Corbin Burnes

It’s ace righty on the mound in what could be his final Orioles start ahead of free agency – he has playoff experience from his time with Milwaukee. Burnes (15-9, 2.92 ERA) pitched five innings of one-run ball and struck out nine last Thursday against the Yankees in his final regular-season start in a loss. Burnes received a quick hook after just 69 pitches to keep him fresh for the postseason. Even with the short stint, Burnes recorded more K’s in a start only twice this season — a pair of 11-strikeout outings on March 28 (Opening Day vs. the Angels) and May 19 (against the Mariners).

Burnes became the first Orioles pitcher to finish with a sub-3.00 ERA in 190-plus innings since 1992, when Mike Mussina had a 2.54 ERA over 241 innings, and Burnes has positive momentum after posting a 1.20 ERA in five September starts. “He was lights-out,” manager Brandon Hyde said after that Yankees start. “He feels good going into the playoffs, and that was the most important thing.”

Burnes was 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA in two starts this year vs. the Royals.

Royals vs Orioles Info

When: Tuesday, 4 PM ET
Where: Camden Yards
Pitchers (away/home): Cole Ragans/Corbin Burnes
TV: ESPN2
Stream/game day audio: ESPN+

Royals vs Orioles Series History

It’s the second all-time playoff meeting between the clubs, with Kansas City sweeping Baltimore in the 2014 ALCS. The Orioles won this year’s regular-season series 4-2, but all the games were early on.

The stage is set 🤩

Which team do you have winning it all? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/ug0SkWgc4F

— MLB (@MLB) October 1, 2024

MLB Betting Center

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